SA Economic Indicators: for the month of August 2013

SA Economic Indicators BASKET WEIGHTING 2008 Food 15.7% Petrol 4.8% Electricity 1.9% Inflation Updated September 2013 2008/2009 Recession BASKET WEIGHTING 2012 Food 15.4% Petrol 7.3% Electricity 4.2% Source: StatsSA

SA Economic Indicators Inflation: CPI by Category Updated September 2013 Fuel and electricity price hikes push food prices up Electricity inflation drops due to Eskom tariff adjustment (increase cut from 25% to 16% ) Electricity inflation drops due to Eskom tariff increase of 8%, lower than previous years and a decrease in consumption (-1.8% YOY) Source: StatsSA

SA Economic Indicators Inflation: CPI by Food Type Only 4 food types are experiencing inflation below the monthly headline. Note the high rate in vegetables, inflation has grown by 1% from January 2012 to July 2013 Updated September 2013 Source: StatsSA

SA Economic Indicators Inflation: CPI by Province Updated September 2013 3 of the 9 provinces are experiencing inflation above CPI levels Source: StatsSA

SA Economic Indicators Inflation COMMENTARY Headline CPI annual inflation rate in July 2013 was 6.3%, 0.8% higher than in June 2013, falling in line with the Reserve Bank estimates On average, prices increased by 1.1% between June 2013 and July 2013 The food and non-alcoholic beverages index was unchanged between June 2013 and July 2013 The housing and utilities index increased by 2.1% between June 2013 and July 2013, as a result of a 9.4% increase in water tariffs, a 7.2% increase in electricity tariffs and a 6.1% increase in assessment rates. PPI for final manufactured goods increased to 6.6%, the highest rate this year Although the Reserve Bank has factored in that consumer inflation is moving above the 3-6% target, some speculate that it may be forced to increase the interest rate sooner rather than later should the Rand deteriorate further The inflation rate averaged 9.53% from 1968 until 2013, reaching an all time high of 20.9% in January of 1986 and a record low of 0.2% in January of 2004

Kim Furber | Online Support Helga Altenroxel | Retail Analyst tel +27 31 303 2803 fax +27 31 303 4560 info@tradeintelligence.co.za Kim Furber | Online Support Helga Altenroxel | Retail Analyst Kate Shirley | Independent Retail Analyst Maryla Masojada | Head Research Disclaimer These materials and the information contained herein are collated by TI* referencing a wide range of public domain data sources, face-to-face interviews, retailer presentations and financial reports, and are intended to provide general information about the South African consumer goods trading environment and selected retailers, and are not intended as an exhaustive treatment of such subjects. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information published in this work is accurate, your use of these and the information contained herein is at your own risk. The information is not intended to be relied upon as the sole basis for any decision which may affect you or your business, and TI makes no express or implied representations or warranties regarding the accuracy of the information herein. TI will not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, consequential, or punitive damages or any other damages whatsoever, whether in an action of contract, statute, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), or otherwise, relating to the use of these materials and the information contained herein. TI expressly disclaims all implied warranties, including, without limitation, warranties of merchantability, title, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, compatibility, security, and accuracy. * TI refers to The Retail Workshop (Pty) Ltd trading as Trade Intelligence Other Sources ABSA Agri Trends; BizCommunity; Bloomberg; Business Day; Business Report; Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Financial Mail; Finweek; Fin 24; The Mercury; Reuters; Stanlib, Sunday Times; Sunday Tribune; The Times ; www.businesslive.co.za; www.businessweek.com; www.moneyweb.co.za; www.supermarket.co.za; thesouthafrican.com