Climate and Health in Relation to Global Change: Overview Joan L. Aron, Ph.D. Science Communication Studies IAI Training Institute on Climate and Health in the Americas University of the West Indies Kingston, Jamaica November 7, 2005 – November 18, 2005

Outline Global Change and Human Dimensions Adverse Health Effects of Climate Variability and Change Steps to Providing Better Tools & Approaches for Adaptation Strategies

Ecosystem Change and Public Health

Human Population Growth World population grew from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion in the twentieth century. 1 billion in 1804 2 billion in 1927 3 billion in 1960 4 billion in 1974 5 billion in 1987 6 billion in 1999

Urbanization 1950: 30% of population is urban 2007: Urban population will equal rural population. Mega-cities will be more numerous and larger. Most growth over the next 50 years will be in cities in poor countries.

Migration The end of the cold war has led to more population movements. The breakup of empires has created large, dislocated, insecure minorities. Media attention focuses on migration issues in Western nations. Most international refugee and migration flows occur among developing nations.

Uneven Population Growth In less-developed countries, populations are growing rapidly and becoming younger on average. In most industrialized countries, the trend is one of either slow or negative growth. The percentage of the population over 60 in wealthy countries will double from 16 percent in 1990 to 32 percent by 2030.

Uneven Economic Growth World real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 20 to 40 times over the 20th century. Yet about 1.2 billion live in absolute poverty. Afflictions of affluence are more common causes of death in more developed nations than in less developed nations.

Globalization The industrial revolution has spread from Europe to Asia, Africa and Latin America. Notion of humanity dominant over Nature. The growth of industrial economies fostered the emergence of large and polluted cities as the centers of industrial activity. This economic transition was facilitated by technologies based on fossil fuels.

Natural Resources and Environment Atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen since the industrial revolution. Annual global emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuel has quadrupled since 1950.

Frontier Forests Under Threat South America

Energy Resources Only a decade ago, China was a net exporter of oil. Now, it is the third-largest importer, behind only the United States and Japan. Goodman, Peter S. China’s Dark Days and Darker Nights: Industrial Growth Exceeds Supply of Electrical Power. Washington Post, January 5, 2004

Food and Water Resources A sufficient amount of food is now being produced to feed the world, but around 800 million are under-nourished due to poverty, political instability, economic inefficiency and social inequity. The quest for new sources of water, food and other resources is forcing migration into marginal and previously remote areas.

Selected Environmental Treaties Framework Convention on Climate Change Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants Convention to Combat Desertification Convention on Biological Diversity

Emerging Infectious Diseases Emerging infectious diseases are a major threat to human health and prosperity in all countries, rich and poor. Explanatory factors are issues of population, globalization and environment.

Climate Sensitive Health Effects Global Assessments Heat waves, cold waves Wind storms, floods Drought, food security and nutrition Food safety Air quality and disease; Aeroallergens Water and disease Occupational health Rodent- and vector-borne diseases Emerging infectious diseases

Climate Sensitive Health Effects Training Institute Foci Infectious Disease Mosquito-borne (malaria, dengue, different kinds of viral encephalitis) Algal blooms (oceans / estuaries) Water-borne (diarrheal) Wind Storms and Floods Drought, Food Security and Nutrition Air Quality and Disease Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, UV Exposure

Training Institute Pedagogical Approach Focus on providing science, applications, and project development for a few topics. Highlight people who work as a team (e.g., IAI CRN/CHIEX project). Take advantage of local setting (Kingston area) to provide context – field trips on dengue and natural hazards. Discuss how to apply concepts to other health issues and countries in the Americas.

Critical Thinking What does climate sensitive mean? How much does climate affect the disease? and on what time scale? How does climate interact with other factors?

Long Time Scales Pitfalls in Extrapolation Ecological responses to diurnal, seasonal, interannual or decadal climate variability may not always be indicative of responses to long-term climate change. Anthropogenic stresses on ecosystems are likely to change more significantly over the course of decades to centuries than over seasonal to interannual time scales.

How do we take steps to provide better tools and approaches for adaptation strategies?

Climate and Health Effects in the Caribbean (PAHO/WHO Workshop, Barbados, 2002): OBJECTIVES Generate awareness of the impact of climate variability and change on health. Understand how climate data are and could/should be used in health planning.

Climate and Health Effects in the Caribbean (PAHO/WHO Workshop, Barbados, 2002): OBJECTIVES Identify the elements of a framework for proactive health/climate actions to assess vulnerabilities and implement mitigation and adaptation strategies in relation to adverse health impacts of climate variability and change. Discuss and define the roles of health and climate professionals in the implementation of the framework for proactive health/climate actions.

Climate and Health Effects in the Caribbean (PAHO/WHO Workshop, Barbados, 2002): OBJECTIVES Identify key partners and assess institutional/ organizational arrangements that must be strengthened and what new entities must be put in place at the national and regional levels to assess vulnerabilities and implement mitigation and adaptation strategies in relation to adverse health impacts of climate variability and change. Identify follow-on capacity-building activities to address climate variability and change and health nationally and regionally.

Training Institute Target Audience What capacity are we building? knowledge-action system researchers policy-makers

Thank You!