UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD 1. How does your model/application fit into the mesoscale suite? 2. How do you see your model/application evolving in the next 3-5 years? Beyond 5 years? 3. How do you think we can simplify the suite for your given model/application?

Rogers (NAM), NMMB, Fire Wx UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD NAM Question 1) Day 1-3 mesoscale guidance for North America (parent 12 km); day 1-2 “situational awareness” for convective systems and other high impact weather (3 km nests); fire weather support and/or on-call short-term (0-36 h) nowcasting for specific events (1.5 km fire weather nest) Question 2 and 3: NAM 12 km parent turned off or subsumed into SREF w/RAP; NAM nests subsumed with HiResW/HRRR into the future convective-allowing High Resolution Ensemble Forecast system running with the new dynamic core Rogers (NAM), NMMB, Fire Wx

‣ ‣ ‣ ‣ UMAC NCEP Production Suite Review 9 August 2016 Unified Model Suite – Regional Nests Tom Black ● Progress under NEMS/NUOPC ‣ NMMB is operational under NEMS in NAM with multiple static nests. ‣ Successfully used NEMS/NUOPC layer in dynamic 2-way coupling of static regional NMMB domain to regional HYCOM (NESII/EMC/FSU). ‣ Telescoping moving nests now being inserted into that domain; will help establish a baseline for skill and computational speed in such applications. ● Challenges ahead ‣ Unavoidable system complexity increases the difficulty.

Benjamin & Alexander, RAP/HRRR; (WRF ARW), RUA See separate slide

Mehra, HWRF UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD Hurricanes 1. How does your model/application fit into the mesoscale suite? 2. How do you see your model/application evolving in the next 3-5 years? Beyond 5 years? 3. How do you think we can simplify the suite for your given model/application? Operational Hurricane Guidance HWRF (now), HNMMB (future) Next 2-3 years: HWRF evolving to HNMMB running in NEMS; 3-5 years: 1-3 km moving nests in FV3 Implement multiple static and moving nests globally, with one- and two-way interaction and coupled to other (ocean, wave, land, etc.) models using NEMS infrastructure. Mehra, HWRF

A Generalized Nesting Approach for Global-to-Vortex Scale Hurricane Prediction Seamless, reliable and timely 1-7-day Tropical Cyclone guidance for our global customers The Hurricane problem is a global problem - requires both large domain and 1-3 km resolution for end-to-end predictions (Tracks, intensity, genesis, land fall, storm-surge, severe weather etc.) GFS is used for tracks and HWRF used for intensity (and tracks to some extent) Our global customers (NHC, WPC, SPC,NIO) would love to have Global model for intensity! What we already have beyond GFS and Non-Hydrostatic HWRF ? Non-hydrostatic global FV3 model core with static nesting and NEMS framework (NGGPS) Next Generation Generalized nesting framework (NGGNF) in NEMS will allow multiple atmospheric models or multiple instantiations of the same model (one serving as a parent and another serving as a high-resolution nest) to be coupled together for the purpose of nesting. Two way interactions possible - Thanks to NGGPS! Experimental, Basin scale HWRF (multi strom nested version of the 2016 operational HWRF) operating at 18:6:2 (storm.aoml.noaa.gov) – Thanks to HFIP! Two-step unification strategy within NEMS: FV3 core with regional moving nests (2 years), FV3 core with high-resolution moving nest (3-5 years) Possible time lines for unification FV3 coupled to regional nests (e.g., HWRF/HWRF-Basin/HNMMB) via NGGNF (2 years); Inner core data assimilation for 1-3 km nest (2 years); FV3 model with high resolution (1-3 km) moving nest for global TCs (2-5 years) The hurricane problem is a global problem. At this time GFS does tracks and HWRF does intensity. Our forecasters would love having GFS doing intensity! Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan (AOML/HRD) UMAC Review: Meso-Unification

Du, SREF (NMMB, WRF-ARW) UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD 1. How does your model/application fit into the mesoscale suite? 2. How do you see your model/application evolving in the next 3-5 years? Beyond 5 years? 3. How do you think we can simplify the suite for your given model/application? SREF: Providing uncertainty information for mesoscale forecasts 3-5 years: evolving to 3-5km convection-permitting scale ensemble; beyong 5 years: 1-3km convection-resolving ensemble Unifying with NAM, NAMnest, HiW, RAP and HRRR runs into one single ensemble system Du, SREF (NMMB, WRF-ARW)

UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD 1. How does your model/application fit into the mesoscale suite? 2. How do you see your model/application evolving in the next 3-5 years? Beyond 5 years? 3. How do you think we can simplify the suite for your given model/application? Improve NAM physics, SREF diversity GWD, Cu, micro, cloud-rad, land sfc (12 km) Micro, PBL/shallow Cu (3/4 km nests) “Scale aware” physics - e.g., partial cloudiness + Cu for coarse grids vs graupel at hi-res (g/s gray zone); shallow Cu for hi-res (PBL gray zone); 2-moment vs. rules-based 1-moment micro, aerosol-aware to provide CCN, IN, …; limit meso runs to be hi-res only to ≤48 h Unify global & meso efforts around FV3, allows meso to focus on high-res issues, collectively tackle scale-dependent issues w/ global colleagues Ferrier, Meso Physics

Pam Heinselman (Program Manager) and Lou Wicker (Chief Scientist) UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD Pam Heinselman (Program Manager) and Lou Wicker (Chief Scientist) 1) Generate reliable and calibrated on-demand, regional sub-hourly cycled storm-scale forecasts that enable extended warning lead times for high-impact weather threats. 2) 3–5 yrs: Evolving from 3-km CAM to 0.5–1 km convection resolving model and to an increased TRL through collaborative research and evaluation by researchers and forecasters within the NOAA HWT. 3) At NCEP, a single-core 3-km ensemble-based CAM system for mesoscale and coarse cloud-scale prediction, like HRRRe, will serve as the parent nest within which WoF nests are launched. Such a system will greatly facilitate the eventual deployment of the WoF system in the 2020’s.

UMAC Review: Meso-Unification Tong, Data Assimilation (HWRF) 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD HWRF DA Initialize tropical cyclones with dynamically consistent structure and intensity using high-resolution observations; Initialize HWRF to provide real-time numerical forecast guidance for tropical cyclones.   3-5 years: evolve from 3D hybrid to 4D hybrid scheme; from vortex scale analysis to convective scale analysis with the initialization of cloud/hydrometeors. Assimilation of high-resolution aircraft observations; ground based radar observations; high-resolution satellite AMVs; satellite all-sky radiance. Unified DA system for all basins. Cloud-resolving TC initialization through the assimilation of high-resolution observations can be subsumed by basin-scale system or global system, when the capability of running multiple moving nests within the basin-scale domain or global model is available. Tong, Data Assimilation (HWRF)

UMAC Review: Meso-Unification: Data Assimilation 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD 1. How does your model/application fit into the mesoscale suite? 2. How do you see your model/application evolving in the next 3-5 years? Beyond 5 years? 3. How do you think we can simplify the suite for your given model/application? Mesoscale data assimilation efforts (DA) all use the GSI to assimilate observations and provide initial conditions to our regional atmospheric models (NAM, RAP, HRRR, etc.). 3-5 years: Develop convection-allowing (possibly hybrid) ensemble data assimilation and prediction system. Beyond 5 years: Potentially work toward in-lining the DA system with the atmospheric model, e.g. a continuously running ensemble with coupled model and DA components. Two ideas for long term simplification. Work toward adopting the NGGPS-global model for convection-allowing applications to facilitate regional dynamic core unification with global. Embrace the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) Carly, Data Assimilation (NDAS)

UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD HiresWindow Provides a mini-ensemble of convection-allowing (CA) mesoscale solutions; utilized primarily for severe weather and short-term (< 2 day) QPF guidance. Planned transition next year to becoming an operational “SSEOlike” pseudo-ensemble - providing enhanced probabilistic guidance and serving as a performance baseline for more formal CA ensembles to come. Over the 3-5 year period it should be subsumed by the eventual true High Resolution Ensemble Forecast system, and cease to exist in the production suite. Pyle, HiRes Window

UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD RTMA/URMA: Generate surface and cloud field analyses to support NDFD operations; to use for verification, bias correction, calibration (including for the National Blend of Models project); and to initialize AWIPS forecast grids. 3-5 years: Evolve into hybrid variational/ensemble system. Possibly subsumed by the 3D system Rapid Update Analysis (RUA); beyond 5 years: Subsumed by RUA Difficult to simply the suite. RTMA/URMA or RUA at a later stage are likely to remain stand-alone systems since the focus is on producing analyses that match the observations as “much as possible,” as opposed to creating well-balanced initial conditions for model forecast. That prevents complete integration with high-resolution analysis system designed for model initialization. Pondeca, RTMA/URMA

UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD Van der Westhuysen, Near-shore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) On-demand downscaling of the global wave model in US coastal regions (except Great Lakes), driven by forecaster-adjusted official wind fields for product consistency. Addition of high-impact coastal hazard guidance, including rip currents, wave runup/erosion risk (total water level), surf zone and inlet forecast (coupling with OFS systems). Centralization from 36 WFO-apps to single WCOSS model already represents significant simplification. Possible regional-combining of domains, but will impact user needs and Concept of Operations.

UMAC Review: Meso-Unification 9-11 August 2016, Silver Spring, MD National Water Model The NWM complements members of the mesoscale modeling suite by generating high-resolution streamflow analyses and forecasts at 2.7 million stream reaches across the CONUS, along with 1km output of water resource parameters. The model will be used to inform the full range of forecast and water management activities, from droughts to floods. Over the next 3-5 years, working with NOS and NCEP partners, the NWM will evolve to include more complete representation of coupled freshwater-ocean processes. It will also be enhanced to support hyper-resolution nested windows for flash flood and urban forecasting, and inundation mapping, and will include enhancements to support dry-side (drought) prediction activities and increased ensemble prediction capabilities to respond to the strong stakeholder demand for uncertainty information across all forecast time scales. Integration with EMC modeling efforts will be examined where supported by scientific and operational mission requirements. Beyond 5 years, emphasis will be placed on water quality capabilities. A simplified set of upstream NWP models for QPF and other forcings would enhance NWM guidance utility and NWS product consistency. Targeted integration of select OWP and EMC land surface/hydrologic tools could improve the efficient use of resources. Cosgrove, Hydrology