EU-FP6-EFIMAS Participatory Fisheries Management Evaluation Frameworks and example of use for fleet based MSE in North Sea mixed fisheries J. Rasmus Nielsen, EFIMAS Coordinator and Clara Ulrich-Rescan, Katell Hamon and Stuart Reeves EFIMAS 2004-2008 About 30 Research Institutes with Multi-Disciplinary Expertise Biology – Economy – Sociology Fisheries Research Institutes and Universities

EFIMAS Project – EU FP6 SSP8-CT-2003-50251 EFIMAS - Operational Evaluation Tools for Fisheries Management Options EFIMAS: EU FP6 Financed Project. Project period: 2004-2008. Total Project Budget: 7.5 Mill. EURO (EU Financing: 4.5 Mill. EURO) Intenational Coordinator: DIFRES Participants (29 Research Institutes and Universities): Fisheries Biological Institutes: 16 national institutes (4 universities now) & 1 university participating Bio-economical Institutes: 7 national institutes & 5 universities participating

Overall Concept, idea and objectives of EFIMAS To establish a bio-economic Fisheries Management Evaluation Framework Simulation framework being able to run stochastic simulations Take account of dynamics of the fisheries system including fleet dynamics and interactions, economic effects and sociological effects besides biological stock effects (i.e. fleets and stocks - not only stocks) Which can compare the performance of a range of management options under alternative management systems and objectives (scenario evaluation) Which can evaluate alternative management strategies (MSE), e.g. mixed fisheries Which can be applied and implemented to a number of EU Fisheries systems Which can be perform: technical evaluation (uncertainty, robustness and sensitivity assessment) sociological process evaluation through feed-back from stakeholders

Structure and Work Package Cyclic Feed-back EFIMAS Project Structure Structure and Work Package Cyclic Feed-back WP1 Project management (DIFRES) WP2 Knowledge review (AZTI) WP3 Generic framework development (CEFAS / DIFRES) WP5 Evaluation (IFM) WP4 Case study application (IMARES, DIFRES, CEMARE)

WP2: Review of Global and European Knowledge Basis to be used in EFIMAS Objectives / Deliverables: - review of relevant available knowledge base - review performance of relevant existing fisheries management systems - review existing frameworks for evaluation of fisheries management systems - review how management decision making processes are informed by knowledge and the limitations in communicating knowledge

WP2 Productions and Dissemination 1. Book in ELSEVIER Science Series 2006 “The Knowledge Base for Fisheries Management” 2. Technical Report on “Review and compilation of published relevant evaluations of management systems (world wide), and review and description of present management and management decision-making process (EU)”. 2a. Annex Report 1: “Overview of models, data and software used in contrasting Fisheries Management Systems” described in the main Technical Report.

WP 3 Generic Management Evaluation Framework Objectives / Deliverables: Provide simulation framework(s) to test alternative management options / strategies Provide software package(s) with full operating simulation models comprehending the biological and technical / economic dynamics (stock dynamics, fleet dynamics, technical interactions, etc). - Provide an integrated suite of software within a common language and interface and with full documentation

EFIMAS Conceptual Box Flow Diagram

OPERATING MODEL MANAGEMENT PROCEDURE Management decision stage Represents the “true” dynamics of the system against which performance will be measured Fleet dynamics FLFleet MANAGEMENT PROCEDURE Assess status of stock and set management options depending upon perceived status of fishery stock(s) Management decision stage Biological reference points (e.g. MSY) FLBRP Management procedure FLHCR MODEL CONDITIONING IMPLEMENTATION MODEL FLEcon INITIAL CONDITIONS OBSERVATION ERROR MODEL Generation of data on fishery and stocks. FLOEM SUMMARY STATISTICS Used to evaluate performance of management procedures against objectives. Population biology Stock dynamics FLBiol Stock processes e.g. Recruitment FLSR Assessment procedure Assessment assumptions Auxiliary information (e.g. tuning indices) FLIndices Perceived stock FLStock Stock assessment (e.g. VPA) FLAssess

The EFIMAS and FLR Approach FLR is a framework e.g. a library of “lego blocks” which can be used to build different case specific models, and allows collaboration since anybody can design new lego blocks (object oriented). It is “Open Source” all source code is available Uses an existing interface and statistical/graphical R tools The FLR library is based upon R and the S4 Classes

WP4: Application of the framework to selected case studies and case specific analyses Case specific applications for 8 case studies representing important EU Fisheries and addressing different general and typological management problems in European fisheries management Purpose: to apply and test the evaluation framework on case studies to apply descriptive fisheries / stocks assessment models and analysis tools to analyse the biological and economical-technical dynamics for case studies to evaluate relevant management scenarios to further develop existing descriptive models and tools for the evaluation frame to develop further the contents of the framework by testing on case studies (including documentation and user-interface)

WP4: Key issues addressed by Case Study

WP5: Evaluation (and Dissemination) Objectives Technical and process evaluation of the evaluation framework Provision of feed back from e.g. stakeholders for Work Packages 3 and 4 Technical Evaluation WP3-4: Evaluation of the framework and descriptive models through: - uncertainty assessment (stochastic and repeated simulation) (structure and process errors (structural uncertainty); observation errors (parametric uncertainty); implementation error) - sensitivity and robustness (alteration of (key) parameters) - predictive power (scenario evaluation) - identification of limitations in use and set-up of the models - proof reading and testing of code

WP5: Results / Status of work Process Evaluation: Interviews have been carried out with decision makers who make use of bio-economic models Five focus groups have been held in each of 5 countries with several meetings in all countries with different stakeholders - UK, Ireland, Spain, Denmark and Greece Targeted stakeholders: skippers, processors, women in fishing societies, local and regional managers, and conservationists. Discussed perceptions of fisheries models in general and the EFIMAS approach in particular

Examples of dissemination and application of participatory modelling using output from EFIMAS

Example: North Sea mixed roundfish fisheries MSE Issue : technical interactions cod-haddock Low cod biomass High haddock biomass Effects of cod recovery plan not as wide as expected Stocks caught together by main demersal fleets

How may TAC work in such situations? North Sea mixed roundfish fisheries MSE How may TAC work in such situations? Low cod TAC, taken with low effort / high haddock TAC, taken with a higher level of effort Fleets dilemma: stop fishing when cod TAC caught and underutilise haddock TAC (”min effort” scenario) go on fishing until haddock TAC caught and get overquota catches of cod (”max effort” scenario) What are the long-term effects of such scenarios? simulation work, with 11 fleets and ICES/EU management procedures

Results Max Effort Min Effort Black : “Real truth” (simulated underlying population) Green : “Perceived truth” (seen from VPA’s eyes and used for deciding upon management)

The next step : providing mixed-fisheries advice Question : which single-species TAC should be proposed to be consistent across stocks? Methodology : The Fcube approach (ICES MixMan 2006 - 2008) Main focus : fleets (vessel types) and fisheries (activity types) Each fleet has its own set of incentives based on its set of quota shares Hypotheses are proposed on their likely behaviour and level of effort (max, min, valuable species, days at sea regulation…) corresponding landings (< quota share) and overquota catches (> quota share) are estimated

North Sea mixed roundfish fisheries MSE Example : investigating effects of 2007 TACs Cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, sole, plaice, Nephrops Very restrictive cod TAC, unrestrictive whiting TAC All international North Sea fleets (19) Scenarios : ”min” (stop fishing when first quota exhausted) ”max” (stop fishing when last quota exhausted) ”value” (effort towards most valuable quota shares) ”status quo” (unchanged effort between 2006 and 2007) ”DAS reduction” (partial reduction of cod-targeting fisheries) ”cod” (action necessary to avoid cod overquota for all fleets)

Cod TAC Sole TAC Saithe TAC Haddock TAC Plaice TAC Results

North Sea mixed roundfish fisheries MSE Results

Conclusions North Sea mixed roundfish fisheries MSE Inconsistent 2007 TAC, single-species management objectives cannot be reached simultaneously At current levels of effort, large cod overquota are estimated to have happened in 2007 It is possible to test the biological and economic effects of alternative consistent TAC (short-, medium- and long-term), as a basis for robust mixed-fisheries management plans This approach can be enlarged to non-target species and broader ecosystem approach

The established Evaluation Framework(s) Developed in cooperation with other projects: with overlapping case studies (e.g. COMMIT using FLR); other projects with other purposes (e.g. PROTECT evaluating closed areas / seasons using TEMAS, ISIS-FISH), (e.g. UNCOVER/BECAUSE integrating multi-species aspects using SMS, 4M, FLR), (e.g. FISBOAT using FLR and other models for research survey evaluation) Results in Technical Reports and at EFIMAS Web Sites: EFIMAS DokuWiki: http://wiki.difres.dk/efimas/doku.php?do=login&id=efimas FLR Web Site: http://www.flr-project.org/doku.php EFIMAS PublicWeb Site: http://www.efimas.org/ Development and status described at the FLR website with the whole evaluation framework and case study implementation http://flr-project.org/doku.php In particular the summary of packages http://flr-project.org/doku.php?id=pkg:packages Publication in many scientific papers, Dissemination and Stakeholder feed-back among other obtained at the EFIMAS Conference Framework and network development on Economics through ECONOWS Multi-disciplinary network / Platform establishment (cross sectoral)