HOW DO YOU WANT YOUR VOTE TO COUNT? Alternate Electoral Systems Townhall Featuring Dr. Robert MacDermid Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, York University Sponsored by the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association AGENDA Welcome Dr. Robert MacDermid – Alternate Electoral Systems Community Dialogue Q&A with Dr. MacDermid Wrap up and Next Steps 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association OUR GOALS To engage our neighbours in a way that empowers each of us to participate fully To provide the opportunity for everyone to tell their story and share what is important to them To offer an inclusive and respectful way for us to work together 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association GUIDELINES Listen carefully and with respect Everyone gets an opportunity to speak Speak for yourself & participate as equals Respect others’ opinions Agree to disagree - with ideas, not people Silence cell phones 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

WHY THE CHOICE OF ELECTORAL SYSTEMS IS IMPORTANT “How about this: in a democracy, each person’s vote should count for as much as every other.” “For example, it took roughly 38,000 votes to elect each Liberal MP in the last election. By contrast, it took 57,000 votes to elect each Conservative; 79,000 to elect each New Democrat; 82,000 to elect each member of the Bloc Québécois. And of course, the nearly 603,000 people who voted Green were rewarded with exactly one seat.” “In the 1993 election, you’ll recall, the Conservatives, with 16 per cent of the vote, were reduced to a humiliating 2 seats. Meanwhile, the Bloc surged to 54 seats on the strength of … 13.5 per cent of the vote, while the Reform Party, with less than 19 per cent of the vote, got 51 seats.” Andrew Coyne National Post January, 11, 2016 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association Dr. Robert MacDermid Associate Professor, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies - Department of Political Science Expert in municipal government and Canadian politics 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

What electoral systems do Creates representation and government out of millions of individuals’ choices It influences or reflects the choices we have, the number and ideological variety of parties. It influences what issues or political divisions (i.e. religion, geography, culture, gender, occupation, wealth, language) get organized into conventional politics or it reflects them It influences how we vote: how we think of and express our choices, (i.e. for a party, person, or leader) It determines how parties are organized, how they and candidates campaign, what issues they choose to campaign about. It contributes, or detracts from the legitimacy of a democracy 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

The related elements of an electoral system The ballot structure object of the vote (lists, individuals, parties) the number of votes the type of votes (nominal, ordinal, numerical) The Constituency structure The number of districts or constituencies The number of representatives per constituency The winning rule majority, plurality, proportionality and thresholds Outcomes measured by proportionality: the difference between the popular vote and seats in the legislature 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association Diversity of systems National, state, provincial and municipal elections in the same country sometimes use different systems Head of state elections for say a president, can use a different electoral system from that used to elect a legislature Different electoral systems can be used to elect upper and lower assemblies in the same country i.e Australia I am going to talk mostly about national assemblies or lower houses or parliaments Every electoral system is unique 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Families of electoral systems Plurality (1 more vote than anyone else) Often called SMP, single member plurality, or FPTP, first past the post Majority (50% plus 1) Ranked ballot or alternative vote, AV Repeated ballot or Two Round Systems (France, party leadership races) Proportional representation (PR) list (i.e. Israel, Denmark) transferable vote systems (IRL) Mixed systems mixed (MMP mixed member proportional (i.e. NZ, DE) 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Electoral systems in use in National Legislatures 2016 Abbr Countries % Examples First past the post FPTP/SMP 48 22.0 Many former British colonies Alternative Vote AV 2 0.9 AUS, PNG Two Round Systems TRS 19 8.7 FRA, IRN, CUB, VNM List PR PR 81 37.2 ARG, AUT, BEL, BRA, GRC, IDN, ISR, TUR Single Transferable Vote STV 3.7 IRL, MAL Mixed Member Proportional MMP 8 DEU, NZL, MEX, BOL Two or more systems   10 4.6 CMR, PAN Parallel 20 9.2 JPN, KOR, PAK, PHL, RUS, VEN Other i.e. SNTV, BV 28 12.8 218 100.0

1. Single Member Plurality (SMP) or First past the post FPTP Used in countries associated with the United Kingdom: Canada, UK, India, USA, New Zealand (up to 1993), other African, Caribbean and Asian countries. How it works Single member constituencies or districts Vote for a candidate usually with a party label Nominal vote or an X beside one individual Plurality winning rule (1 vote more than anyone else) 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

FPTP strengths and weaknesses Stability in single party government (?) Strong opposition (?) Promotes broad based parties . Parties of the center of the political spectrum, big tent parties Excludes “extremist” parties (extremist from whose perspective? Green party?) Maintains accountability by preserving link between member and constituent (but ED size makes this unlikely) Allows voters to choose between people rather than parties (but most vote according to party not local candidate) Simple Some possibility of electing independents   Weaknesses Minor parties not represented fairly unless they are regional greivance parties Lack of proportionality: governing majority party seldom wins a majority of votes (3) promotes regional parties and parties built on ethnic or religious divisions and discourages smaller parties with broadly distributed support (4) large number of “wasted votes” that effectively go unrepresented (5) lack of government accountability or responsiveness (6) single member districts open to boundary manipulation

FPTP and proportionality Clinton got 2.1 million more votes than Trump. 1997 Canada: Reform won 19.35% of the vote to the PCs 18.92%, but Reform won 60 seats and the PCs only 20. The NDP with 11% of the vote got one more seat that the PCs. Many strange examples that challenge legitimacy 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Results for Manitoba seats in the 1926 federal election Political party % of votes in province No. of seats in House % of seats Conservatives 42.2% 0% Liberal Progressive 19.5% 7 41% Liberals 18.4% 4 24% Progressives 11.2% Labour 8.7% 2 12%

2. Alternative Vote (AV) Sometimes called preferential or instant runoff voting Discussed in Canada and recently has become an option for Ontario municipal elections Recommended by a United Kingdom commission but lost in a referendum in 2011 Used in British Columbia provincial elections in 1952 and 1953 and used in other subnational, party leadership and legislative elections. How it works Single member districts Voter ranks the candidates from “1” (most preferred) to the number of candidates. Ballot looks the same as FPTP but candidate ranked instead of a single one being chosen Majority winning rule so a candidate that has won a majority (50% + 1) of the first preferences is declared elected. If no candidate has a majority of first preferences, the candidate with the fewest first preferences is eliminated and their second preferences are redistributed. This is repeated until one candidate has a majority.

AV strengths and weaknesses Diminishes divisions and partisanship by forcing candidates to court second preferences. Leads to broadly based centrist appeals. Major and minor parties try to strike deals on preference swapping.   Weaknesses The winner is sometimes determined by the second preferences of the least preferred candidate. Produces disproportionate results Requires a good deal of knowledge on the part of the voter 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

2. Two Round Systems Used is under 10% of nations to elect national legislatures. Often countries that were former French colonies. Multi-round systems used in Canadian party leadership races. How it works Two elections or two voting days separated by weeks. Single member districts. Ballot looks the same as FPTP and you put an X by your favoured candidate. Winner must have 50% plus one. If that occurs in the first round there is not second round. If no one has a majority, only the top two candidates go to the second election where the winner will have majority.

TRS strengths and weaknesses Winning party/candidate has a majority Voters allowed more information about final race than in AV Campaigning period between two voting days Stability Forces parties to combine for second ballot Simple to understand Accountability through single member constituencies Weaknesses Multiple and costly elections Extremist candidates (Le Pen) may get to a second round because of multiple candidates Not a real majority of first preferences 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

3. List PR Proportional Representation The most frequently used system to elect national legislatures (37%) There are many variants of List PR that make each system unique. One important difference deals with a voter’s ability to alter the oprder of the names on the party list of candidates Another has to do with the seat allocation formula or how the quota is determined Another has to do with the threshold for representation, the minimum percentage of the vote required to win a seat in the legislature

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association How it works Usually just a few constituencies or even just one (ie Israel) and with several members elected from each (multi-member districts) The ballot lists parties or in some variants candidates running for each party will appear on the ballot and voters can change the order. The list of candidates and their order of selection is usually made up by the party in advance A candidate is elected when a party gets a quota of votes which is simply the total votes cast in the district divided by the number of people to be elected There are procedures or formulas that do this in different ways but they produce similar results. Usually a threshold or minimal percentage of the vote a party must win to be allocated a seat 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

List PR strengths and weaknesses Proportionate results % of votes = percentage of seats in the legislature More representative legislature Depending on the threshold chance for minor party representation Few wasted votes List allows or promotes candidate diversity Coalitions can produce more efficient government Ideological as opposed to geographical representation   Weaknesses Unstable coalition governments No geographical link between member and voters diminishes accountability Numerous parties (is this good or bad?) Extremist parties gain seats Minor parties can have disproportionate importance on coalition building Party list creation can be undemocratic

4. Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) MMP used in a few countries but is popular with reformers. The Ontario citizens’ assembly on electoral system reform chose a version of MMP though the change was defeated in the 2007 referendum. New Zealand voters chose this system to replace FPTP in referendums in 1992-93. Another referendum in 2011 confirmed MMP. How does it work Two systems, FPTP and List Proportional where the second is used to compensate for the disproportionate results of the first. Two votes: Electorate Vote: vote for the local electorate Member of Parliament as in FPTP. The electorate vote decides who will be the local member. Party Vote: vote for the party you most want in the legislature. The party votes decide each party's share of all the seats in Parliament and seats from the list compensate for the disproportionality of FPTP 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

MMP strengths and weaknesses Proportionality with list seats Local representation in constituency seats Ability to split party and local representative vote Better representation of minority interests (in party lists) Weaknesses Complexity in the calculation of the outcome though this is not a concern of voters Many of the same disadvantages of SMP since it is still being used Two kinds of members, list and constituency MPs Party list creation can be undemocratic

What should electoral systems do? Provide representation: geography, ideology, political party, social divisions (language, religion etc.) Make elections accessible and meaningful: encourage meaningful and high participation Provide incentives for conciliation: encourage or allow parties to seek the middle ground and broaden its appeal Facilitate stable and efficient government: realizing legislative agendas and election promises Hold the governments and representatives accountable: being able to defeat a government or representative Encourage political parties: especially those that bridge social divisions Promote legislative opposition and oversight From: Electoral System Design: The New International IDEA Handbook

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association 11 Electoral System Reform Compulsory Voting How it generally works: Citizens must register as voters and present themselves at polling stations on election day or face a fine (one does not have to vote;; can spoil the ballot or mark “none of the above”) Enforcement: Varies considerably from country to country, for a number of reasons Examples of countries with compulsory voting laws: Australia, Belgium, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Brazil 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association 12 Electoral System Reform Online Voting As Internet use has become more commonplace, some have asked whether Canadians should be able to vote online  Argument for: Reflects an intent to expand the accessibility of elections, and, in turn, increase voter turnout  Argument against: Online voting may not be reliable and secure Used in some Canadian municipalities (Markham and Peterborough, Ont.; Halifax, Truro, and Cape Breton, N.S.), and international jurisdictions (Estonia, several cantons in Switzerland) 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association DISCUSSION Break out to Discussion tables Appoint a note taker and spokesperson Discuss each question among your group Reach consensus if possible Report back Allow: Discussion 10 minutes Report back 2 minutes Please hand your notes to the facilitator 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association QUESTION #1 Do you have a preferred electoral system? What specific features are important to you in an electoral system? for example: local representation, proportionality, simplicity, legitimacy etc.)? 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association QUESTION #2 Why do you think many Canadians choose not to engage in the democratic process? How would you encourage participation? 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association QUESTIONS for Robert MacDermid? 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association CONTACT For more information on alternate electoral systems: Library of Parliament |www.lop.parl.gc.ca/Content/ LOP/ResearchPublications/2016-06-e.html?cat=government Email | info@hklbliberal.ca Facebook | /HKLBFLA Twitter | @HKLB_LPC Website | http://hklb.liberal.ca/ 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association WRAP UP Please complete the Feedback form and leave it with the Facilitator. Don’t forget to pick up a Contact card on the way out. Thanks for coming! 2016-11-27 Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Federal Liberal Association