Some Climate Change FAQs Walter Whiteley May 2013 whiteley@yorku.ca

1. Increased Carbon Dioxide (Keeling Curve) http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/

1. Increased Carbon Dioxide Questions Is this man-made? Is it higher than anything in the last 800,000 years? What are the impacts on Oceans, Atmosphere? How long will it last?

1. Increased Carbon Dioxide Sources http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ explore on different time scales. Each has a different message of chaos and pattern

2. Ocean Acidification

2. Ocean Acidification CO2 enters Oceans (makes acid) More acid oceans changes key parts of the ecology (Coral, shells) … Change in species in particular environments (extinction) How long does the new equilibrium hold? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification Interactive resources: http://i2i.stanford.edu http://i2i.loven.gu.se/AcidOcean/AcidOcean.htm

3 Continuing carbon emissions? Global Warming ttp://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/04/23/1903001/the-hockey-stick-lives-new-study-confirms-unprecedented-recent-warming-reverses-2000-years-of-cooling/?mobile=nc

3. Continuing carbon emissions? Global Warming Do carbon emissions (and other emissions – methane etc.) warm the planet? Are there other sources which can compensate / dominate these human causes? There are differences (more change in the north, less in the equators) What are the risks if we are still uncertain? Is temperature alone (including ocean temperature) the key problem?

3. Do continuing carbon emissions imply Global Warming? How sensitive is the average temperature to CO2 levels? Skeptics say atmospheric warming has slowed: http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions scientists say same total heat but more went into the ocean: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/04/the-answer-is-blowing-in-the-wind-the-warming-went-into-the-deep-end/

4. Global Warming and extreme weather

4. Global Warming and extremes weather

4 Global Warming and extreme weather More humidity stronger events Amplification (bigger waves) and slower movement Dry gets dryer, wet gets wetter Systems can stall – many snow storms, flooding then hot drought in summer …

5 Sea Level Rise http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise

5 Sea Level Rise Melting ice sheets, glaciers Expansion of water due to warming (1 m?) Risk of storm surges (extremes) http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html A student’s guide to global warming: http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/impacts/signs/sea-level.html

5 Sea Level Rise http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/impacts/signs/sea-level.html

6 A budget for carbon emissions? v http://www.vancouverobserver.com/blogs/climatesnapshot/do-oilsands-threaten-our-safe-climate-hansens-game-over-vs-olivers-minuscule

6 A budget for carbon emissions? When I was younger – concern over peak oil (scarcity). Now concern about too much oil, coal … Is there a maximum safe limit for carbon sources we can burn to create CO2? How would this be determined? If there is a budget – whose resources will be left ‘in the ground’? If there is a budget, who will have the right to use the associated energy? Will your pension plan go bust investing in oil / coal? Do the Math:  http://math.350.org

7 Communication Barriers http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/15/2014211/study-finds-97-consensus-on-human-caused-global-warming-in-the-peer-reviewed-literature/

7 Communication Barriers http://www.physicstoday.org/resource/1/phtoad/v64/i10/p48_s1?bypassSSO=1 http://www.wilsoncenter.org/dialogue-program/severe-weather-and-climate-change-there-connection http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/ http://www.climatecentral.org/

7 Communication Barriers Rhetorical devices: repetition: http://environment.yale.edu/climate-communication/article/sixAmericasMay2011 Story (narrative) or formulae / graphics Metaphors to live by: e.g. “climate Is like body temperature: there is a safe range beyond which there is major risk”: Graphics, sequences of graphics, animation Mathematics is a barrier to public communication: numerically and visually Does this illustrate a fundamental failure of Math Ed? What does research show works / does not work? http://climateandcapitalism.com/2009/11/23/naomi-klein-on-climate-debt/

7 Communication Barriers hope works better than fear: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n8/full/nclimate1610.html Adapting or Mitigating … (prepare for it or prevent it) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptation_to_global_warming http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/climate-mitigation-and-adaptation.html