The Future? Global Trends 2035

1. Big Power Rivalry? New Cold War or…

South China Sea Timeline

China’s Nine-Dash Line

Competing Claims

Oil and Gas

Oil Trade

Natural Gas Trade

Spratly Islands Disputes

Mischief Reef Chinese “Naval Base”

Philippine Claim to the Second Thomas Shoal

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982 12 mile limit from a nation’s coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation 200 miles form a nation’s coast Exclusive economic rights for the nation Dispute resolution mechanism Direct talks between the parties. If they fail: submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea adjudication by the International Court of Justice submission to binding international arbitration procedures submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve binding third-party settlement Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.

Summer 2016: Philippines v. China in Court Ruling by Permanent Court of Arbitration Summary

2. Interdependence

US Trade Partners

China Trade Partners

3. Multipolarity US EU China India Japan Russia Brazil

4. US leadership? United Nations World Trade Organization IMF World Bank IAEA NATO APEC

5. Ideological Leadership Liberal Democracy vs. Theocracy Soft Authoritarianism

6. Domestic Problems James Moody and Peter Mucha. “Portrait of Political Party Polarization.” Network Science / Volume 1 / Issue 01 / April 2013, pp 119-121

Education Program for International Student Assessment rankings 2006 2009 Ranking: Reading 17th Math: 31st Science: 23rd

Deficit and Debt Federal Deficit (Historical Tables) (2017)

National Debt National Debt: the accumulated deficits, plus other incurred debt by the US National Debt Clock http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities Other Investors/Savings Bonds China Japan Pension Funds Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds State and Local Governments in US UK Banks Insurance Companies OPEC nations Brazil Caribbean nations Hong Kong Canada

US Defense Spending

Defense as % of Federal Budget

Defense Spending as a Percentage of GDP

7. Fundamental Changes? Transformation of the Nation-state System: Urbanization plus increased inequality People Power or State Failure? Disturbance Democracy Non-State Actors US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership Infectious Diseases Climate Change

A1. Urbanization plus increased inequality Caracas, Venezuela

Mumbai, India

Megacities Tokyo, Japan: 2016: 38,140,000 Delhi, India: 2016: 26,454,000 Shanghai, China: 2016: 24,484,000 Mumbai (Bombay), India: 2016: 21,357,000 São Paulo, Brazil: 2016: 21,297,000 Beijing, China: 2016: 21,240,000 Mexico City, Mexico: 2016: 21,157,000  Osaka, Japan: 2016: 20,337,000 Cairo, Egypt: 2016: 19,128,000 New York-Newark, USA: 2016: 18,604,000

A2. People Power or State Breakdown? Arab Uprising 2011

A3. Disturbance Democracy: 1999 Battle for Seattle

London 2011

Ukraine 2014

A4. Non-State Actors Mapping Militant Organizations (Reference) al-Shabab vs. Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia (and US) ISIL vs. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (and US) Boko Haram vs. Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Niger

ISIS’s Global Reach

Transnational Organized Crime: Mexico vs. Drug Cartels (2015 numbers)

B. US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership Public Opinion Runs Against Syrian Airstrikes, Pre Research Center for the People and the Press, SEPTEMBER 3, 2013 Widespread Middle East Fears that Syrian Violence Will Spread, Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, MAY 1, 2013

America First?

C. Infectious Disease

D. Climate Change (from NOAA)