Political Science 200A Week 10 How Institutions Constrain Outcomes

Anthony Downs (1930- ) Ph.D. (Economics) Stanford University 1956 Academic appointment University of Chicago Senior Fellow, Brookings Institutions 1977- Economic Theory of Democracy (1957)

Downs 1. Epistemological lesson: Political scientists cannot simply aggregate individual preferences to predict macro-outcomes 2. Illustration of decisionmaking in institution-free environment Arrow’s impossibility theorem [McKelvey’s chaos theorem in multidimensional policy space]

William Riker (1920-1993) 1948. PhD. Harvard University Theory of Political Coalitions (1962) 1962-77 Department Chair, University of Rochester

Riker 1. Institutions shape macro-outcomes by Mechanical effect (aggregation of choices) Psychological effect (strategic behavior) Why does Riker emphasize choices by politicians and donors rather than voters? 2. Riker’s image of science Theory, testing, reformulation, re-testing

Riker (p. 761): “…the law is entirely empirical, the record of observations. It explains nothing and tells us nothing about why it works. It is the task of science to explain the law by incorporating it as a necessary inference inside a theory.”

Kenneth Shepsle Professor, Harvard University

Shepsle 1. Congressional institutions influence which majority wins Role of committees and chairs Agenda control Setting the procedures 2. Epistemological point: We cannot infer intent from outcomes We cannot simply aggregate micro-preferences to predict macro-outcomes

Shepsle (p. 249): “…it is still fruitless to attribute intent to the product of their collective action. Individual intents, even if they are unambiguous, do not add up like vectors. That is the content of Arrow....”

Samuel P. Huntington (1927-2008) Ph. D., Harvard University Career: Harvard, Columbia, Harvard Retired 2006 1957. The Soldier and the State 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies 1991. The Third Wave 1996. The Clash of Civilizations

Huntington. Political Order in Changing Societies Central claim: “The most important political distinction among countries concerns not their form of government but their degree of government.” (pg. 1) •Political communities with an overwhelming consensus among the people about the legitimacy of the political system.

Huntington. Political Order in Changing Societies 2. Institutionalization of political organizations (pg. 8-9) “a political organization or procedure . . . is an arrangement for maintaining order, resolving disputes, selecting authoritative leaders, and thus, promoting community. . . .” (p. 10) “institutions are the behavioral manifestation of the moral consensus and mutual interest.” (p. 12) “Institutions are stable, valued, recurring patterns of behavior.” (pg. 12) “Institutionalization is the process by which organizations and procedures acquire value and stability.”

Huntington. Political Order in Changing Societies 3. Balance of social forces and institutions Civic versus Praetorian Politics