Denominational and social class differences in infant and child mortality and vulnerability to economic stress in Western Hungary, 1830-1939 Levente Pakot Hungarian Demographic Research Institute Economics and Institutions in History. Workshop in economic history and development. Faculty of Economics, University of Economics, Prague, 1-2 July 2016.

Objective of the paper To study mortality at young ages as a valuable indicator of living standards 1) the development of mortality differentials across denominatinal and socioeconomic groups 2) to estimate responses to short-term variation in food prices One indicator of living standards is the ability of individuals, households, and communities to overcome short-term economic stress, especially changes in the price of food (Bengtsson 2004) Demographic responses, including increased mortality and decreased or delayed fertility, are another possible outcome of short-term stress, and have been the focus of a wave of comparative research on standards of living in the past (Bengtsson, Campbell, & Lee, 2004;Tsuya, Feng, Alter, & Lee, 2010, Lundh & Kurosu 2014). We extend this research by examining demographic responses to short-term stress in a setting with a diverse rural economy, the Western Transdanubia (Hungary), in the 19th century.

Outline 1. Introduction 2. The area under study 3. Data and methods 4. Descriptive statistics 5. Multivariate analysis 6. Conclusion

Map of the area under study

Communities Bük Szakony Three villages that united in 1902 Heterogeneous in terms of religion (Roman Catholics and Lutherans) Separate elementary schools maintained by the Lutheran and R. Catholic Ch. up until the end of WWII. Modernization of the agriculture in the second half of the 19th c. (1865 railway, 1867-69 sugar factory) Population increase due to immigration Process of social differentiation and growing social inequalities End of WWI. (1917-burning of the s.f.) the plant breeder part of the factory functioning until 1930 Two villages that united in 1922 Heterogenious in terms of religion (Roman Catholics and Lutherans) Homogenous in terms of social structure: the dominant role of smallholders (farmers), before 1848 serfs (copyholders) The dominant role of agriculture Population stagnation Religious differencies in population composition: declining number of the Lutherans over time

Population size and distribution by denomination in Bük and Szakony 1836–1941

Communities: social structure Breadwinners by broad occupational groups Breadwinners in agriculture Source: Censuses

Data Family reconstitution database Record linkage of baptism, marriage and death records from Lutheran, Calvinist and Roman Catholic parish registers (1800-1895) and civil registers (1895-1980) Individual records of census 1850 and 1857 (Bük) Individual records of the electoral registers (1861-1949) SES reconstructed from occupational informations of parish and electoral registers and censuses HISCO coding scheme =>HISCLASS scheme

Food prices Source: Szőnyi 1935. Time series of log rye prices in the marketplace of Budapest (metric centered/pengő) Deviations from the trend in rye prices, 1820–1934 Source: Szőnyi 1935.

Methods Descriptive statistics Infant and child mortality rates, by SES and denominatinal groups Event History Analysis (Piecewise Constant Exponential) models separately for infant and child mortality focusing on the period between 1830–1939 Denominational group and social class differences Control variables: sex of the child, observed birth order of the child, twin birth, period. Event History Analysis (Piecewise Constant Exponential) models for short-term econimic stress and infant and child mortality focusing on the period between 1830–1914

Infant and child mortality rates in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939 Infant mortality Child mortality

Infant and child mortality rates by denominational group in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939. Infant mortality Child mortality

Infant and child mortality rates by social class in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939 Infant mortality Child mortality

Hazard ratios (HR) of infant and child mortality, Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939.   Infant mortality Child mortality HR p value Denominational group Lutheran (ref) Jewish 0,75 0.433 1,31 0,602 Roman Catholic 0,95 0.341 1,13 0,108 Socioeconomic class Middle class Skilled 0,87 0,227 1,60 0,015 Farmer 1,06 0,557 1,55 0,016 Unskilled worker 1,07 0,507 1,72 0,003 Missing 1,02 0,951 2,83 0,001 Deaths 2115 906 Individuals 12307 10436 Time at risk (person-day) 3878364 14016713 Log-likelihood -9927,4 -3369,8

Mortality response to short-term deviations in rye prices in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1914. Effects of the 10% change in rye price.   Infant mortality Child mortality Current rye price 1,09 1,22*** Deaths 1756 831 Individuals 10073 8511 Time at risk (person-day) 3158025 11119097 Log-likelihood -8220,3 -3018,3

Conclusion Preliminatory and exploratory analysis Emerging social class differentials around the end of the 19th century No sign of denominational differences Infant mortality shows no sensitivity to short term variations of food prices Child mortality in contrast remained sensitive to price fluctuations. Current rye prices were positively and significantly associated with mortality. Problems: Potential sources of selection biases Higher social classes are underrepresented in the sample Need to deepen the analysis: More refined statistical models (including other family level control variables, like mother’s age, place of birth etc.) More work on occupational categories, to include information on land-onwership