The climate challenge Manmade Affecting billions of people What should be done? Is it possible to reverse the development? Mads Løkeland: mads.lokeland@hist.no Høgskolen i Sør Trøndelag

Sustainable level to stay below 2oC temperature increase Combustion Change of land use Manmade greenhouse gas emission from combustion and changing in land use

Millions at Risk (Parry et al., 2001) Graph: Meinshausen 2004

Disaster for poor countries

2050: 1 billion climate refugees? "We estimate that, unless strong preventative action is taken, between now and 2050 climate change will push the number of displaced people globally to at least one billion,“ The Christian Aid report, may 2007 5

You should build large cities to receive large numbers of climate refugees. Professor James Lovelock Oslo, november 2007 Lovelock thinks that the Scandinavian countries, as climate winners, should receive large numbers of climate refugees. It is too late to talk about sustainable development. Time has come to talk about how to save the human race. 6

6 mill refugees to Scandinavia ? Where is it possible flee from the effects of climate changes? The Scandinavian countries are winners in the climate game – how many refugees should we receive? 2 mill? 4 mill? 6 mill? How many to Vasa? 10 000? 20 000? 30 000? Dramatic questions like these, could be realistic in the near future Generally seen Scandinavia is going to be more attractive when the climate changes in Europa increase in strength Are we prepared for this ? What can we do to halt the leap in climate changes ? 7

International ranking: Greenhouse emissions / capita Sweden Norway Finland

Emission of greenhouse gases in tons of CO2 eq/ capita USA 24 Finland 16 Norway Sweden 12 10 World IPPC: To keep temperature rise less than 2oC: 6 China India Zambia 3,8 1 1 0,2 Is it possible to reduce our emissions of CO2 to 1 ton/ capita ?

Scandinavian level as model for the rest of the world: 2 000 000 000 new cars The world cannot sustain our level of car use due to: use of energy use of land use of other resources We have to drastically reduce the number of cars on the roads 10

Energy use EU (and Norway) is planning to cut energy use with 20% by 2020 We should cut energy use with 50% or more by 2050, and that energy should be without greenhouse gas emissions Efficient use of energy in industry Some examples New range of electric motors Use of industrial waste heat in district heating Produce electricity from low temperature heat Low power electronics Active use of heat pumps to reuse internal energy Buildings The passive house standard should be implemented in new buildings and restoration of existing buildings New range of energy efficient light equipment Constructing buildings to take care of solar energy, both passive and active