Climate neutrality and forests Dr. Sampo Soimakallio, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) Forest and Climate integrity in the EU's LULUCF regulation European Parliament, 8 March 2017

Atmospheric CO2 concentration increases because emissions exceed sinks Mitigation of climate change requires reduction in fossil fuel and land-based emissions and increase in carbon sinks

Managed forestry system is typically carbon negative (sink) CO2 > CO2 + CO2 forest C harvested wood products C Matthews et al. 2014 Matthews et al. 2014

Managed forestry system with increased wood utilization is less carbon negative (sink is reduced) CO2 > CO2 + CO2 forest C harvested wood products C Matthews et al. 2014 Matthews et al. 2014

Energy and climate strategy 2016 by the Finnish government Net emissions in Finland in 2014 and in 2030 with existing (WEM) and additional measures (WAM) (source: Koljonen, Soimakallio et al. 2017, http://tietokayttoon.fi/julkaisu?pubid=16902 ) GHG emissions reduced, net emissions not reduced by 2030 due to forest C sink reduction

Most of the carbon harvested from forests is released into the atmosphere within a few years Bellassen, V. & Luyssaert, S., Comment: Carbon sequestration: Managing forests in uncertain times. Nature, 2014. 506, 153–155.

On the Carbon sink and stock, concepts often mixed Forest carbon (C) sink ≠ C sequestered during growth of trees Forest act as a carbon sink if forest carbon stock increases Carbon stock Forest C stock increases if C sequestration of trees > C release from wood harvested and decay in forest Wood harvesting reduces forest C stock  thus, also (net) C sink C stock is the highest in old-growth forest  thus, C sink over a long time period is also the highest Maintaining carbon sinks and stocks Annual forest C sink will be reduced sooner or later, but it has specific relevance within the near-coming decades It is possible to maintain different C stock levels in the long run

Land management trade‐off: maximizing productivity vs. carbon stocks Schultze et al. 2012, GCB Bioenergy 4(6), 611–616 DOI: 10.1111/j.1757-1707.2012.01169.x In the long run, what is the aim of forestry and what would it mean in terms of carbon stocks, and are we now heading for the goal?

Conclusions Forest carbon does not offset fossil carbon Stabilizing below 2 C will require both deep cuts in GHG emissions and reinforcing carbon sinks Substitution of fossil fuels by forest biomass inevitably reduces forest C sink Increased wood harvesting reduces forest carbon sink which adds CO2 to the atmosphere at least for decades If not accounted properly, there is a risk that fossil fuel emissions are reduced at the expense of forest C sink… …which would mean that the achievement of the Paris agreement target is at risk

Thank you for your attention! More information: sampo.soimakallio@ymparisto.fi Hildén, M., Soimakallio, S., Seppälä, J., Liski, J. Forest carbon sinks must be included in bioeconomy sustainability assessments. SYKE Policy Brief 18.7.2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10138/164797