Model evaluation with low-altitude GOCE densities

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Presentation transcript:

Model evaluation with low-altitude GOCE densities Sean Bruinsma CNES - Space Geodesy Toulouse, France PREGO: ESA CONTRACT 4000115173/15/F/MOS Adrian Jäggi, Daniel Arnold – AIUB, Bern, Switzerland Noelia Sánchez-Ortiz – Deimos Space, Tres Cantos, Spain

Introduction CIRA models are evaluated: NRLMSISE-00, JB2008 and DTM2013 GOCE density data from 11/2009 – 11/2013 is used (270-170 km), scaled to HASDM (operational Air Force model) Metric: mean, sigma, RMS and correlation of density ratio O/C Evaluate long (years), medium (month) and short (day) time scales GOCE (2009 – 2013): Acc. resolution: 1·10-12 m/s2/Hz0.5 ion propulsion GPS and SLR inclination: 96.5° Altitude: 270-170 km densities 0.1Hz, precision 1-2%

Introduction GOCE densities: Low altitude Low-medium solar activity 6-8am/pm local solar time Models: solar proxies: NRLMSISE-00: F10.7 JB2008: S81, F10.7, M10 DTM2013: F30 ftp://ftpsedr.cls.fr/pub/previsol/solarflux/final

Long time scales – O/C On time scales of year(s), JB2008 and DTM2013 are nearly unbiased (mission design, lifetime estimation)

Daily time scales – O/C NRLMSISE-00 Mean / s of annual time series: 1.058 / 0.051 of monthly time series: 1.055 / 0.067 of daily time series: 1.047 / 0.098

Daily time scales – O/C JB2008 Mean / s of annual time series: 1.035 / 0.020 of monthly time series: 1.032 / 0.042 of daily time series: 1.034 / 0.066

Daily time scales – O/C DTM2013 Mean / s of annual time series: 1.007 / 0.014 of monthly time series: 1.006 / 0.037 of daily time series: 1.005 / 0.061

Daily time scales – RMS of (O/C – 1) Mean/s : 0.101 / 0.027 Mean/s : 0.117 / 0.038 Mean/s : 0.143 / 0.047

Daily time scales – correlation DTM2013 No solar rotation period Mean / s of daily time series: 0.943 / 0.028 (NRLMSISE-00: 0.930 / 0.033) (JB2008: 0.934 / 0.031)

Summary and Conclusions High resolution GOCE densities available CIRA models evaluated in the 270-170 km altitude range DTM2013 and JB2008 most accurate, NRLMSISE-00 biased (slope) All models biased for lowest activity in 2009-10, most NRLMSISE-00 Standard deviation of CIRA models at the 10% level (1-s) High correlation, variation with solar rotation period reproduced Representative results for all local times (using CHAMP, not shown) Model errors at time scales of months: unexplained (ap/kp?) Still large model error for enhanced-storm conditions