International Association of Law Enforcement Planners - SW Tucson, Feb. 13, 2007 Tucson Police Academy McGillacudhy’s Law: Pure drivel drives out ordinary drivel

Socio-Economic Factors And Why you care ARIZONA = CHANGE Socio-Economic Factors And Why you care

Population: Next 30 years

PAST IS PROLOGUE ? Original port of entry was Guaymas - early Anglo entrepreneurs married a ‘Mexican Connection’ Coming of the railroad in 1880 changed the axis of trade from North-South to East-West. Alliances fell by the way. Our new ‘Port of Entry’ may return to Guaymas or Topolobampo. NAFTA-Land returns the original pattern Bilingual kids are appreciating assets not liabilities. They will make the alliances in Latin American our generation did not accomplish. CANMEX TALES The trade of Mexico west of the Sierras must come to Tucson before it goes east-west to Texas and California. About 85% of the shipments through Tucson go to one or the other. See the Mexican trucks. See the trucks bypass Nogales but stop here to offload cargoes at multimodal centers. See Tucson grow.

Arizona: 2036 – Top 5 State? During the next 30 years, AZ will add another 8.5 million residents to the 6.2+ million current population This would make AZ the 5th largest state – the size of Illinois today Only California, Texas, New York and Florida would be larger Population growth driven by migration from the Rust Belt, California and Latin America/Asia Rapid growth in Hispanics will make AZ ‘younger’ than most forecasts predict. Metro Phoenix will be 10 million; Tucson about 1.75 mil.

AZ’s Economy – 2036 More than 14.6 million will call AZ home, 4% of the nation’s pop. Over 20% of the population will be 65 or more – today it is 12% Working age population will decline from 66% to 59% of the total – youth and seniors grow more than do workers Per capita incomes will remain below the national average and will decline from 85% of national to 80% in 2036. AZ will become “overpopulated” and “underdeveloped” Transfer payments to seniors will be significant source of personal income Leading job sectors will include: professional and business services, health care and social services, transportation and warehousing, leisure and hospitality and trade AZ’s goods producing sectors’ share will continue to decline

Our growth is fueled by migration Our growth is fueled by migration. This is partially driven by jobs, by retirement and by educational opportunities. High Turnover - Low Psychological Equity About 30% of the population has been here less than 5 yrs. About 54% of the population has been in their present home less that 5 years. 300,000 people who think there is an “N” in Wilmot. Hard to organize anyone Hard to convince folks we are all on the same lake in the same boat Low knowledge of issues among citizens - low interest in public affairs Must stay on message as the audience just changed!

The City of Tucson’s density is about 2,500 folks per sq. mile. This is not far from that of other Western cities, but well below major population centers, even that of Los Angeles. We don’t have the density to make many transportation options work. If we wanted to change our transportation modes, we would have to select much denser land use patterns or radically configured ones - e.g., ‘desert villages’. However, most of us moved here to get away from such density. Many lust for ‘17 acres and a horse for Johnny’.

HISTORICAL RACE %: 200 Centuries = 100% Native Americans Then, we were Spain; for 200 years Then Mexico for 30 yrs AZ south of the Gila River; Then INTO the US - BY an accident - We become Hawaii - with no group being a majority - by 2007? The exact year is irrelevant, the trend is all.

The classic ‘Triangle’ shape of the age-sex pyramid is fading away.

The age-sex pyramid has become a rectangle. Suggests more liberal politics The greed generation turns socialist

Big growth in women super seniors. Baby boomers have inherited 9 trillion dollars Baby bust presents marketing challenges Note the baby boom echo I and II are smaller

A tsunami of older housing is soon to hit the beach. What will be the replacement for all the cheaply constructed housing built after the big war? Nearly all the fix-ups will have to be funded locally.

The central issue of the last 30 years in Tucson has been the LOSS of real incomes for our workers. We are on the path to recovery, but we are still behind where we were in 1973 !

Content from: The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006 Robert Lang, Virginia Tech John Hall, ASU

Business 2.0 November 2005 Megapolitan Area Centerfold

Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography

Evolving 20th Century Metropolitan Form

21st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form

ArizonaSun Corridor

Arizona Sun Corridor’s Types of Urban Realms Description Realms Urban Core Original core of metropolitan development. Cores are dense and often built out. Central Valley Tucson Valley Favored Quarter The most affluent realm containing upscale housing, retail, and office space. Northeast Valley Foothills Maturing Suburbs Rapidly developing suburbs with mature older sections and booming edges. East Valley West Valley Emerging Exurbs The most scattered and detached urban development in the region. Exurbs contain the most affordable housing. Mid Corridor Northwest Valley Santa Cruz Valley San Pedro Valley

Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

Housing and Equity

The Sun Corridor: 10-20 % Average Annualized Rate of Domestic Net Migration – Where Will These People Live? Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

The Sun Corridor is a Destination for People who are Relocating Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)

“The West is The Best” - Jim Morrison, The End, 1967 Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

Estimated Median Market Value Source: www.zillow.com

ArizonaSun Corridor

Housing Appreciation Source: www.zillow.com

Housing Burden Source: www.dataplace.org

Overcrowded Housing Source: www.dataplace.org

Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic Golf Links to Social Links: The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic Median age of White population in Arizona: 40 Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years. Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market. Inclusion of elderly family members in household. Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a priority ‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive Less resistance to attached housing The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.

Big growth in women super seniors. Baby boomers have inherited 9 trillion dollars Baby bust presents marketing challenges Note the baby boom echo I and II are smaller

Education

Education in the Sun Corridor How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?

“Living on the Kindness of Strangers” Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average

English Language Learners (ELL) Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%) Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs

Higher Education in the Sun Corridor In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th) Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th

Community Colleges Sun Corridor is a national leader The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students) Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training

Leading Realms in Higher Education State Universities-Main or Branch Campuses Other Educational Institutions of Note Central Valley ASU West, ASU Downtown Center Several community colleges Thunderbird School of Management East Valley Main Campus ASU ASU East Several community colleges Tucson Valley University of Arizona Pima Community College

Exurban Realms State Universities- Main or Branch campuses Other Institutions of Note Northwest Valley None Prescott College Yavapai College Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Santa Cruz Valley San Pedro Valley Cochise College

Very Underserved Realms State Universities- Main or Branch Campuses Other Institutions of Note West Valley None One community college Northeast Valley Mid-Corridor Foothills

Economy

Economic Composition Leading Industries Secondary Industries Construction/Real Estate Consumer Services Secondary Industries Aerospace Producer Services F.I.RE Law, Marketing High-Tech/Bio Military Entrepreneurial Opportunities Baby Boomer Bio Western Product Gateway Next Generation Infrastructure

Realm by Realm Assets, Opportunities & Challenges

Employment Centers

Evolving 20th Century Metropolitan Form

Economic Development in the Realms Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs Assets Prescott Airport Opportunities Anthem Lake Pleasant Challenges Connectivity to Phoenix Transportation Corridors West Valley: The Sleeping Giant Assets Available Land Mass Airports Opportunities Future freeway corridors (303, 801) Building [sub]urban core from scratch Challenges Getting someone to test the water

ArizonaSun Corridor

Economic Development in the Realms Central Valley: Employment Center Assets Downtown Phoenix Sky Harbor I-10 Distribution Corridor Opportunities Redevelopment Stadium/Arena Challenges Aging Infrastructure Suburban Flight Residential Composition Northeast Valley: The Crown Jewel Assets Camelback Corridor Scottsdale Airpark Deer Valley Airport Opportunities Old Towne Redevelopment Palisene Challenges Affordability Infill Opportunity

ArizonaSun Corridor

Economic Development in the Realms East Valley: Young & Emerging Assets ASU Chandler/Price Corridor Mesa Airports Opportunities SanTan Corridor Original Core Redevelopment Challenges Available Land Mid Corridor: In the Crosshairs Assets Phoenix Regional Airport 1-10 and I-8 Opportunities Land, Land, Land Intermodel Hub of Region Challenges Cohesive Land & Transportation Planning Sense of place as connecting point between Phoenix and Tucson

ArizonaSun Corridor

Economic Development in the Realms Foothills: Uptown Assets Wealth Resorts Opportunities Oro Valley corridor Marana Challenges Connectivity to Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor Tucson Valley: Downtown Assets UofA Downtown Tucson Opportunities Employment Center serving all 4 Tucson realms Challenges Transportation

ArizonaSun Corridor

Economic Development in the Realms Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway Assets I-19 Opportunities Transition center between Mexico/US I-19 connection to/from Mexico Challenges Connectivity to other realms San Pedro Valley: Still Camouflaged Assets Fort Huachuca Opportunities Transition center between Mexico/US I-10 connection to El Paso Challenges Connectivity to other realms

Infrastructure

Population Growth=More Congestion Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region (in millions of miles)

Highway Projects in Sun Corridor

Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps

CANAMEX

Sun Corridor pop. weighted to north I want to start by looking at what has driven the Sun Corridor’s airport plan: not surprisingly, it’s where the people are. Here are the housing units projected by MAG just four years from now, a reasonable accurate projection. And here is MAG’s projection for housing units in 2050. Note the expansion occurs in all realms, but the most explosive growth is in the Mid-Corridor, shifting the population center south. Housing Units 2010

Airports follow the people … So, let’s add the airports. In 2010, the balance seems about right. Phoenix is adds Williams Gateway in the East Valley realm as a reliever, and other airports in the western and northeastern realms are planning improvements to be similarly used. 2010

Northern tier’s realms dominate Sun Corridor aviation PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations TUC: 4 million passengers 43,000 air carrier operations The aviation sector is heavily imbalanced in the direction of the northern sun corridor, a result of the population imbalance and the multiple realms surrounding the central valley. To give an idea of this imbalance: Sky Harbor enplaned more than 20 million passengers last year, and ran more 555,000 flights By contrast, Tucson International enplaned slightly more than 4 million passengers and ran 284,000 flights, the majority of which were small planes. (58%) So, the question for the Sun Corridor is:

Pop. balance shifts south Housing Units 2050 Here are the housing units projected by MAG just four years from now, a reasonable accurate projection. And here is MAG’s projection for housing units in 2050. Note the expansion occurs in all realms, but the most explosive growth is in the Mid-Corridor, shifting the population center south. Housing Units 2010

Where will the next PHX be? But the MAG projection shows a shift to the south in population. So, should the reliever model in short term, give way to the regional model in the long term? Likely, a reliever airport in Casa Grande or Maricopa in the Mid-Corridor would emerge as the regional airport, due to the convergence of open space, and even of …. 2050

Is the Sun Corridor DFW or LAX? Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model Less complex, for passengers, industry Better control of environmental issues Requires authority Los Angeles = reliever system Redundancy Complex airspace, connection, access Shares economic burden, boom Recent trends  PHX = LAX That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network? Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX? Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits. Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it. So, is that a good idea?

And will rail be included? MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it Lack of connection between north, south, Mid Increasing population pressure from Mid Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from both north, south and Mid That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network? Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX? Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits. Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it. So, is that a good idea?

In and Out of the Sun Corridor Freeways/Highways: Congestion—Central Corridor Tucson must build highways Need for increased planning between realms Revenue challenge Aviation Current population imbalance drives reliever system, LAX style Southward population shift may demand regional airport in Mid-Corridor Regional airport, population pressure may push rail effort That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network? Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX? Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits. Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it. So, is that a good idea?

Environment and Open Space

Active Management Areas

AMA Annual Use

Sun Corridor: Water Water Central AZ Project (CAP) Active Management Areas (AMAs) Correspond to Sun Corridor Grouping based on the realms of influence, permitting growth Allows areas to recharge groundwater – especially important in non-SRP areas Salt River Project allows for greater growth of realms within it: NE, E, Cent., W Consists of reservoirs, storing runoff from mountains Infrastructure built to sustain agriculture, now used for residential supplies, also for landscaping

Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure Central AZ Project (CAP) Active Management Areas (AMAs) Correspond to Sun Corridor Grouping based on the realms of influence, permitting growth Allows areas to recharge groundwater – especially important in non-SRP areas Salt River Project allows for greater growth of realms within it: NE, E, Cent., W Consists of reservoirs, storing runoff from mountains Infrastructure built to sustain agriculture, now used for residential supplies, also for landscaping Salt River Project watershed

Central Arizona Project

What Future?

General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy But Realms also Need More Effective Integration and Coordination

Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications Core Realms Infill and Redevelopment Favored Quarter Realms Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing Maturing Suburbs Realms Create Mixed Use Centers Emerging Exurban Realms Open Space Preservation

Major Issues Increased access to goods and services by means other than the automobile. Mobility can not be reserved for the wealthy. Preservation and revitalization of older portions of the community - reinvestment, infill, and rehabilitation. We must build upon a century of investment.

Major Issues Increased commitment to environmental quality and protection of endangered species. We need to buy open space and sensitive areas suitable for preservation. Construction of land use patterns that unify communities rather than divide them. Increased development of master-planned communities rather than subdivisions done in isolation.

Major Issues Support for the poor and needy Reduction of poverty Increase in real household incomes Commitment to education, both K-16 and workforce training Recruitment of 21st Century jobs Retention and expansion of existing businesses

Major Issues Funding of public services by appropriate, urban revenue sources. We must tax services. Our students may not progress? Regional approaches to regional problems “The time for action is past, Now is the time for mindless bickering.”

Major Issues Sprawl, however defined, is NOT the Issue nor is density, congestion, transit, the environment, preservation, taxes, mixed-use, or growth. The issue is whether or not we can make a more sustainable community rather than a collection of revenue starved, competitive, parochial fiefs.