Principal Investigator: Siegfried Schubert

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Presentation transcript:

Principal Investigator: Siegfried Schubert Project Title: On the Causes and Predictability of Multi-Year North American Droughts Principal Investigator: Siegfried Schubert Science issue: To better understand the causes of past and current droughts, including the potential impact of global warming, and to assess the predictability of droughts. Approach: Carry out C20C simulations as well as idealized SST experiments to assess impact of the different ocean basins, soil moisture feedbacks, and vegetation changes on drought. Off-line LSM simulations to assess drought conditions. Satellite-based data: GPCP, CMAP, MODIS, TRMM Models: NSIPP-1 and GEOS-5 AGCM, GLDAS with Mosaic, comparisons of idealized simulations with CCM3, CAM3, GFS, GFDL/AM2.1, and CFS. Analyses: NCEP R1, ERA40, JRA25, MERRA Study Period: 1900-present, warming scenarios, focus on satellite era as well as idealizes SST simulations. Project status: Year 1 & 2 major finding –improved understanding of potential predictability of droughts in US Great Plains*, quantified impacts of the different ocean basins on US drought. Assessed robustness of soil moisture anomalies in land surface models. Year 3 (final) – completed most of the climate model runs, and undertook initial comparison of the model results. Current work is focused on isolating model dependence by comparing runs with all the major US climate models forced with identical SST anomalies. Will carry out further analysis of seasonal forecasts for 2006 and 2007 for Integration project #2 - plan to make available to the NEWS team. Schubert, S.D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, and J. T. Bacmeister, 2008: Potential Predictability of Long-term Drought and Pluvial Conditions in the United States Great Plains. J. Climate, 21, 802-816. Koster, R. D., Z. Guo, P. A. Dirmeyer, R. Yang, and K. Mitchell, 2008: On the nature of soil moisture in land surface models. Submitted to J. Climate. Schubert, S.D., M. J. Suarez, P. J. Pegion, R. D. Koster, H. Wang and J. T. Bacmeister, 2008: A mechanistic study of the impact of SSTs on drought and pluvial conditions over the United States. Manuscript in preparation. Wang, A., T. J. Bohn, D. P. Lettenmaier, S. Mahanama, and R. D. Koster, 2008: Multimodel ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental United States. Manuscript in preparation. NEWS linkages: (pull, push, collaborate, external) Collaborate with other members of NEWS team – analysis of AMIP simulations and atmosphere-land-ocean coupled model hindcasts for Integration project #2 Contribute to the USCLIVAR drought working group Contribute to NIDIS activities - prediction and monitoring The response of the various models to the Pacific ENSO- like SST pattern (warm - cold phase). The left panels are for precipitation (mm/day) and the right panels are for surface temperature (°C). S. Schubert, Updated: 4 April, 2008