Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) Wind and PV Resource Aggregation study (final results) PUBLIC PRESENTATION 3 March 2016 CSIR International Convention Centre

Outline Historical Wind Atlases for South Africa Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) WASA methodology WASA main results & Application Physical Wind Measurements for Verification Verified Numerical Wind Atlas VNWA WRF Time Series Extreme Wind Atlas WASA Highlights Conclusion

Historical South African Wind Atlases DME; R. Diab 1995 SARERD, 2001 Tripod Review of Wind Energy Resources in South Africa (2002) concluded: These studies are inconclusive and under estimate the true wind energy potential as weather measurement stations at 10 m were used and in may cases these stations are shaded by buildings etc from measuring the true wind potential; and Recommended that a dedicated wind energy measurement program be undertaken to confirm South Africa’s true wind energy potential

Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) : The Wind Atlas for South Africa is a Capacity Development and Research Cooperation Initiative of the South African Department of Energy (DoE). WASA is implemented by SANEDI. Phase 1 (2009 – 2014) covers Western Cape and parts of Northern and Eastern Cape provinces and were funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) R8 million with UNDP support through the South African Wind Energy Programme (SAWEP) and co-funded by Danida (DKK9.9 million). Phase 2 (2014 to 2018) covers the remaining areas of Eastern Cape, KZN and Free State provinces and is funded by the Government of Denmark (DKK 12 million) SAWEP Phase 2 (to commence) include support to cover remaining areas of the Northern Cape province Implementation Partners: UCT CSAG (Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town) mesoscale modelling CSIR (Built Environment, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research) Measurements, microscale modelling, application SAWS (South African Weather Service) extreme wind assessment DTU Wind Energy* (Dept of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark) partner in all activities

Meso & micro corrections WASA Methodology Numerical Wind Atlas Wind Resource Map Meso & micro corrections Verification WP1 Mesoscale Modelling WP2 Wind Measurements WP3 Microscale Modelling WP4 Application WP5 Extreme Wind Atlas WP6 Documentation & Dissemination, see: http://www.wasaproject.info

Physical Wind Measurements for Verification WM14 WM13 WM15 WM1 WM12 WM11 - 15 WASA 2 (Oct 2015 -_) WM11 WM2 WM1-10 WASA 1 (2010 - ) WM9 WM3 WM10 WM6 WM4 WM7 10 minutes data and graphs available online: http://www.wasa.csir.co.za Data downloads here: http://wasadata.csir.co.za/wasa1/WASAData WM5 WM8

The WASA wind measurement campaign 10 meteorological masts were installed Positions chosen carefully to cover the WASA domain be in the representative terrain types and climatology found in the domain be suitable for modelling Not chosen for the ‘windiest’ locations or ‘best locations’ for wind farms Data automatically recorded and downloaded remotely and checked regularly to minimize loss of data or data gaps Designed and installed to IEC standards and Measnet guidelines Regular maintenance Image from Google ©2010 Europa Technologies ©2010 Cnes/Spot Image US Dept of State Geographer Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO

Features of WASA wind met stations Instrumentation arranged to minimise errors and uncertainties due to flow distortion Proven sensors of high quality and individually calibrated Anemometers at five different heights: 10, 20, 40, 60 and 62m Wind vanes at two heights: 20 & 60m Temperature and pressure sensors Data recorded at 10 minute average intervals Turbulence calculated and recorded

Verified Numerical Wind Atlas (VNWA) VNWA for South Africa, based on WRF Weather Research & Forecasting model (generalised wind climate – mean wind speed, 100 m a.g.l, flat terrain, 3 km x 3 km grid spacing, 40 000 “virtual wind masts”) Measurements are used to verify not to create the VNWA

It is not all about average wind speeds A comparison of the distributions of wind directions wind speeds … for the WRF-based NWA also shows very good agreement WM05 Observed wind atlas WRF-based NWA Andrea Hahmann (DTU Wind Energy) “The WRF- based WASA wind atlas is the first wind atlas study where the generalisation has been carried out on the WRF-model output with excellent results.”

Seasonal and diurnal cycles in the observations and the WRF simulations

WASA Large Scale High Resolution Wind Resource map Large-scale high-resolution wind resource map launched in April 2014 (local wind climate, 250 m grid spacing with the mean wind speed @ 100 a.g.l On average, the WASA large scale, high resolution, wind resource map estimates the wind speed accurately at the WASA mast sites with an uncertainty of less than 2.2%

VNWA Application Estimation of Annual Energy Production AEP (WASA Guides). Saves time and costs as the bankability of a potential wind farm site can now be estimated and physical wind measurements are to be undertaken for bankable wind sites. Estimating of the real wind resource potential. The high-resolution wind resource map depicts the local wind climate that a wind turbine would encounter. It also offers important benefits for developers, policy makers, utilities and the industry, including the following: Levels the playing field between small and large industry players to identify and develop wind hot spots. Identifies possible wind development zones in line with the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) studies or in line with frameworks. The DEA’s SEA for solar photovoltaic and wind is an example of such an SEA study and is available at http://www.csir. co.za/nationalwindsolarsea/ Long-term grid planning to connect with high-potential wind development areas. Wind farm planning in positioning (micro siting) the wind turbines for optimal wind exposures.

WRF Wind time series data The wind time series provides hourly data that is particularly useful: to study the annual, seasonal and diurnal variations in wind resources; as input to power system modelling; to study the geographical cross correlation of wind across South Africa; and for long-term corrections of the wind resources given by the WRF wind climate files. Time series data with spatial and temporal resolutions of 9 km and one hour are available online from 1 Sept 1990 to 31 Dec 2012 (WASA 1). Basis of and further developed for whole of South Africa in the Wind and Solar Resource Aggregation Study for South Africa.

WASA Main Results cont: Extreme Wind Atlas 1:50 yr 10 min wind speed [m/s] @ 10 m above ground level (standard conditions)

WASA Phase 1 Highlights Website user statistics captured through registration on http://wasadata.csir.co.za/wasa1/WASAData  1759 registered users from 66 countries with 55150 downloads (April 2015) WASA is a technical partner and included in the IRENA Global Atlas for Renewable Energy (http://irena.masdar.ac.ae/?map=405 ) and used in the verification of the EUDP Global Wind Atlas (globalwindatlas.com) Some projects, programs etc referencing, making use of WASA: Dept of Environmental Affairs: Strategic Environmental Assessment, Renewable Energy (PV, Wind) Development zones, approved by Cabinet for Gazetting, 17 Feb 2016    World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme, Renewable Energy Resource Mapping Initiative. 2013. Renewable Energy Mapping: Wind in Pakistan, South Asia Region, Project ID: P146140, Selection: 1118422. Palestinian Energy Authority. 2013. Request for Proposal for the Energy Section Assistance in Palestine, Phase V (RFP No. Phase V-PEA/CS-W).  

WASA Phase 1 Highlights cont. Feasibility of the WWF Renewable Energy Vision 2030 - South Africa http://www.wwf.org.za/media_room/publications/?14461/feasibility-of-the-wwf-renewable-energy-vision-2030---south-africa CSIR Energy Centre, SANEDI Eskom PV & Wind Aggregation study Danish RE EE Program: System adequacy and reserve margins with increasing levels of variable generation Courses at Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), making use of WASA: WasP, WAsP e-learning courses, DTU course 46200 on Planning and Development of Wind Farms The WASA is the first project to use the DTU wind resource mapping tool Frogfoot successfully at a large scale when it created the large scale high resolution wind resource map. The WASA WRF based wind atlas is the 1st wind atlas study where the generalisation has been carried out on the WRF-model output with excellent results.

Conclusion State of the Art Wind Atlas method Public domain through websites Transparent methodology no “black box” Verified with proper wind measurements, traceable Data + Application, Guidelines, Training Level playing field Save time and money Not a substitution for mandatory wind measurements http://www.wasaproject.info/ (information, presentations) http://www.wasa.csir.co.za (wind measurement mast online graphs) http://wasadata.csir.co.za/wasa1/WASAData (final reports, guides, data downloads) WRF http://veaonline.risoe.dk/wasa (WRF wind forecasting) Numerical Wind Atlas database access through Tadpole http://wasaclimates.eu/Tadpole/Viewer?gid=08aee5e5-e31f-416a-ad12-9a7a4d26f92e

Minister of Energy, Tina Joemat-Pettersson (speech delivered by Acting DG at the Windaba 2014) “I am now happy to say the key results of the First Phase that have been independently verified by a team of scientists working on the Wind Atlas project of South Africa using both numerically modelled data and practical observational methods and analysis, confirm that South Africa has an excellent wind resource” Johan van den Berg, CEO WASA WASA 1 Book “The opportunity exists now www.wasaproject.info with private sector continuing measuring the exact wind regime and WASA expanding to map the remainder of the country, together confirming and unlocking South Africa’s excellent wind resource. The future relevance of WASA looks as unequivocal as the historical relevance.” The WASA Phase 1 Book can be downloaded here http://www.wasaproject.info/docs/WASABooklet.pdf

WASA team

Andre Otto andreo@sanedi.org.za +27828770128