National RPO Technical Meeting June 9, 2005 Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM Tools and Techniques for Identifying Contributions to Regional Haze in the MANE-VU Region National RPO Technical Meeting June 9, 2005 Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

What tools and techniques has MANE-VU developed to improve our understanding of attribution? MANE-VU is building a weight of evidence approach looking at monitoring data, emissions inventory data, regional air-quality modeling and key data analysis findings All these techniques have been synthesized and interpreted in an interim “contribution assessment” or pollution apportionment report Lye Brook Falls Lye Brook Vermont March 15, 2004

Conceptual Model Summertime PM results largely from the regional transport/production of sulfate Wintertime PM results from the regional transport/production of sulfate + local sulfate + local organics + local nitrate Worst twenty percent days are mostly summer, but include several winter days as well Woodcock Moosehorn Maine March 15, 2004

Monitoring Review 2002 monitoring data Demonstrate how these data support the conceptual model Review Baseline Conditions Illustrate implications for control strategies Review RAIN and how M-V is preparing for long-term demands of monitoring strategy Mulholland Point Lighthouse Roosevelt Campobello Maine March 15, 2004

Monitoring Data: Rural/Urban March 15, 2004

Monitoring Data: Seasonality 30-day running average PM2.5 for 2002 March 15, 2004

Weight of Evidence Approach Analytical technique Approach Emissions/distance Empirical Incremental Probability “Receptor”-based trajectory technique Cluster-weighted Probability Emissions x upwind probability Empirical/trajectory hybrid Source Apportionment Approaches Receptor model/trajectory hybrid REMSAD tagged species “Source”-based grid model CALPUFF with MM5-based meteorology “Source”-based dispersion model CALPUFF with observation based meteorology Geese Brigantine New Jersey March 15, 2004

Emissions/Distance Analysis March 15, 2004

Trajectory Analysis: Best Day/Worst Day March 15, 2004

Brigantine Sulfate Clustered Incremental Probability Cluster 1 replaced with subclusters (Top Quintile Expanded) Summer- April through September Winter- October through March 71% summer trajs 29% winter trajs Top 2.5% 68% summer trajs 32% winter trajs Top 2.5%-7% Top 20% worst sulfate days Top 7%-12% 58% summer trajs 42% winter trajs Top 12%-20% 59% summer trajs 41% winter trajs March 15, 2004

IP Results General consistency between : observed sulfate modeled “sulfate” source profiles observed visibility March 15, 2004

Source Apportionment Results March 15, 2004

Dispersion Modeling CALPUFF on large Northeast Domain MM5 meteorology processed with CALMET NWS surface obs/Rawindsonde/ASOS data processed with CALMET 1999 NEI/2002 CEMS Emissions Inventory data Two platforms at VT DEC and MDE/MDNR contractor Great Gulf Wilderness New Hampshire March 15, 2004

CALPUFF Domain March 15, 2004

CMAQ & REMSAD 36km National Domain/12km Northeast Subdomain MM5 Met from UMD MANE-VU 2002 Emissions Inventory March 15, 2004

Preliminary REMSAD results SO2 tagging: Elevated point sources from 32 eastern states only USEPA Clear Skies [2003] 2001 “proxy” inventory USEPA 1996 MM5 meteorology Bar Harbor, Maine March 15, 2004

REMSAD: Tagging Results March 15, 2004

REMSAD: Tagging Results March 15, 2004

REMSAD: Tagging Results March 15, 2004

REMSAD: Tagging Results March 15, 2004

Synthesis Goal is to provide the basis for the pollution apportionment component of state and tribal implementation plans Synthesis of monitoring, emissions, modeling and data analysis will provide a framework for developing control strategies focused on the root problems for our region March 15, 2004

Multiple Ranking Techniques Acadia National Park, ME March 15, 2004

Multiple Ranking Techniques Brigantine Wilderness, NJ March 15, 2004

Multiple Ranking Techniques Lye Brook Wilderness, VT March 15, 2004

Multiple Ranking Techniques Shenandoah National Park, VA March 15, 2004

Alternative ways view results AVG REMSAD CALF_VT CALF_MD E/D TR_IP TR_CWP PA OH NY MA IN MI WV VA NC WI IL TN MD ME NH KY GA TX AL MO IA VT NJ MN CT DE SC MS LA AR RI DC ACADIA: Ranked contributions to annual average sulfate by multiple techniques March 15, 2004

Alternative ways view results REMSAD CALPUFF-Obs CALPUFF-MM5 Cluster Weighted Probability Q/d Incremental Probability Ranked contributions to annual average sulfate grouped in quintiles for each technique March 15, 2004

Relative contribution of RPOs Relative contribution of RPOs? (to sulfate only; not including Canada yet) Acadia Brigantine Lye Brook Shenandoah March 15, 2004

Lyebrook Top 20% Sulfate Incremental Probability 1998-2002, Calculated at 500m, 1000m, and an average using the two heights 500 meters 1000 meters Mixed Height Mixed Height Calculation: All Day Weighted Average = (((500m Sept thru May Allday_Prob)*1365)+(1000m Jun thru Aug Allday Prob)*460)))/(1365+460) High Day Weighted Average = (((500m Sept thru May Hiday_Prob)*1365)+(1000m Jun thru Aug Hiday Prob)*460)))/(1365+460) IncProb_mixed_ht = High Day Weighted Average – All Day Weighted Average 1365 = Number of days Sept – May 460 = Number of days Jun - Aug

March 15, 2004