PROMITHEAS - 4 Paving Green Pathways in 12 countries Energy and Climate Change 6th International Conference PROMITHEAS - 4 Paving Green Pathways in 12 countries Prof. Dimitrios MAVRAKIS Director Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA) As I have mentioned before we consider PROMITHEAS -4 not as a simple project but as a small contribution of the scientific community for the development of green pathways in our region. In this concept it is important to understand the fundamental drivers of the problem, the international efforts, the regional outlook and the emerging opportunities to participate in the common efforts.

Contents Understanding the challenge . . . Tracing green pathways . . . What in our region . . . Conclusions First, It is necessary to understand what creates the problem Second, we have to have a quick update of the state of the ongoing efforts to resolve it. Third, you will be informed about the main characteristics of our region, as they come from the national reports that will be presented in the next session Finally, based on these characteristics some conclusions will be presented defining needs, gaps and economic opportunities at national and regional level National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Understanding . . . We the humans . . . Needs and consequences The threat of climate change refers to the survival of human kind and has nothing to do with the planet itself. The situation resembles to the period when the dinosaurs disappeared. Earth kept moving without them and the same may happen with humans. The only difference is that humans are responsible for their catastrophe. The tragic irony is that we destroy our future as a result of our efforts to survive and increase the quality of our lives. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Rates of Growth It took us million of years to reach the figure of 1 bln, 123 years to double our population, but only 13 years to add ONE more billion and reach the 7 billions. We already follow an exponential curb that drives to 9.6 billions sometime around 2050.

Projected world population (1950 – 2100) This graph is divided in two parts. The left corresponds to the present state. It is obvious that Asia is the continent where the human explosion occurs. But what is also important is the yellow curvee of Africa. Coming to the right part we have the model forecasts according to various scenarios. In a BAU approach it is logical to expect that following the present trends at the end of the century the population may have passed the threshold of the 11 billions. In our discussion we have to remember both the present situation and the perspectives. Now the next important issue is to understand where all those new people are live and what is their primary need for survival and well- being. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Projected growth in primary energy demand 2010-2035 Global energy demand will be driven by China and India accounting for 50% of the growth while the whole Asia is expected to absorb the 2/3 of this growth. If this is expected to be the situation the next step is to understand the mixture of fuels that will satisfy this expected demand. Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China and India accounting for 50% of the growth Source: IEA statistics, 2010

World primary energy consumption 1986-2011 Fossil fuel will continue to play a dominant role in world supply and consumption. Unconventional gas and sand oil has already redrawn global energy projections. Shale gas has already a important share in the US energy mixture and the discussion concerning the sand oils of Canada will have a certain impact in the market of their final destination. Methane hydrate are expected to enter the market before the end of 2050 and this will also have a serious impact on the worlds energy map. Indeed there is an ongoing discussion concerning the future of nuclear energy. There is no dough that they will continue to contribute in the energy suppply, at least till the end of the century. So the problem with nuclear stations will not be their decommissioning but the avoidance of catastrophic accidents. New generation reactors and enhanced safety standards can be a rational answer to this type of threats instead of using aging and old generation reactors. There is also an ongoing discussion about fusion and the relevant ITER program. But it is clear that we can not expect any contribution before the end of this century provided that the ongoing project will conclude with success. In conclusion coal and hydrocarbons will unavoidably dominate in the energy production until the end of our century and this should be taken seriously when we will discuss about CO2 emissions in the next slide. Source: BP statistical review of world energy – June 2012

Trends in CO2 emissions

Beyond the 20 C level 2060* * World Economic Forum Wheat prices rose by 30% between April – July 2012 because of rises in crude prices, droughts and weather disruptions (World Bank’s Price watch) Dry summer in Russia , Ukraine and Kazakhstan lead to wheat production losses of more than 6 million tones (10% of yearly production) Water and Energy supplies will become increasingly interdependent and greater competition for resources could lead to conflict and instability * World Economic Forum

Tracing green pathways . . . The ultimate challenge The Kyoto protocol contribution The UNFCCC framework for various approaches National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

The ultimate challenge A Green Sustainable and Equitable Economic Development Capable to: Reduce GHG emissions – Mitigation Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change – Adaptation (Agriculture, Energy sector, Water resources, Infrastructure, Tourism, Health sector, Ecosystems) Secure equitable economic development – Green economy

The Kyoto protocol process 1st commitment period 2005 – 2012 Annex 1 and non Annex 1 countries CDM, JI, ETS Top to down procedure, limited success 2nd commitment period 2013 – 2020 Part of Annex 1(15% of global emissions) CCS* under CDM (Durban) Less parties with binding targets *CCS : Carbon Capture Storage

Kyoto protocol (Present state of world actual commitment) Carbon Pricing Scenarios July 2013 PROMETHIUM

Copenhagen Accord Assist developing countries in Adaptation Mitigation Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) $ 100 bl /year up to 2020 (2.34 bn € mobilized by EU in 2011 still pending)

A promising perspective The Framework1 for various approaches under UNFCCC2 With the aim to promote cost effectiveness of mitigation actions: Parties may individually or jointly develop and implement such approaches in accordance with their national circumstances which may include the following: Bilateral, domestic, voluntary offset programs Sub-national, national and regional trading systems Other market and non market approaches 1/cp 17-Preamble of Section E UNFCCC :United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Framework for various approaches NMMs in Charts IGES - JAPAN

New Market Mechanisms (NMMs) Components

Expected evolution of ETS Carbon Pricing Scenarios July 2013 PROMETHIUM

What in our region . . . PROMITHEAS – 4 Developing policy mixtures Mapping the region Reviewing policies Trends and consequences National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

PROMITHEAS – 4 (General information) Title: “Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios” Type: EU – FP7 (ENV – Cooperation, Contract No. 265182) Duration: Three (3) years (2011-2013) Budget: One (1) Mil. Euros (Approx.) Partners: 16 Institutes - 14 countries Beneficiaries: 12 emerging economies

Developing M/A policy mixtures Review the climate change policies of beneficiaries Collect and develop databases and scenarios (BAU, PES, OPT) Run LEAP model Assess policy mixtures (AMS) Comment policy mixtures in national conferences Develop and implement intensive knowledge transfer procedures Keep informed the governmental authorities National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

State of implementation of “Kyoto” in the region Ratification of Kyoto protocol Registered CDM projects Emission trading Adaptation policy Albania 01.04.2005 3 ─ Armenia 25.04.2003 6 Azerbaijan 28.09.2000 5 √** Bulgaria 15.08.2002 Annex B country EU-ETS,JI, GIS √* Georgia 16.06.1999 Greece 31.05.2002 EU-ETS Kazakhstan 19.06.2009 National ETS (2014) Moldova 22.04.2003 8 Romania 19.03.2001 EU-ETS,JI,GIS Russia 18.11.2004 JI, GIS Serbia 19.10.2007 Turkey 28.05.2009 - voluntary carbon market Ukraine 12.04.2004 * Transposition of Directive 2007/60/EC on assessment and management of flood risks, ** Water management & fees (2003, 2011)

CO2 emissions (Metric tons eq./capita) Source: PROMITHEAS – 4 results National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

CO2 emission reduction targets until 2020 Note: Target of Bulgaria (8%) refers to 2012.

Final energy consumption per capita Source: PROMITHEAS – 4 results

Energy efficiency policies Appliances Buildings* Energy sector Industry Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Bulgaria Kazakhstan Moldova Romania Russia Serbia Turkey Ukraine With policy instruments No policy instruments * Heat conservation, energy and insulation standards, energy management, etc. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Conclusions There is a knowledge gap in developing, implementing and assessing M/A policy mixtures The countries of the region do not participate (…so far) In the formation of the Global ETS In the development of regional NMMs There is a considerable potential in reducing energy intensity (Nationally and Regionally) National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Conclusions (Knowledge needs) Reliable data bases (Development and maintenance in both national and regional level) Expertise in Scenarios development (Assumptions, modifications) Models and assessment methods M/A policy mixtures (Implementation, modification) Social awareness among Policy and decision makers Market stakeholders Simple people National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Conclusions (Paving green pathways ) National Emission Trade Schemes (ETS) can be developed and converge regionally and globally, until 2030 Converging national NMMs, based on M/A policies, can provide economic benefits for the economies of the region Countries with emerging economies can be benefited from the green fund of the Copenhagen accord National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Conclusions (decreasing energy intensity) Increase the energy efficiency standards Encourage the use green technologies and smart networks Establish tradable certificates for all avoided emissions Enhance energy supply companies with energy saving services National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Thank you for your attention KEPA in Athens - Greece E-mail: epgsec@kepa.uoa.gr. Tel. + 30 210 727 5732

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

Global average surface temperature increase National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre