Climate Change Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2014 January 14, 2012

Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 2008 and 2010 Class On Line: http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html And in particular two subsections Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm Note specific assignment on Ctools site

Today Who are we? Course Description Overview Some Questions and Discussion Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

What is the Point of View that I Bring? Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, high-performance computing. Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders. Wunderground.com “expert” blogger Teaching this course for the eighth time. Changes every year. Current research – improving the use of knowledge about climate change in policy and planning.

I have a student who will be helping with the class Michele Newstadt Doctoral student in science education Graduate of this class

The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

Who are we? Name: Major or Interest: Any particular reason you wanted to take this course. Questions of help guide response: Homework question – last week’s cold period, where do you get your news? When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction? Do you think that the planet is warming? Is this warming consequential? Is this warming manmade? Can we do something about it?

What is the Point of View that I Bring? “Complex problems with no known solutions.” There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs. Blog data base. http://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Page

Syllabus https://ctools.umich.edu/portal/site/4f11c141-a060-4ceb-8013-cb851961192c/page/0b943b09-73c1-42c3-8c28-09df0df8e0b0

From Course Description Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc. Where should we pay attention? What do we know versus what do we believe? Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements How big is the problem? How is all of this changing? This is not a math-oriented course

Course requirements Because of diverse nature of students and issues associated with climate change and the attributes of real world problem solving discussion is vital. There will be a few readings, and you will write short responses (order of 1 page) submitted prior to the lecture through Ctools.

Course Project Reflective of workplace … “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.” Groups of individuals with varied expertise Instructors will assign Responsive to “news” Relationship of news to science Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the complex problem. What are first steps? What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken? Monitor progress // briefing during the course Presentation at end of course

Course News Project Grade will be primarily determined on the project Start to think about them – perhaps even today Teams that bring together several elements of the project Should be no larger than 4 people. Should not be your friends that have the same background. Should be defined by late January I will provide a template for thinking about the problem. Some guidance in defining projects We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course That means I will provide management / customer oversight. Final presentations at the end

Course News Readings and Participation This semester I will have some modest requirements during the term in addition to the project. Reading and Response Descriptions of key figures What do I mean? 4 or 5 papers to read and discuss The world 4 degrees warmer

Climate Change Relationships Consumption // Population // Energy ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION SOCIETAL SUCCESS CONSUMPTION

Projected Global Temperature Trends 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC ‘01

Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change Some global climate predictions

The motivator: Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)

The prediction: Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial. The prediction: This is a remarkable opportunity. We have knowledge, with a high degree of confidence, what is likely to happen in the future.

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data. giss. nasa See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data. giss. nasa See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years Figure SPM.3. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961–1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal average values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {FAQ 3.1, Figure 1, Figure 4.2, Figure 5.13}

What parameters/events do we care about? Temperature Water Precipitation Evaporation Humidity Air Composition Air quality Aerosols Carbon dioxide Winds Clouds / Sunlight Droughts Floods Extreme Weather The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate

information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … What are the pieces which we must consider? (what are the consequences) Security Food Environmental National ...???... Societal Success Standard of Living RELIGION POLICY ECONOMICS ENERGY ?????? “BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, … SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Thanks