Presentation by Dr. Jotham Musinguzi Director General National Population Council Population and Inclusive Growth September 15, 2017

Uganda’s population continues to grow rapidly…

Fertility Fertility rate in Uganda has historically been very high. According to trends of the Uganda Demographic and Health Surveys (UDHSs) conducted, fertility rate was 7.4 children per woman in 1989 and slowly declined to 6.2 in 2011 and then 5.4 in 2016.

Uganda’s Vision 2040 “A transformed Ugandan society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years” with a per capita GDP increasing from $506 in 2010 to US$9,500 by 2040. Recognizes Uganda’s rapid population growth, young age structure and consequent high child dependency burden among the threats to the achievement of socioeconomic development Vision 2040 pronounced “harnessing the demographic dividend” as one of the strategies for benefiting from the country’s abundant and youthful population.

The change in the population-age structure will also lead to an increase in GDP per capita. This was the experience of the Asian Tigers. Studies have shown that up to 30 per cent of the GDP per capita increase that they experienced was attributable to this transformation. This wealth generated as a result of the change in the age structure has been termed, “the Demographic Dividend” which is defined as “the economic benefit that can arise out of a country’s taking advantage of changing the population age structure and adopting clear, focused and sustained policies that empower the country’s working population to become the engine of economic growth”. It is NOT automatic!

How does a country achieve the demographic dividend? Source: Population Reference Bureau

Speeding the Demographic Transition Reduce child mortality – replacement effect Enhance education, particularly female school enrollment and general female empowerment Expand access to family planning, focusing on underserved sub-groups such as youth

Thank You