Next Generation Wind and Solar Power From cost to value Mexico City, 23 May 2017 Simon Mueller, Head System Integration of Renewables Unit

Significant cost reductions Energy prices for selected technologies, 2008-2015 PV and wind costs have fallen dramatically in recent years Causes: sustained technological progresses, expansion into newer markets with better resource, better financing conditions… Impact of VRE deployment magnified by energy efficiency Less energy demand  effective speed of VRE deployment is higher

Onshore wind: increased resource base and growing capacity factors Capacity factor, wind resource and swept area, USA Modern wind turbine technology in the United States has supported deployment in lower-resource areas and increased capacity factors. Source: Wiser and Bolinger, 2016

Where do we stand & where are we heading? DENMARK IRELAND PV share GERMANY 2015 UK BELGIUM SPAIN Wind share MOROCCO 2015 ITALY SWEDEN AUSTRALIA MEXICO Additional PV CHILE share 2021 USA CHINA SOUTH AFRICA Additional THAILAND wind share INDONESIA 2021 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Experience in a number of countries available how to integrate significant shares of VRE According to latest available forecasts in 2021: VRE is forecasted to exceed 20 % of annual generation in at least 6 countries Double-digit shares becoming new normal for many power systems Source: Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report, 2016

Recent RE integration milestones Scotland, 14 August 2016 : Daily wind power production exceeded demand Denmark, 2 September 2015: The Western Danish power system runs without centralised power generation for the first time Germany, 8 May 2016: Wind and solar PV cover the equivalent of 75% of power demand Significance of events: Denmark: Large generators are often seen as must-run to ensure system stability. Danish grid operator Energinet.dk demonstrated that this is not the case – important evidence for any system operator. Spain: Operating wind plants below maximum feasible output in order to ramp up when needed is a crucial step for VRE taking over responsibility to balance supply and demand in real time. PT: Demonstration that 100% RE with high shares of wind generation are feasible, if sufficient flexible RE are available. Germany: Germany is approaching the point where wind and solar power could in theory cover all of power demand during low load and high VRE conditions. For commercial reasons conventional plants remain operational also during these periods. Scotland: Demonstrates that days with wind covering most of demand are occuring in a growing number of regions Portugal, 7-11 May 2016: Renewable energy (including hydro) covers the equivalent of 100% of power demand for 107 consecutive hours Spain, 28 February 2016: For the first time, wind power provides upward balancing reserves

… but also challenges + o - Wind penetration and curtailment in selected countries, 2012-2015 Grids + o Generation - Operation Curtailment levels are a good indicator for successful VRE integration – growing curtailment signals shortfalls in power system flexibility

Electricity prices in North-East US (PJM), 1 Jan 2014, 17h05 The problem with LCOE Levelised cost most common way to benchmark generation technologies Pro: simple, straightforward Con: assumes that electricity from all sources has the same value for the power system Electricity prices in North-East US (PJM), 1 Jan 2014, 17h05 LCOE metric is not sufficient, because value of electricity can differ strongly depending on time and location. Image source: http://avalonenergy.us/blog

High value electricity Factoring in value Less useful: Lower value More useful: Higher value The value of electricity for the power system depends on where, when and how it is generated. Low value electricity High value electricity When When electricity is abundant When electricity is most needed Where Far away from demand Close to demand How No additional system services Provides additional services for system

The solution: system value System value (SV) considers the overall benefit arising from the addition of a power plant to the power system LCOE Investment costs Operation and maintenance costs (fuel, emissions) Financing cost … SV Reduced fuel and emission costs Reduced costs/ need for other generation capacity Possibly reduced grid costs and losses Increased operating costs for other power plants Additional grid infrastructure costs Curtailment + - LCOE and SV are complementary: LCOE focuses on the level of the individual power plant, while SV captures system-level effects

New priorities for deployment of wind and solar power Traditional approach Next generation approach When is electricity produced? Not considered Optimised: best mix of wind and solar; advanced power plant design; strategic choice of location Where is electricity produced? Best resources, no matter where Optimised: trade-off between cost of grid expansion and use of best resources How is electricity produced? Do not provide system services Optimised: better market rules and advanced technology allow wind and solar power to contribute to system services Next-generation wind and solar power require next generation polices.

System transformation Policy and market framework Level of VRE penetration System-friendly VRE deployment Flexible resources planning & investments Grids Generation Demand shaping Storage System and market operation Actions targeting VRE Actions targeting overall system

Key action areas and policy examples Integrated planning: wind and solar embedded in energy strategy Denmark: integrated energy strategy Location: siting VRE closer to existing network capacity and/or load centers Location: new auction design for wind and PV Technology mix: balanced mix of VRE resources can foster lasting synergies Technology mix: Integrated Resource Plan Optimising generation time profile: design of wind and solar PV plants California: incentive to produce at peak times System services: wind and sun contribute to balance system System services: wind active on balancing market 24/7 Local integration with other resources such as demand-side response, storage Australia: incentives for self-consumption

Next generation policies Policy and market frameworks must seek to maximise the net benefit of wind and solar power to the overall power system. A more expensive project may be preferable if it provides a higher value to the system. Despite its lower cost, technology B will deliver lesser benefits than technology A Value technology A Value technology B System benefits Cost of technology A System benefits Cost of technology B Next generation wind and solar power calls for next generation policies. These must focus on maximising value in addition to reducing cost.

5 main recommendations Next generation wind and solar power calls for next generation policies. These focus on maximising value while reducing cost. Time-based pricing is key. Power system transformation: integrate high shares of VRE cost effectively by adopting a whole energy systems’ approach. Advanced VRE technology: ensure power plants can provide system services by adopting forward-looking technical standards. Distributed resources: reform the institutional and regulatory structure of low- and medium-voltage grids, reflecting their new role in a smarter, more decentralised electricity system. Strategic planning: develop or update long-term energy strategies to reflect potential of next-generation wind and solar.

Mexico Good wind and solar resources, in particular near the coastline Dynamic power market with strong need for investment in power generation and transmission expansion VRE a key building block of future power supply expansion plans Average wind speed

Mexico Drivers Challenges A major energy reform launched in 2013 split the vertically-integrated utility, and further opened up the market to new investment from private parties (IPPs) Long-term auctions for procuring VRE capacity recognize the spatial and temporal value of electricity production, while providing investment certainty. This is a major innovation for VRE procurement globally. Drivers Strong demand growth Reform opens up market further for private investment Long-term capacity expansion plans plan good prospects for VRE Challenges Maintain momentum for reform towards full implementation in 2018 Aligning transmission build-out with awarded generation capacity

Price adders evolution Example of price adders for VRE: area of Laguna, 2020 Prices adders are updated for each auction to account for the evolution of local supply and demand considering the (future) commissioning of previously awarded projects.

Discussion questions Does the current auction design deliver on system friendly deployment? Is the long-term evolution of the grid accurately reflected? Is price-based location control an effective steering mechanism or could development zones be a better option? Are future flexibility options sufficiently considered in the price adders? What other aspects of the reform need to be prioritized to achieve wind and solar integration?