Chinese Urbanism in Global Context PLAN A6526 Columbia University Prof. Weiping Wu Urbanization and Urban System

Urban growth patterns Correlation between urbanization and economic development (not causal) Under-urbanization (World Bank) Over-urbanization (Chen et al) Where is China? Agglomeration effects Why are big cities more efficient? Stages of urbanization

Development: Indicators Region GNI per capita US$ (2008) % < US$2/day (2005) % urbanized (2009) % Living in slums Africa 2,660 65 38 51 Asia 6,020 53 42 35 Europe 25,550 _ 71 <1 Northern America 45,890 79 South America 10,160 19 81 29

China’s urbanization levels

Stages of urbanization Early stages of economic development – rapid growth of urban share and centralization of population in urban cores Intermediate stage – slower urban share growth as rural population declines and spread of growth to intermediate sized cities and suburban hinterlands Mature economic development – slower growth of urban share and even loss of urban populations from some cities and from cores Post-industrial stages – more or less stable but high share of urban population with renewed growth in largest metropolitan cities and in selected cores but continued growth of many medium sized cities. Decline of older industrial cities and regions.

Growth patterns over time * What accounts for the divergent patterns in China over time?

Growth patterns over space * What accounts for the divergent patterns in China over space?

Cities and regions today

China’s urbanization at a glance ~1980 ~2010 % change Urbanization level (%) 19.4 51.0 162.9 Number of cities 193 657 240.4 Eastern region 69 344 398.6 Central region 84 218 159.5 Western region 40 95 137.5 Cities by population size Super large (> 2 million) - 42 Extra large (1-2 million) 13 82 530.8 Large (0.5 -1 million) 27 110 307.4 Small & medium (< 0.5 million) 153 423 176.5 Agriculture’s share in employment (%) 64 39 -39.1 Ratio of urban-rural per capita income 2.6 3.2 23.1

Challenges in China’s urbanization Inefficient capital use and local debts Incomplete migration Inefficient land use Territorial expansion of cities outpaces population growth – density dropped by 25% Land allocation biased towards industry – 25%, compared to Seoul (7%) and HK (5%) Overly strict FAR – too low; generally less than 3, compared to Manhattan (about 6.8)

Urban sprawl in Shanghai

Summing up Never developed a single “primate” city or urban region Urban primacy and why? Marked regional imbalances Why is there persistent disparity? Suburbanization and urban sprawl What are the driving forces of urbanization?