Connectivity and Super Supply Chains AIAA Enterprise Chapter of Los Angeles AIAA Western Office Ken Dozier Executive Director, WESRAC 10/17/2006

The Western Research Application Center http://ttc.usc.edu/ learningcenter/ presentations.asp

WIRED Project Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development initiative "Innovation, education and entrepreneurship: those are the keys that will open the door to challenging and rewarding jobs." Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, February 2, 2006 WESRAC is a funded-partner of WIRED Interface with industry/economic development academia to support/develop education/training resources Create sustainable innovation economic development model Identify candidate companies for projects

The Future “When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight” Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric Source: John F. Welch, Jr. Chairman / CEO General Electric’s 2000 Annual Report

Velocity “ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago” Source: Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency, South Bay Economic Development Partnership, “South Bay of Los Angeles County Workforce Perspective", October 2001

Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985 What is Knowledge ? Truth Knowledge Belief Universal Social Personal No Debate Converge on debate Diverge on debate Effect Cause Cause Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985

Technologies Change Fast Bio-Tech Info-Tech WWW Nano-Tech Source: SRI International 2002

Anchor and Adjust “where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949 “This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us” - Western Union, Internal memo, 1876 “The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949 “I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” - Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001

Global Competition 1. USA Singapore Iceland Canada Finland Denmark 2. Hong Kong Singapore Iceland Canada Finland Denmark Switzerland Australia Luxembourg Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 2005

6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce Denationalization Decentralization Disaggregation Despacialization Demassification Disintermediation Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild March 2000

Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999

Exponential Economy An increasing attribute of our knowledge age Copyright SRI International 2002

Computing Synergy 2 9 28 Possibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value 2 Possibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value 9 28 Copyright SRI International 2002

Media Bandwidth 10^12 10^11 10^10 HDTV Video 10^9 Bandwidth Required DSL/ Cable IEEE 1394 / Firewire Gigabit Ethernet LASER / Fast Ethernet 10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet Microwave G2 Wireless G3 / Wireless LAN Async. Trans. Mode (ATM) G1 Wireless 10Gig Ethernet Voice Internet Access Gaming File sharing Digital Music NTSC Video VHS Video MPEG Video DV Video HDTV Video 10^11 10^10 10^9 10^8 10^7 10^6 10^5 10^4 Bandwidth Required Bits/sec (bps) 120 Gbps 12X QDR InfiniBand 10^12

High Performance Grid Computing

What’s up? The United States initially was the world leader in broadband deployment. Now it has plunged to 19th place. While the United States is still first in absolute number of broadband lines, its lead will soon be overtaken by China. Source: http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0601, January 2006

How Important is Broadband? The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could lead to a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic productivity over the next decade, as well as more than 1.2 million jobs that could be created by better broadband. Source: The Brookings Institute 2004

Europe is getting it City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FTTU throughout the city. http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86384 Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying FTTU throughout “all of Paris.” http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=86547 The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a citywide FTTU network that will provide residents 1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity. http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/68912

How Important is Computing? Walmart Perspective If you can understand your data, you can do predictive analysis. It’s an advantage if suppliers can link into Walmart’s systems and perform their own analyses using Walmarts’s complex tables - CTO Walmart (September 2006) Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006

How Important is Computing? Pratt & Whitney Perspective Building models on the computer is faster and lower-cost, and you can look at any level of detail. Digital models are the basis for innovation. Suppliers also do modeling and simulation to speed development and reduce costs. We take a lot of time determining whether suppliers can use these tools. - Chief engineer for systems analysis & aerodynamics, Pratt & Whitney (September 2006) Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006

How Important is Computing? NICE: Fill the Expertise Gap Never Ever User NICE: Move Users Forward Competitiveness Transformation Challenge National Innovation Collaboration Ecosystem (NICE) Entry Level HPC User Number of Users Number of Applications Experienced HPC User “Heroes” World Class Computing Mid Range HPC User “Missing Middle” 1 2 4 64 Nodes 1,000 10,000+ Source: USC ISI

Dynamic Systems Common modes of behavior in dynamic systems Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000

Exponential Growth How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be? How thick would it be after 100 folds?

Exponential Growth The Answers 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.) 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun!

The Beer Game Steady state at 4 cases per week.

Connectivity

The Beer Game - Not Sharing The system after only a single change from 4 to 8 case.

The Beer Game - Sharing Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change in the system.

Findings Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of co-dependency. Knowledge sharing between members of the supply chain tend to suppress the damage created by unwanted oscillations. Grid computing can create a B2B trust environment that creates super supply chains.

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