Getting Prepared: Policy Implications for Transportation Planning Alan Clark MPO Director Houston-Galveston Area Council

Climate Change Trends and Transportation Impacts Relative sea level rise Facility inundation, reduced bridge clearance Storm activity Service disruption, including loss of electric power Storm surge Destruction of structures, pavements and base material Precipitation and runoff Increased flooding, base and foundation failure Temperature increase Increased maintenance, early materials failure

Map of Study Area

Highways in Study Area

Freight Handling Ports

Freight Handling Ports

Combined Shipping from Louisiana

National Network – Class 1 Railroads

Relative Elevation

Highway at Risk – Sea Level 2 ft

Highway at Risk – Sea Level 4 ft

Hurricane Katrina Damage U.S Highway 90

Hurricane Katrina Damage U.S Highway 90

Highways at Risk from Storm Surge – 18ft

Rail Lines at Risk – 18 and 23ft

Port Facilities at Risk – 2 and 4ft

Port Facilities at Risk – 18 and 23ft

A2 Emission Scenerios

How to Integrate Climate Change and Transportation Planning Understanding our Vulnerabilities Operational Approaches Need for system flexibility – planning for “wild cards” Emergency management philosophy Linking predictive tools to traveler information “Design Standards” approach Combining Climate Change with Growth and Development Scenarios Can assess likelihood of what if scenarios Can monitor change and refine scenarios

Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning Dealing with uncertainty Point estimates versus ranges Scenario planning versus “static” forecasts Near term (50 yrs) versus long term (100 yrs) Average rates of change versus the historical record

Transportation Planning and Increasing Climate Change Impacts

Degree of Risk

A Risk Assessment Approach to Transportation Decisions Adaptation Response Exposure Vulnerability Resilience Protect Accommodate Retreat

Moving Toward Risk Management Essential Equation: Risk = Probability x Consequence

Questions We Have Can we determine probabilities? What are the units of analysis? Replacement cost? Loss of Performance? Project level? Network level? Paradigm (conceptual approach) vs. Algorithm (calculable method)?

How It Might Work (Federal Process) Add in ‘long term’ analysis to existing 20-year process Conduct system level assessment with the Long Range Plan Assess “major” facilities in the project development process

Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning Defining climate change in transportation metrics What kind How much How often Where When

Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning Incremental vs. non-incremental change Incremental change suggests past experience is still a useful guide for current decisions Incremental change permits greater time for adaptation Incremental change requires less reinvention of existing processes

Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning Rapid change in Climate Need for system flexibility – planning for “wild cards” Adaptation versus replacement

How to Integrate Climate Change and Transportation Planning Need for redundant systems and alternative travel modes Understanding system flexibility Understanding traveler response and flexibility Need for reliable system information Need for system choices

Getting Prepared: Policy Implications for Transportation Planning Alan Clark MPO Director Houston-Galveston Area Council