Improved fauna habitat quality assessment for decision making in the Pilbara Bioregion Amy Whitehead amy.whitehead@unimelb.edu.au NERP Environmental Decisions Hub University of Melbourne

Northern quoll, Pilbara olive python, Pilbara leaf-nosed bat Objectives Provide improved knowledge on habitat requirements for EPBC listed fauna to ensure persistence in Pilbara bioregion To support project assessments under Parts 7-9 of the EPBC Act To support strategic assessments under Part 10 og the EPBC Act Northern quoll, Pilbara olive python, Pilbara leaf-nosed bat

Approach Species distribution modeling Population viability analysis Where is the species likely to occur and what are the important habitats? Population viability analysis What is the probability of population persistence? Metapopulation viability analysis What is the probability of population persistence given the suitability of available habitat? Assessment of impacts What is the probability of population persistence given changes to the suitability of available habitat?

Species distribution modelling Where could species occur? Data requirements Occurrence data Ecologically relevant environmental data Output Map of habitat suitability Spotted tailed quoll Wintle et al (2005) Austral Ecology

Population Viability Analysis Estimates probability of persistence using data on vital rates Assess deterministic & stochastic influences on population persistence Tool for synthesising information, ranking management scenarios, identifying & ranking threatened species

Population model EGGS/tadpoles 1 year olds Adults 2 year olds subadults 3 year olds

Population Viability Analysis 1 year olds Adults Eggs tadpoles 2 year subadults 3 year Data requirements Survival Fecundity Age at maturity Maximum age Density-dependence …. Outputs Probability of persistence Minimum expected abundance Sensitivity analysis Highlight data gaps

Model integration: SDMs and PVA

Metapopulation Model Linking species distribution & population viability models Habitat suitability Metapopulation

Metapopulation Model Data requirements Map of habitat suitability Minimum habitat suitability for reproduction and survival Patchiness of suitable habitat Dispersal ability Relationship between habitat suitability and carrying capacity

Spatially-explicit outputs 2000 Spatially-explicit outputs Probability of persistence Minimum expected abundance Sensitivity analysis

Impact Assessment Data requirements Spatially-explicit impact data Spatially-explicit mitigation data

Summary Biodiversity in the planning early = better biodiversity outcomes Data, data, data…. poo in = poo out Existing tools handle biodiversity, social and economic data not without technical challenges! Can and should be done at fine scale Credibility of SA and RSPs: best available methods

Questions amy.whitehead@unimelb.edu.au