Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place The First HMD Symposium Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place The First HMD Symposium. June 18-19, 2004. Rostock, Germany Estimates of Mortality and Population Changes over the Two World Wars for England and Wales Dmitri Jdanov1, Evgueni Andreev2, Domantas Jasilionis1, and Vladimir Shkolnikov1 1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany 2Centre of Demography and Human Ecology, Moscow, Russia

Official statistics: a divide between civilian and non-civilian population - Full continuous data series: population estimates, births, deaths and external migration - Data at the most detailed level available in the HMD Non-Civilian population - Only fragmentary demographic data are available - Two sources: incomplete official data and indirect estimates Consequence: - no reliable continuous demographic data on the whole population of England and Wales exist for the periods around the First and Second World Wars.

Identification of the problem Note Spanish flu in 1918. Male excess mortality is higher during the wars due to recruited men.

E&W: major part of combat losses is not included Weak effects in men compared to estimated war losses. WW1: almost nothing but Spanish flu. WW2: Not so much of difference between men and women. Deaths of combat population in English hospitals could be included.

Model of population flows and mortality in war operations Army Civilian Population In Migration Mobilization Demobilization Out Military Deaths Civilian Deaths

Model of population flows and mortality in war operations: war time Probability of death: Mobilization (Conscripts) Combat population Military deaths Here is migration, indexes a and c mean “Army” and “civilian” respectively,

Model of population flows and mortality in war operations: after war time Demobilization (Discharges) Army tbegin tend T

Model of population flows and mortality in war operations: input/output data Civilian population and deaths by one year age groups Strength of the army for years of war Pa(t) Distributions of total military deaths by years of war Da(t) Output: Combat population and military deaths by one year age group for each calendar year before the first “after-war” census

Model of population flows and mortality in war operations:functional Parameters: (probability of deaths) and (migration)

First World War: 1914-1918 What is known 1. Combat population: - Total number of the British combat population for each year of the war (1,2) 2. Army losses: - Total number of killed in the British army during the War(1) - Number of killed for each year of the War for E&W (indirect estimations) (1,2) 3. Additional data on the British Army losses derived from the Prudential’s Life Tables was used for verification: - Age-specific war-related deaths for each year from 1914 to 1917.(2) Data sources (1) General Annual Report of the British Army 1913-1919 (1921). Cmd 1193. (2) Winter, J.M. (2003). The Great War and the British People. Palgrave Macmillan, 360 p.

First World War: 1914-1918 Results of the simulation Model1: no migration during the war Model2: migration during war time allows to get “official” size of army

First World War: 1914-1918 Distributions of “total” deaths Winter, J.M. (2003). The Great War and the British People. Estimates of total deaths according to alternative Prudential LT Results of simulation. Model without migration.

First World War: 1914-1918 Probability of death for “total” population: results of simulation

Second World War: 1939-1945 What is known 1. Combat population: - Official estimates for non-civilian population of England&Wales by five year age groups, 1940-1945 (1) - Demobilization of the British forces 1945-1947 (2) 2. Army losses: - Number of killed in the Army of E&W for each year of the War, 1939-1945.(3) Data sources (1) The Registrar Generals (1951). Statistical Review of England and Wales for the Six Years 1940-1945. Vol.II. HMSO, London, pp.10. (2) Howlett, P. (1995). Fighting with Figures. A Statistical Digest of the Second World War. Central Statitical Office, HMSO, London, 298p. (3) Urlanis, B. (1971). Wars and Population. Progress Publishers, Moscow, 320 p.

Second World War: 1939-1945 Adjustment of the model: Results: Combat population: Maximum of the difference (over all age groups and years) is less then 0.1%

Second World War: 1939-1945 Probability of death for “total”: results of simulation

England and Wales: Period q25, Total vs. Civilian, males

England and Wales: Period e0, Total vs. Civilian, males

Conclusion We produced a continues series for England and Wales, which goes through the war times and includes estimates of non-civilian population and deaths in war operations For the WW1 and the WWII we used the same model Comparisons of the obtained population estimates with different indirect estimates give good results. There is an opportunity of applying the model for estimation of combat population and war losses in other countries included in the HMD