The Palestinian-Israeli Pulse: A Joint Poll December 2016 Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin, with Tami Steinmetz Center Dr. Khalil Shikaki (PSR)

Methodology Palestinian sample: N= 1,270 adults Face-to-face interviews West Bank, East Jerusalem (830) and Gaza Strip (440) in 127 randomly selected locations Dates of interviews: December 8- 10, 2016. The margin of error: 3%. N=1,207 adult Israelis interviewed by phone Israeli sample: Languages of interviews: Hebrew, Arabic or Russian Dates of interviews: December 19 -30, 2016. Jews inside Israel (727), West Bank settlers (300), Israeli Arabs (180). (Israeli data file weighted to reflect actual proportions in society.) margin of error: 3% The analysis has been drafted by Dr. Khalil Shikaki, director of PSR, and Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin together with the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and its director, Dr. Ephraim Lavie.

General environment and values

Life conditions – by region “How are conditions in general in Israel/Palestine these days?” (%, by sector and region)

Values: Jews - growing concern for democracy “Some of these values clash – which is most important to you? (%, Jews only, time series)

Settlers: rising support for Greater Israel, falling priority of Jewish majority “Some of these values clash – which is most important to you? (%, West Bank settlers only, time series) All Jews: rising priority of democracy: +7 (20% - 27%, June to December), lower priority of peace: -9 (32% - 23%, June to December)

Palestinian – National goals “Which is the most important vital national goal?” (%, Palestinians)

Attitudes towards two-state solution

Recent moderate decline in support for two-state concept “Do you support/oppose solution based on establishment of Palestinian state, the two-state solution?” (%, time series) -5 -3 -7 -7

Changing support for two-states: all Israelis & Palestinians “Do you support or oppose a solution based on establ. of Palestinian state, two-state solution?” (%, time series)

Israelis: Slight decline in perception of Israeli support for two-states “Do you think most Israelis support this solution?” (% “most Israelis support”, among Israeli respondents)

Palestinians: slight decline in perceptions of Palestinian support for two-states “Do you think most Palestinians support this solution? (% “most Pals support”, among Palestinian respondents)

Alternatives: Attitudes towards one-state, confederation “Do you support one equal, democratic state for Isrls/Pals? Do you support an Isrl-Pal confederation?” (% “support”)

Preferences for negotiation models “Which do you think is the better model for negotiations?”(%)

Negotiation format

Preferred multi-lateral forums/mediators “Which multi-lateral approach for reviving negotiations is most helpful/least harmful?”(%)

Consensus: US President Trump pro-Israel “From what you have heard, do you think Trump will be more pro-Israel or more pro-Palestinian?”(%)

Explaining decline in support: Low trust, low viability, contextual developments

Does the other side want peace? “Most Palestinians/Israelis want peace – agree or disagree? (%, by nationality – each group asked about other)

Low confidence that other side seeks peace “Most Palestinians OR Israelis want peace – agree or disagree? (%, by sector) *Re: Palestinians

Low expectations of implementation “What are the chances that a Palestinian state will be established in the next 5 years? (% “low+very low”, time series)

Israeli perceptions of Palestinian support for two-states – low among Jews “Do you think most Palestinians support this solution? (%, among Israeli respondents – no change from June)

Slight decline in Palestinian perceptions of Israeli support for two-states “Do you think most Israelis support this solution? (% “most Israelis support”, among Palestinian respondents)

Zero –sum thinking: majorities on both sides “In Isrl/Pal, nothing can be good for both sides - what’s good for one side is bad for the other side?” (%, by sector)

Policy implications Overall situation tolerable for Israeli Jews/not for Isrli Arabs & Palestinian Loss of viability contributes to falling support for two state solution But alternatives supported by smaller minorities Combination of deteriorating life conditions & low political expectations = despair (could improvement on either front mitigate despair?) Contextual political changes generate shifts in public opinion: Intensified debate over annexation – rise in priority of “Greater Israel” (settlers) Intensified fears re: annexation and loss of Jewish majority – rise in priority of democracy over peace (other Israeli Jews) Rising openness re: connections with Middle East/Arab world (preference for Arab-led negotiations; API incentives

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