Natural Disaster Impact Assessment: Using OTM for Labor Market Analysis March 19, 2009 3:00 pm (eastern)

Presenters Presenters: George Putnam Allan Ross Moderator: Anthony Dais, Employment and Training Administration

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Presenters Presenters: George Putnam Allan Ross Moderator: Tony Dias

Presenter Introduction George Putnam, Asst. Manager Illinois Department of Employment Security

Overview of Presentation Does a role exist for labor market information in disaster assessment? What is the information yield from OTM for disaster assessment? What are the key steps to using OTM for disaster assessment? Gather Information Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster Specify Study Criteria Using OTM Reports What is the information yield from OTM for estimation of disaster-related initial claims and service delivery?

Does a role exist for labor market information in disaster assessment? Conventional response- no Prescribed geographic definitions Confidentiality (state and federal mandates) OTM response- LMI is relevant and critical Enhance geocoding of core LMI data Implement statistically rigorous disclosure proofing techniques the limitations of traditional LMI severely constrain its utility for disaster assessment in the past, labor market information has been mostly available for larger geographic configurations: state, metropolitan areas or, in some limited cases, counties; disaster assessment often does not fit well with this configurations because, not surprisingly, the impact of natural disasters is not often circumscribed by the boundaries of the aforementioned geographies; indeed our example today includes multiple states and subsections of multiple counties moreover, labor market information is produced in accordance with state and federal mandates on confidentiality; we relay on employer participation in our (State Workforce Agency) collection of LMI primary micro data and pledge confidentiality to ensure that information on a particular establishment is not released to the public; the most common form of protecting confidentiality of lmi has been “primary-secondary” disclosure OTM was designed from the beginning as a statistical program to address both of these concerns first, the unit of geography is not the state, metropolitan area or county but the census block (a constituent component of a census tract); users can literally re-create the boundaries of the natural disaster with the OTM software that taps into a rich database of lmi for only the configuration of the natural disaster second, the OTM initiative implements an innovative approach to disclosure proofing, using statistical imputation, that permits release of unprecedented detail on worker and industries while maintaining confidentiality

What is the information yield from OTM for disaster assessment? Labor market characteristics of those impacted by a natural disaster What is the age of workers in the area? What is the earnings of workers in the area? What industries are located in the area? How many jobs does each industry provide? What is the commutation pattern of workers in the area?

What is the information yield from OTM for disaster assessment? OTM information layers that enhance the labor market information yield Groupings of workers by ownership Private- and public-sector workers; private-sector workers Groupings of workers by age range Age 30 or younger; age 31 to 54; age 55 or older Groupings of workers by earnings range $1,200 or less; $1,201 to $3,400; more than $3,400 (per month) Groupings of workers by industry sector Goods producing; trade/transportation/utilities; all other services

Presenter’s Picture here if available Allan Ross, Manager, Local Employment Dynamics Illinois Department of Employment Security

Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster. Specify Study Criteria. Key Steps Gather Information. Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster. Specify Study Criteria. Using OTM Reports and Maps.

Gather Information Type of disaster Date, time, and duration Physical location Extent of the destruction Estimated duration of disruption caused by the event

Gather Information Useful Web Pages Useful Web pages for gathering background information about disasters: National Weather Service http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/ Disaster News Network http://www.disasternews.net/ Media Web Pages Private Industrial Web Pages Federal Emergency Management Agency http://www.fema.gov/hazard/index.shtm State Emergency Management Agencies

Gather Information: Type of disaster; date/time/ duration; location; extent of destruction A National Weather Service bulletin dated 02/06/2008 contained reports on a series of tornados that occurred on 02/05/2008. Following is part of one of the reports: ...THIS TORNADO CONTINUED FROM SOUTHAVEN MISSISSIPPI AND PROCEEDED NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE TORNADO STRUCK THE DSC WAREHOUSE CAUSING THE 3 FATALITIES...THEN CONTINUED NORTHEAST CAUSING DAMAGE AT THE HICKORY RIDGE MALL AND 6 ADDITIONAL INJURIES BEFORE LIFTING AT 545 PM CST. THE TOTAL TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS 11 MILES AND WIDTH WAS ONE QUARTER MILE. Other Web sources pinpointed the starting location as Southaven High School, and located the DSC Warehouse as just southwest of the mall.

Gather Information Extent of destruction; duration of disruption Google provided a link to the Hickory Ridge Mall Web site. This is an excerpt: Hickory Ridge Mall Closed Due to Tornado Damage Hickory Ridge Mall is closed due to damages sustained by the February 5, 2008 tornado. We are eager to reopen our doors soon to serve our community. We will continue to update this site on the status of the mall with information as it becomes available.

Key Steps Gather Information. Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster. Specify Study Criteria. Using OTM Reports and Maps.

Define Location Mapping the Southaven High School area

Define Location Mapping the Hickory Ridge Mall area

Define Location Tornado path drawn over aerial view

Define Location OTM Study Area Selection Tornado lifted here Line drawn to connect the two end points ¼ mile radius around the selection line Tennessee–Mississippi state line Tornado struck ground here

Key Steps Gather Information. Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster. Specify Study Criteria. Using OTM Reports and Maps.

Specify Study Criteria OTM analysis parameters Live or work Year(s) Job type Study area selection Type of analysis (profile or shed) Labor market segments (age, earnings, industry class, or all) Selection tools (layer, point, line, freehand, ring/buffer, donut, plume) Profile or shed analysis Map precision

Specify Study Criteria Job Types: All Sectors All Jobs. Public and private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted. Primary Jobs. Public and private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers. All Private Jobs. Private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted. Primary Private Jobs. Private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers.

Specify Study Criteria Job Types: Private Sector All Jobs. Public and private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted. Primary Jobs. Public and private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers. All Private Jobs. Private sector jobs. If a worker has multiple jobs, each is counted. Primary Private Jobs. Private sector workers’ highest paying jobs. A worker can only have one highest-paying job, so this reports all workers.

Key Steps Gather Information. Define Physical Location(s) of the Disaster. Specify Study Criteria. Using OTM Reports and Maps.

WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA Reports TYPE OF ANALYSIS WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis) Age ranges Earnings per month Industry sectors Locations (Shed Analysis) Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis) Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis)

Intro to Area Profile Reports TYPE OF ANALYSIS WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis) Age ranges Earnings per month Industry sectors Locations (Shed Analysis) Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis) Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis)

Area Profile: Total Jobs

Area Profile: Age Ranges

Area Profile: Earnings Ranges

Area Profile: Industries

Area Profile: Workers & Residents TYPE OF ANALYSIS WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis) Age ranges Earnings per month Industry sectors Locations (Shed Analysis) Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis) Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis)

Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Total Jobs

Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Workers’ Age Ranges

Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Workers’ Earnings

Area Profiles, Tornado Area Segments: Industries …the dominant industries located in the two areas. 80% percent of the mall workers are employed in just two industries, Retail Trade and Accommodation/Food Services; only 10% of the workers in the outlying area of the tornado path work in those industries. Businesses in these two industries tend to employ younger employees and offer lower pay. Outside the mall, nearly 80% of the workers are employed in Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, Transportation/Warehousing, and Real Estate--industries typically paying higher compensation. In contrast, less than 6% of the mall workers are employed in those industries.

Labor & Commute Shed Reports TYPE OF ANALYSIS WORKERS EMPLOYED IN STUDY AREA EMPLOYED RESIDENTS OF STUDY AREA Labor Market Characteristics (Area Profile Analysis) Age ranges Earnings per month Industry sectors Locations (Shed Analysis) Home/residential locations (Labor Shed analysis) Workplace locations (Commute Shed analysis) Now we’ll consider OnTheMap’s other type of analytic report, the shed report. We will view, side by side, the tornado area’s Labor and Commute Sheds. The Labor Shed is the cities/towns, counties, and states where area workers live. The Commute Shed is the cities/towns, counties, and states where area employed residents work. OnTheMap supports several types of rollups. For this study we accepted the default rollups of Cities &Towns, Counties, and States. But when entering selection criteria for shed reports, you can override the defaults and choose alternates, including congressional districts, Workforce Investment Areas, and Zip Codes. George will use one of these alternate rollups in his presentation on the use of OnTheMap and Disaster Related Claims.

Labor & Commute Shed Reports: Cities Most of the area’s workers (59.8%) live in Memphis, Tennessee, and most of the area’s resident workers (52.0%) are employed in this city. However the area’s workers are more dispersed across other cities and towns, whereas 15.0% of the area’s resident workers are in a single town, Southaven, MS.

Tornado area labor shed

Tornado area commute shed

Presenter Introduction George Putnam, Asst. Manager Illinois Department of Employment Security

One-Stop Centers as a primary State actor Does a role exist for labor market information in a State’s response to disaster assessment? One-Stop Centers as a primary State actor Focus on real-time needs of worker subpopulations (workload) Service delivery by defined geographies Disaster-related initial claims Regular UI benefits Disaster unemployment assistance (DUA)

Can OTM facilitate the estimation of workload for disaster-related claims? Current methodology for workload estimation Potential workload = (projected severity of disaster * labor force in impacted area) Projected severity based on historical experience and analytic judgment Labor force equates impacted population with employed and unemployed residents

OTM-based methodology for workload estimation Can OTM facilitate the estimation of workload for disaster-related claims? OTM-based methodology for workload estimation Potential workload = (projected severity of disaster * workers employed in impacted area) Projected severity based on historical experience and analytic judgment “Workers employed” concept closely aligns with definitional requirements of disaster- related initial claims

Can OTM facilitate the estimation of workload for disaster-related claims? Workload estimation- tornado area Current methodology Employed residents- 1,511 persons Unemployed residents- unknown (tornado area doesn’t coincide with standard labor force area) OTM methodology Workers employed- 7,137 persons

Can OTM facilitate service delivery for disaster-related claims? Geographic definition of service delivery Current methodology Tornado area doesn’t coincide with standard labor force area Assumes client concentration within impacted area OTM workload methodology Workers employed in tornado path 7,137 persons Who reside within tornado path 48 persons Who reside outside of tornado path 7,089 persons Who reside within Tennessee 6,020 persons Who reside in other states 1,117 persons

Can OTM facilitate service delivery by Workforce Boards?

Can OTM facilitate service delivery by Workforce Boards?

Can OTM facilitate service delivery by One-Stop Centers?

Can OTM facilitate service delivery by One-Stop Centers?

What is the information yield for service delivery of disaster claims? OTM information layers that enhance the labor market information yield Groupings of workers by ownership Private- and public-sector workers; private-sector workers Groupings of workers by age range Age 30 or younger; age 31 to 54; age 55 or older Groupings of workers by earnings range $1,200 or less; $1,201 to $3,400; more than $3,400 (per month) Groupings of workers by industry sector Goods producing; trade/transportation/utilities; all other services

George Putnam Allan Ross George.Putnam@illinois.gov Contact Information George Putnam George.Putnam@illinois.gov Allan Ross Allan.Ross@illinois.gov

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Employment and Training Administration Contact Information Anthony Dais U S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration Dais.anthony@dol.gov Workforce Information and Economic Analysis Super Category on Workforce3One http://www.workforce3one.org/page/wiea

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