Briefing notes WASA book Andre Otto 082 877 0128

Historical South African Wind Atlases DME; R. Diab 1995 SARERD, 2001 Tripod Review of Wind Energy Resources in South Africa (2002) concluded: These studies are inconclusive and under estimate the true wind energy potential as weather measurement stations at 10 m were used and in may cases these stations are shaded by buildings etc from measuring the true wind potential; and Recommended that a dedicated wind energy measurement program be undertaken to confirm South Africa’s true wind energy potential

Outline WASA WASA methodology WASA main results Application Conclusion Acknowledgements and Implementation team

Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) : The Wind Atlas for South Africa is a Capacity Development and Research Cooperation Initiative of the South African Department of Energy (DoE). Phase 1 (2009 – 2014) covers Western Cape and parts of Northern and Eastern Cape provinces and were funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) R8 million with UNDP support through the South African Wind Energy Programme (SAWEP) and co-funded by Danida (DKK9.9 million). Phase 2 (2014 to 2018) to cover the remaining areas of Eastern Cape, KZN and Free State provinces and is funded by Danida (DKK 12 million) SAWEP Phase 2 (to commence) include support to cover the remaining areas of the Northern Cape province SANEDI (South African National Energy Development Institute) executing agency – contracting the implementing partners coordination and dissemination UCT CSAG (Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town) mesoscale modelling CSIR (Built Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research) Measurements, microscale modelling, application SAWS (South African Weather Service) extreme wind assessment DTU Wind Energy* (Dept of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark) partner in all activities

WASA Methodology Six work packages (WPs) WP1 Mesoscale Modelling WP2 Wind Measurements WP3 Microscale Modelling WP4 Application WP5 Extreme Wind Atlas WP6 Documentation & Dissemination, see: http://www.wasaproject.info

WASA Main Results: Wind Measurements for Verification “you can’t manage what you can’t measure” 10 minutes data and graphs available online: http://www.wasa.csir.co.za Data download: http://wasadata.csir.co.za/wasa1/WASAData Table showing the mean wind speed for some of the WASA sites for the first year and after three years’ measurements with an excellent data recovery rate. The measured wind data is used to create the statistics of the wind at each of the WASA meteorological stations that are used to verify the Numerical Wind Atlas.

WASA Main Results cont: Verified Numerical Wind Atlas (VNWA) VNWA for South Africa, based on WRF, launched in April 2014 (generalised wind climate – flat terrain, 3 km x 3 km grid spacing) (WRF Weather Research & Forecasting model)

WASA Main Results cont: Extreme Wind Atlas 1:50 yr 10 min wind speed [m/s] @ 10 m above ground level (standard conditions)

Application: Extreme Wind Atlas Providing input data 1:50 yr 10 min average wind speed (standard conditions) in calculating the 10 minute average wind speed at hub height that is used to determine the Wind Turbine Class that would stand the extreme winds. Outside energy sector – Informing national building standards, since wind constitutes most critical environmental loading affecting structural design of built environment in South Africa

Application cont. Wind time series data The wind time series are particularly useful: to study the annual, seasonal and diurnal variations in wind resources; as input to power system modelling; to study the geographical cross correlation of wind across South Africa; and for long-term corrections of the wind resources given by the WRF wind climate files.

Application cont. WASA Large Scale High Resolution Wind Resource map Large-scale high-resolution wind resource map launched in April 2014 (local wind climate, 250 m grid spacing) with the mean wind speed

WASA Large Scale High Resolution Wind Resource map usage The high-resolution wind resource map depicts the local wind climate that a wind turbine would encounter. It also offers important benefits for developers, policy makers, utilities and the industry, including the following: Saves time and costs as the bankability of a potential wind farm site can now be estimated and physical wind measurements are only undertaken for bankable wind sites. Levels the playing field between small and large industry players to identify and develop wind hot spots. Assists Government in estimating the real wind resource potential. Identifies possible wind development zones in line with the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) studies or in line with frameworks. The DEA’s SEA for solar photovoltaic and wind is an example of such an SEA study and is available at http://www.csir. co.za/nationalwindsolarsea/ Long-term grid planning to connect with high-potential wind development areas. Wind farm planning in positioning (micro siting) the wind turbines for optimal wind exposures.

Conclusion State of the Art Wind Atlas method Public domain through websites Transparent methodology no “black box” Verified with proper wind measurements, traceable Data + Application, Guidelines, Training Level playing field Save time and money Not a substitution for mandatory wind measurements http://www.wasaproject.info/ (information, presentations etc) http://www.wasa.csir.co.za (wind measurement mast online graphs) http://wasadata.csir.co.za/wasa1/WASAData (final reports, guides, data downloads) WRF http://veaonline.risoe.dk/wasa (WRF wind forecasting) Numerical Wind Atlas database access through Tadpole http://wasaclimates.eu/Tadpole/Viewer?gid=08aee5e5-e31f-416a-ad12-9a7a4d26f92e

Acknowledgements and Implementation team WASA Project Steering Committee (PSC): Noma Qase (DoE), Surprise Zwane (DEA), Dee Fischer (DEA), Somila Xosa (DST), Tumi Mailula (DST), Maria Mbengashe (UNDP), T Mali (SANEDI), A Otto (SANEDI) Past members: Carsten Laugesen, Winnifred Mandhlazi, Dominic Milazi, Jacques Pretorius WASA Phase 1 Contributors: Claire L Vincent (DTU), Jake Badger (DTU), Joakim Refslund (DTU), Patrick Volker (DTU), Karen Enevoldsen (DTU), Michael Rasmussen (DTU), Poul Hummelshøj (DTU), Steen Arne Sørensen (DTU), Søren W Lund (DTU), Mark C Kelly (DTU), Morten Nielsen (DTU), Tom Cronin (DTU), Charlotte McBride (SAWS), Snyman Sekele (SAWS), Yvette Spamer (formerly with CSIR), Adam Goliger (CSIR), Johan Retief (US) WASA is a technical partner and included in the IRENA Global Atlas for Renewable Energy and used in the verification of the EUDP Global Wind Atlas in progess.

WASA Implementation team Work package SANEDI CSIR DTU SAWS UCT (GSAC) WP1 Mesoscale modelling   Andrea Hahmann Chris lennard Students: Brendan Argent Chris Broderick, Teboho Nchaba Tich Mukunga. WP2 Wind Measurements Eric Prinsloo Eugene Mabille WP3 & 4 Microscale Modelling & Application Stefan Szewczuk Jens Carsten Hansen Niels Gylling Mortensen WP5 Extreme Wind Atlas Hans E. Jørgensen Xiaoli Guo Larsén Andries Kruger WP6 Documentation & Dissemination Thembakazi Mali Andre Otto

Minister of Energy, Tina Joemat-Pettersson (speech delivered by Acting DG at the Windaba 2014) “I am now happy to say the key results of the First Phase that have been independently verified by a team of scientists working on the Wind Atlas project of South Africa using both numerically modelled data and practical observational methods and analysis, confirm that South Africa has an excellent wind resource” The WASA Phase 1 Book can be downloaded here http://www.wasaproject.info/docs/WASABooklet.pdf [link go live on Monday 7 Sept 2015]