Overview of WRAP Emissions Projections RPO Emissions Discussion Group Meeting April 15, 2005

Presentation Topics Background Overview Point/Area Mobile

Evaluation of 2018 WRAP Region Haze Control Strategies June through September 2005 2018 Base Case Definition   ·      Known control programs, i.e., what emissions will be in 2018 if no additional controls are adopted ·      Projected from 2002 emissions (2000-04 in the case of fire emissions) 2018 Base Case Control Programs  ·      Federal on-road and non-road mobile emissions ·      §309 SIPs (5-state SO2 Annex) · =  Controllable fire emissions (use 2000-04 baseline for 2018) ·      Point and area sources: 1)      Statutes and rules “on the books” as of 12/2004 to be implemented before 2018 2)      Sources to be operational before 2018 (permitted and under construction as of 12/2004) 3)      Includes quantified SIP measures, NEAPs, EACs, MACT, etc. 4)      Accounts for economic and demographic factors October 2005 through March 2006 2018 Regional Control Options ·                  California PM2.5 and ozone SIP measures ·                  BART- individual eligible sources added up for regional analysis ·                  Point Source backstop cap and trade for BART + other point sources, options for: · Regional NOx · Regional SO2 · Nested §309 SO2 · Others? ·                  Fire - greater application of Emissions Reduction Techniques for fire emissions to meet definition of regionally consistent enhanced smoke management programs – sensitivity evaluation ·                  Dust - greater control levels and/or spatial extent of existing Dust Control programs – sensitivity evaluation Not for regional analysis Ø            Area sources in general Ø            Dust sources in general

WRAP Emission Inventory and Control Technology Technical Support Task 1: Inventory Improvements and Projections Focus on controls and % emission reduction Oil and gas sources and emissions Projections to 2018 Task 2: Control Technology Analyses Task 3: Tribal/Reservation-Specific Inventories

Point/Area Inventory Improvements Review, QA, improve 2002 baseline inventory for point and area sources to support control strategy development Focus on completeness for facilities, source categories, pollutants, control information Developing master database for data selection: 2002 EDMS for S/L/T 2002 and 1999 NEIs 1996 WRAP inventories Examining CAMD data for EGUs

Projections to 2018 Make adjustments before growth to achieve 2018 baseline: New/retired sources since 2002 New regulations since 2002 Agreements/enforcement actions since 2002 NEAPs, EACs Atypical operations for point sources Special cases: California sources CENRAP sources Oil and gas Atypical operations: EGUs based on CAMD data, EGRID Non-EGUs based on comparison of 2002 to 1999, info from S/L/Ts

2002 Emissions 2018 Emissions Oil and Gas Emissions CA Emissions 2002 Point Sources 2002 Area Sources All Others Refineries Smelters EGUs Other Population-based Livestock Sources Energy-based CENRAP Emissions 2018 Baseline Emissions E-GRID/ Clean Air Industry Information EGAS Agreements, Enforcements, New Rules, Regulations, NEAPs, EACs, etc. DOE Pop. Proj. USDA Revised 2002 Inventory (excluding fire and windblown dust) Retired Point Sources 2018 Point Sources New Point Sources Adjustment for 2002 Atypical Operation QA Checks: Compare to permit limits; others TBD

Projecting Growth EGUs Non-EGU Points Area Sources Generation demand from EIA Capacity factors New facilities Known locations Unknown locations Non-EGU Points EGAS by sector Area Sources DOE – Energy USDA – Agricultural Population – (e.g., consumer solvents, ind/com categories EGAS – Other categories

Control Technology Analysis Analyze control strategies for EGUs for all pollutants (NOx, SO2, PM, and VOC) including emission reductions and costs Identify control strategies for top emitting non-EGU categories (e.g., oil and gas) for all pollutants Develop 3-5 regional control scenarios to include all pollutants with emission reductions and costs estimated

Deliverables Improved 2002 Emission Inventory Emission Projections to 2018 base case 3 to 5 Regional Control Scenarios BART applied to BART-eligible sources as one scenario

Oil and Gas Emissions Projections Issues Anticipated expansion of oil and gas production, especially coal bed methane (CBM) production. Varying regulation of the industry from state to state. Nonlinear and rapid growth in some areas (e.g., Wyoming had 2,431 gas wells in 1989; 4,950 in 1999; and 18,154 in 2003 [EIA]).

Oil and Gas Emissions Projections Information sources for projections BLM Resource Management Plans for information on Reasonable Foreseeable Development. State and Tribal oil and gas management contacts to obtain growth forecasts and controls anticipated Filling in the gaps with Energy Information Administration (EIA) growth forecasts.

On-Road Mobile Source Projections Emission factors from MOBILE6 Survey of state/local agencies for Model input parameters Future year controls Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecasts

Non-Road Mobile Source Projections Traditional non-road sources Emission factors, federal controls, and growth factors from EPA NONROAD model Modeling inputs from survey of state/local agencies Aircraft – FAA landing and take-off (LTO) projections by aircraft type for each airport Locomotive Activity projections based on historic fuel consumption trends or state freight tonnage estimates Emission factors adjusted for fleet turnover with effects of Federal standards Commercial marine Activity projections based on historic freight tonnage data