India- Role of Global Trade Flows McDonald Pelz Global Commodities A PRESENTATION BY McDonald Pelz Global Commodities

Not Bad Enough ( to ignore) Global Trade and India Use One word to Explain consistency of India in Global Markets: Bad Use two words for consistency/importance of India in Global Markets: Not Bad Please explain consistency of India in Global Markets : Not Bad Enough ( to ignore)

The Irrelevant Factors Population Precipitation Production Peripheral Prospects/Prices

Direction of Global Trade Consuming Countries population possibly will increased steadily Producing Countries will see stagnate population Welcome to Asian and African Markets Population in Million

China and India (Soybean Vs Veg Oil Import Index) ‘000mt, Source: USDA Veg oil import growth in India is more phenomenal than China soybean import story

Changing Demographics will put lot more stress on Land resources… More mouths to Feed Source: Population Reference Bureau MCDP Analysis India will become most populated nation by 2030 Agriculture under stress Urban population expected to increase at rapid pace- consumption will increase South Asia will become worlds biggest demand hub Changing Demographics will put lot more stress on Land resources…

Love IT… Hate IT… but you cannot Ignore IT ‘000mt, Source: USDA India has critical Role to Play in Global Supply Chain across all commodities

Indian Monsoon last 145 Years- the rare events Monsoon is the key to Production Monsoon failed for 3 continuous years 2 times before 1965-1968 and 1983-7 Lead – Green revolution Increase in Irrigation Potential Let us Hope 2016 has good rains in store for us… Otherwise ………. Source: IITM

Wheat and Corn Growing Areas Wheat Areas Corn Areas Stable 4 Variable 4 Variable- All

Highly Monsoon sensitive Areas Soybean and Mustard Sown Areas Soybean Areas Mustard Areas Variable Highly Monsoon sensitive Areas

El Nino and Impact on Indian Production All no in mMT Impact of current year El- Nino is still to be seen on wheat crop next year 2016-17 crop Expected impact on rice crop is higher due to dry spells in southern peninsula Rain deficit in key pulses regions lead to big rally in pulses prices in 2015-16

Important balancing Role in Global Supply Demand Economics Global Supply Hedge El- Nino Effect on Global Crop Production India was the biggest exporter of grains, oilseeds and meal in the Asian region Important role in global supplies -la nina Global production shrinks- india act as supply hedge India proximity to - freight spread India stayed food self sufficient. 2008-15 Important is to understand – Indian exports increases mainly in years of global deficit Source: FAO Paper Important balancing Role in Global Supply Demand Economics

Global Markets and India Years of Indian Surpluses- La Nina Years of Indian Shortage- El Nino India/South Asia Rest of world World waiting for India to Export Global Markets waiting for India to Import

Global Changes and Maize Brazil is going through big drought-Gois, Prana and Mato worst affected regions

Global Changes and Maize ‘000mt, Source: USDA SE Asia Trade Flow has grown at faster pace than India Production Growth .. Domestic consumers need to be aware of global markets …

India’s Role in Global Wheat market ‘000mt, Source: USDA Poor US/Black sea crops and higher carry-out stocks leads to Export of Indian wheat Low Government carry out stocks in India and expectation of poor crops lead to imports In year of low stocks market enter period of higher volatility

India’s Role in Global Corn market ‘000mt, Source: USDA India Corn exports act as hedge against US supplies fluctuations (Weather Pattern) So Buy Chicago- Sell India gives a good trading hedge to cover for short positions

India Prices Indian markets today can trade around 215 Freight of 15 usd FOB 200 CNF Port 185 Ex Origin 165 INR Value – 11200 Chicago goes higher- 500 CNF 240 FOB 225 CNF Port 210 Ex Origin 195 INR Value – 13260 Market Analysis

Perception of Indian Corn- Quality Global Trade- Standardized Indian Exports- Customized

WE PROVIDE INSIGHTS- Beyond Data and Information to our Customers SoAM Black Sea Asia- Producer and Consumer of grains and Oilseed- we are here to cater your requirements China Demand Wheat Market sumit@mcdonaldpelz.com +91-7042537773

Worldwide McDonald Pelz India Office 111, Centrum Plaza Sector-53, Gurgaon India Phone: +91-7042537773 sumit@mcdonaldpelz.com McDonald and Pelz is a cash grain, oilseed, and renewable energy brokerage organization whose aims and goals are to help our customers in the buying and selling of their products. Over the past 32 years McDonald and Pelz has become the industry leader and it is our objective to maintain this status through our growth globally.