CANBERRA EVALUATON FORUM Understanding the power of statistics In evaluation THURSDAY 21 April 2016 #ipaacef

Carmel McGregor PSM FIPAA IPAA ACT Deputy President Chair Carmel McGregor PSM FIPAA IPAA ACT Deputy President #ipaacef

SPEAKER David W. Kalisch Australian Statistician Australian Bureau of Statistics #ipaacef

Understanding the power of statistics in evaluation Canberra Evaluation Forum 21 April 2016 David W. Kalisch Australian Statistician

Features of the ABS Trusted statistics for over 110 years Extensive statistical outputs across economic and social dimensions, and in latest year: 507 statistical products released 15.2 million visits to the ABS website 2.7 million downloads of ABS products 177 statistical business lines

Features of the ABS Iconic national organisation with international reputation Independence, transparency and rigour Balancing conservatism and innovation Fragile, ageing statistical infrastructure Committed focussed professional workforce

Over the past fifteen years: Features of the ABS Over the past fifteen years: ABS staff – 25% Population – 25% Economy – 60% Cmth Govt Outlays – 90%

Environment Context Information age Expanded stakeholder data requirements New information collection opportunities Opportunities for safe, expanded use of data Efficiency/Productivity and red tape reduction

ABS Transformation

Transforming for the future

ABS success

Evaluation Perspectives Personal experience Strong institutional history Strong institutions Current capability and perspectives Some underlying issues Independent vs in-house assessments Mechanistic evaluations, limited scope and resourcing

Situational Analysis Lack of systematic evaluation focussed on outcomes Marketing/assessment of programs? Evaluation requires careful analysis, time and stable policy settings Fiscal challenge

The ABS can help….. ABS has a lot of outcome information Both households and firms Government agencies have a lot of information about their programs But generally limited information about outcomes Strong case for partnerships…. Can demonstrate outcomes from programs through smart data use and analysis

Early examples Migrant settlement outcomes Settlements + Personal Income Tax data Outcomes from mental health interventions Census + Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) services + Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) prescriptions Factors to improve student outcomes Census + school enrolments + Australian Early Development Census + NAPLAN results Innovation and productivity in businesses Expanded Analytical Business Longitudinal Database Changes in socio-economic status over time Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset

New opportunities Linked Employer-Employee Dataset New source employment information Relationships between employer and employee Enduring linked government dataset trial Social security payments (DSS) Pharmaceutical benefits scheme (PBS) (Health/DHS) Personal income tax (ATO) Census (ABS) Australian Integrated Data Resource? Recent Joint Committee Public Accounts and Audit recommendation

How is this possible? Policy questions that need to be answered ABS accredited data integration facility Legislative protections World class confidentiality, methodology and ICT arrangements Community trust Experience managing large and sensitive data Effective partnerships between ABS and government agencies Draw on international experience Place value on administrative data Value of data integration

New Zealand Integrated Data Initiative NZ capability to link administrative data from 13 agencies to Census and Surveys Statistics NZ have the responsibility Strong legislative protections Community trust Infrastructure Expertise NZ Treasury – expanded data analysis capability

NZ Integrated Data Resource (cont’d)

NZ Integrated Data Initiative (cont’d) Taken a number of years to develop Modest cost compared to potential benefits for government and community Prototype stage – used by NZ Finance Minister and Cabinet to help assess merits of new proposals and existing programs Opportunity for Australia to catch up? Take 3+ years, but not from a zero base

Closing remarks Evaluations are important but bespoke approaches can be expensive Data availability and safe data integration can provide a good option at modest cost Integrated Data Resource, along the lines of that in NZ Can inform difficult policy choices Can deliver a good evidence base at modest cost Does require data analysis capability across government

QUESTION AND ANSWER #ipaacef

Chair, Canberra Evaluation Forum CEF UPDATE Pierre Skorich Chair, Canberra Evaluation Forum #ipaacef

UPCOMING IPAA EVENT HIGHLIGHTS We have some great events over the next month: Grant Hehir – Auditor-General of Australia 9:00am – Wednesday 27th April Michael Pezzullo – Secretary of the Department of Immigration and Border Protection 9:00am – Tuesday 10th May More information available at www.act.ipaa.org.au Hold the date – our conference is now scheduled for Thursday 10th November with dinner the evening prior

CANBERRA EVALUATON FORUM Thank you for attending THURSDAY 21 April 2016 #ipaacef