Greg Kats and Keith Glassbrook, Capital E SMART SURFACES DC Actively managing District sun and rain to improve health and comfort and slow global warming while saving several billion dollars Greg Kats and Keith Glassbrook, Capital E FUNDING PROVIDED BY:

National Partners District Partners

Acknowledgements Special Thanks Tommy Wells, Jeff Seltzer, Brian VanWye, Bill Updike, and Jay Wilson of the Department of Energy & Environment Mark Chambers of the Department of General Services Sam Brooks of ClearRock (formerly of DGS) Neal Fann of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Alex Kats-Rubin of Abt Associates Paul Lanning of Lightbox Energy (formerly of Bluefin LLC) Kurt Shickman of Global Cool Cities Alliance Robert Ivy and John Schneidawind of AIA Harriet Tregoning of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Extra special thanks are due to Ariana Vaisey and Grace Buie, our wonderful interns 2015 and 2016, respectively

Advisors who provided guidance and feedback throughout the development of this report. Our Advisors include: Sean Cahill (Senior VP of Development, Property Group Partners; Immediate Past President, DC Building Industry Association), Dr. John Davies-Cole (State Epidemiologist, Center for Policy, Planning & Evaluation, DC Department of Health); Dr. Lynn Goldman (Dean, Milken Institute School of Public Health (GWU); Epidemiologist; former EPA Assistant Administrator); Dr. Ronnen Levinson (Deputy Leader, Heat Island Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory); Dr. Art Rosenfeld (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; former Commissioner at the California Energy Commission; co-founder of the American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy (ACEEE)); Kurt Shickman (Executive Director of Global Cool Cities Alliance); Dan Tangherlini (former Administrator of GSA; former City Administrator of Washington, DC).

Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions Results Conclusions Appendix

Smart Roofs – Department of General Services (Phase 1) Washington, DC has ambitious energy, greening, and health objectives, embodied in Sustainable DC Plan The District’s Department of General Services (DGS) is greening its portfolio of 28 million SF, including 11 million SF of roofs (of which 9 million SF are low slope) DGS hired Capital E in 2013 to undertake a cost-benefit analysis for the District’s Smart Roof Program Present value over 40 years for each roof technology on all DGS low slope roofs COMPARISON Cool Roofs Green Roofs Conventional w/ PV (PPA) COSTS $5,580,000 $203,000,000 $0 BENEFITS $52,100,000 $538,000,000 $294,000,000 Energy $17,100,000 $21,000,000 $34,500,000 Stormwater N/A $482,000,000 Health $32,900,000 $31,600,000 $205,000,000 Climate change $2,110,000 $3,310,000 $54,700,000 TOTAL NPV $46,500,000 $335,000,000 Roof technology Internal Rate of Return Simple Payback Period (years) Cool roof 91% 2 Green roof 11% 11 PV (PPA) N/A

Smart Surfaces – DGS and Department of Energy & Environment (Phase 2) Builds on Smart Roof project for DGS Goal: estimate the costs and benefits of city-wide deployment of smart surface solutions Smart Surfaces: Cool roofs Cool roofs with bioretention or rainwater harvesting Green roofs Solar PV Reflective pavements Permeable pavements Urban trees

Opportunity and Need Residents of Washington, DC (the District) already suffer through hotter and more humid summers due to climate change The District is projected to experience substantial increases in the number of days above 90°F, 95°F, and 100°F The number of days above 100°F is expected to increase four- to nine-fold Higher temperatures will threaten summer tourism and will increase smog formation and cooling energy use, further threatening District livability in the summer Image Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), “Adapting to Climate Change: Federal Agencies in the Washington, DC Metro Area,” 2012.

THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (Updated Spring 2016) Global Warming/ climate change is accelerating, not slowing

Opportunity and Need (cont.) DOEE predicts that: Extreme precipitation events will increase in frequency and intensity Sea level rise will continue and even accelerate The size and frequency of “design” storms, which engineers and designers use to appropriately size stormwater infrastructure, will increase Image Source: Perkins + Will and Kleinfelder, Climate Projections & Scenario Development: Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the District of Columbia, 2016

Opportunity and Need (cont.) These temperature increases will put a severe strain on the city’s infrastructure Including increasing cooling energy use, reducing comfort, and increasing risk of heat-related deaths Changes in precipitation and sea level rise will put an enormous burden on the city’s stormwater infrastructure Increasingly difficult for infrastructure to handle stormwater runoff and sewage overflow  continued river contamination and further water infrastructure investment Demonstrates the need to prioritize urban cooling and stormwater managing measures in policy making and planning

Smart Surface Solutions Can Help A Lot… if costs and benefits understood Cool Roofs Green Roofs Solar PV Rainwater Harvesting Bioretention Urban Trees Permeable Pavements Reflective Pavements Image Sources: Heat Island Group, “Cool Roofs,” Berkeley Lab, accessed October 12, 2015; U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), “Green Roofs,” U.S. General Services Administration, July 28, 2015; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), “PVWatts Calculator,” NREL, accessed October 12, 2015; Christine E. Boyle, “The Slow March Forward of Utilities Embracing Rainwater Harvesting as an Alternative Water Supply,” Environmental Finance Blog, September 20, 2012; Department of Energy & Environment (DOEE), “Stormwater BMP Specifications,” Training Documents - 2013 Stormwater Management Rule and Guidebook, October 2013; Casey Trees, “Street Tree Information,” Casey Trees, accessed October 12, 2015; David Roberts, “Lightfinder Northwest,” accessed June 3, 2016; Heat Island Group, “Cool Pavements,” Berkeley Lab, accessed December 23, 2015

Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions Results Conclusions Appendix

Cool Roof Benefits Valued Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures Reduced heat-related mortality Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change

Cool Roof + Bioretention Benefits Valued Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures Reduced heat-related mortality Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change Reduced stormwater runoff Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management Increased employment Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting Benefits Valued Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures Reduced heat-related mortality Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change Reduced stormwater runoff Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management Reduced potable water use Water collected in rainwater harvesting system used for irrigation or non-potable indoor applications  reduced potable water expenditures Increased employment Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

Green Roof Benefits Valued Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings Reduced building energy use  lower energy expenditures Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduce mortality  lower healthcare expenditures Reduced heat-related mortality Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures Global cooling and reduced GHG emissions Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change Reduced stormwater runoff Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management Increased employment Increased labor intensity compared to conventional roofs  Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

Solar PV Electricity generation Financial incentives Offsets electricity purchases from the grid with electricity generated onsite  lower electricity expenditures Financial incentives Tax credits, depreciation, and solar renewable energy credits Reduced PM2.5 pollution Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and deaths  lower healthcare expenditures Reduced GHG emissions Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change Increased employment Increased income, increased tax revenue, and reduced welfare payments

Reflective Pavements Indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings Reduced building energy use  lower energy costs Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduced mortality  lower healthcare expenditures Reduced heat-related mortality Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures Global cooling and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change

Permeable Pavements Reduced stormwater runoff Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management Reduced pavement salt use Reduced use of pavement salt needed to prevent ice build-up  reduced deicing expenditures

Urban Trees Direct and indirect (urban heat island-related) energy savings Reduced building energy use  lower energy costs Reduced ozone and fine particle (PM2.5) pollution Reduced incidences of respiratory (e.g., worsened asthma, inflammation) and cardiovascular (e.g., heart disease) health problems and reduce mortality  lower healthcare expenditures Reduced heat-related mortality Fewer deaths during the warm season that are related to the urban heat island  lower healthcare expenditures Global cooling and reduced GHG emissions Reduced climate change impacts  decreased economic damage due to climate change Reduced stormwater runoff Reduced stormwater runoff from the roof that contributes to combined sewer overflows and flash flooding and that harms local waterbodies and wildlife  reduced costs of stormwater management

Climate Change Mitigation Pathways Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results ↑ Roof albedo ↓ GHG emissions (1) ↓ Ambient temperature (2) ↓ Energy use ↓ Climate change (3) ↑ Global cooling ↑ PV panels ↓ GHG emissions (1) ↓ Grid electricity use ↓ Climate change ↑ Rooftop vegetation (1) ↓ Ambient temperature (2) ↓ Energy use ↓ GHG emissions ↓ Climate change (4) ↑ Carbon sequestration (3) ↑ Global cooling

Climate Change Mitigation Pathways (cont.) Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results ↑ Pavement albedo ↓ GHG emissions (1) ↓ Ambient temperature ↓ Energy use ↓ Climate change (2) ↑ Global cooling ↑ Bioretention (1) ↓ Ambient temperature ↓ Energy use ↓ GHG emissions ↓ Climate change (2) ↑ Carbon sequestration

Ozone Reduction Pathways Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results ↑ Roof albedo ↓ Ozone precursor emissions (1) ↓ Ambient temperature (2) ↓ Energy use ↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction) ↑ PV panels ↓ Ozone precursor emissions (1) ↓ Grid electricity use ↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction) ↑ Rooftop vegetation (1) ↓ Ambient temperature (2) ↓ Energy use ↓ Ozone precursor emissions ↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction) ↓ Ozone conc. (4) Directly remove ozone (3) Directly remove NO2

Ozone Reduction Pathways (cont.) Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results ↑ Pavement albedo ↓ Ozone precursor emissions (1) ↓ Ambient temperature ↓ Energy use ↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction) ↑ Bioretention (1) ↓ Ambient temperature ↓ Energy use ↓ Ozone precursor emissions ↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction) ↓ Ozone conc. (3) Directly remove ozone (2) Directly remove NO2 ↑ Urban trees (1) ↓ Ambient temperature (2) ↓ Energy use ↓ Ozone precursor emissions ↓ Ozone formation (indirect conc. reduction) ↓ Ozone conc. (4) Directly remove ozone (3) Directly remove NO2

PM2.5 Reduction Pathways Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results ↑ Roof albedo ↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions (1) ↓ Ambient temperature (2) ↓ Energy use ↓ PM2.5 pollution ↑ PV panels ↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions (1) ↓ Grid electricity use ↓ PM2.5 pollution ↑ Rooftop vegetation (2) ↓ Ambient temperature (3) ↓ Energy use (1) Direct removal PM2.5 (4) Direct removal PM2.5 precursors ↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions ↓ PM2.5 pollution

PM2.5 Reduction Pathways (cont.) Note: Up arrows (↑) indicate an increase, and down arrows (↓) indicate a decrease; shaded boxes indicate pathways included in cost-benefit results ↑ Pavement albedo ↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions (1) ↓ Ambient temperature ↓ Energy use ↓ PM2.5 pollution ↑ Bioretention (2) ↓ Ambient temperature ↓ Energy use (1) Direct removal PM2.5 (3) Direct removal PM2.5 precursors ↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions ↓ PM2.5 pollution ↑ Urban trees (2) ↓ Ambient temperature (3) ↓ Energy use (1) Direct removal PM2.5 (4) Direct removal PM2.5 precursors ↓ PM2.5 precursor emissions ↓ PM2.5 pollution

Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions Results Conclusions Appendix

Key Analysis-wide Assumptions Analysis term: 40 years Analysis year 1: 2017 Discount rate: 3% (real) Dollar year: 2015 (adjusted using the historical consumer price index for all national urban consumers)

Key Solution-Specific Assumptions Cool Roofs Green Roofs Albedo: 0.65 (low slope) and 0.25 (steep slope) Shifting to 0.75 (low slope) and 0.40 (steep slope) post-2025 Life: 20 years Growing media depth: 4.5 inches Leaf area index: 2 Life: 40 years Installed on low slope roofs only

Key Solution-Specific Assumptions (cont.) Solar PV Bioretention PV purchase breakdown: 25% direct purchase vs. 75% PPA PPA term/system life: 20 years PPA price: 5% below utility electricity price Annual degradation: 0.5% PV Efficiency: 18% Life: 25 years Life: 40 years Rainwater Harvesting

Key Solution-Specific Assumptions (cont.) Reflective Pavements Permeable Pavements Albedo: 0.30 (road), 0.30 (parking lot), 0.35 (sidewalk) Shifting to 0.35 (road), 0.40 (parking lot), 0.45 (sidewalk) Life Road: 6-10 years Parking lot: 15 years Sidewalk: 40 years Life: Parking lot: 25-40 years (depending on technology) Sidewalk: 40 years Life: 30 years Urban Trees

Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions Results Conclusions Appendix

Surface Coverage By End of 40-yr Analysis Surface solution Percent coverage by end of 40-year analysis Cool roofs 50% of roofs (10% multifamily low slope cool roofs and 20% of commercial low slope cool roofs have bioretention; 5% multifamily low slope cool roofs and 10% of commercial low slope cool roofs have rainwater harvesting) Green roofs 10% of roofs Solar PV 50% of viable (=530 MW) Reflective pavements 50% of pavements Permeable pavements 5% parking lots and 10% sidewalks (4% of pavements) Urban trees Increase tree canopy by 10% absolute

Present Value of City-wide Scenario Costs and Benefits (through 2056) SOLUTION Cool Roofs Cool Roofs + Bioretention Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting Green Roofs PV (Direct Purchase) PV (PPA) Reflective Pavements Permeable Pavements Urban Trees TOTAL COSTS $32,318,000 $23,351,000 $16,752,000 $282,957,000 $242,487,000 $499,000 $43,802,000 $13,538,000 $234,846,000 $890,546,000 First cost $23,827,000 $18,169,000 $10,312,000 $194,607,000 $163,019,000 -- $23,537,000 $13,936,000 $136,475,000 $583,879,000 Operations and maintenance $0 $2,289,000 $6,026,000 $88,214,000 $25,112,000 $7,263,000 $77,622,000 $206,523,000 Additional replacements $8,491,000 $2,425,000 $140,000 $54,192,000 $20,265,000 -$7,661,000 $20,750,000 $98,600,000 Employment training $469,000 $276,000 $138,000 $167,000 $1,546,000 BENEFITS $236,960,000 $80,048,000 $65,751,000 $563,636,000 $443,693,000 $450,611,000 $112,377,000 $192,130,000 $797,038,000 $2,942,239,000 Energy $30,658,000 $5,674,000 $2,802,000 $22,103,000 $238,953,000 $33,202,000 $5,014,000 $8,352,000 $346,754,000 Financial incentives $65,604,000 Stormwater $32,415,000 $41,482,000 $478,786,000 $191,437,000 $694,775,000 $1,438,893,000 Health $114,544,000 $14,282,000 $6,669,000 $38,978,000 $65,824,000 $197,472,000 $29,734,000 $56,631,000 $524,131,000 Climate change $91,758,000 $23,349,000 $11,573,000 $11,159,000 $50,341,000 $151,022,000 $77,630,000 $37,282,000 $454,110,000 Reduced portable water use $15,868,000 Reduced salt use $693,000 Employment $4,330,000 $3,227,000 $12,611,000 $22,973,000 $68,917,000 $112,056,000 NPV $204,642,000 $56,697,000 $49,000,000 $280,679,000 $201,206,000 $450,113,000 $68,575,000 $178,592,000 $562,193,000 $2,051,693,000

Other Metrics (through 2056): Benefit-to-Cost Ratio, Employment, Energy and GHG Emissions SOLUTION Cool Roofs Cool Roofs + Bioretention Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting Green Roofs PV (Direct Purchase) PV (PPA) Reflective Pavements Permeable Pavements Urban Trees Benefit-to-Cost Ratio 7.33 3.43 3.93 1.99 1.83 Very high 2.57 14.19 3.39 SOLUTION Cool Roofs Cool Roofs + Bioretention Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting Green Roofs PV (Direct Purchase) PV (PPA) Reflective Pavements Permeable Pavements Urban Trees TOTAL Job-years created -- 86 64 250 501 1,503 4,831 Job-years creater per $1,000,000 spent 3.7 3.8 0.9 2.1 N/A 5.4 SOLUTION Cool Roofs Cool Roofs + Bioretention Cool Roofs + Rainwater Harvesting Green Roofs PV (Direct Purchase) PV (PPA) Reflective Pavements Permeable Pavements Urban Trees TOTAL ENERGY IMPACT   Electricity saved or generated (GWh) 1,027 260 128 398 4,154 12,463 210 324 18,964 Natural gas saved (MDth) -3,451 -380 -188 394 -228 -710 -4,564 GHG EMISSIONS IMPACT (KT CO2) -5 25 12 92 747 2,241 22 107 3,241 Direct energy-related impact (KT CO2) -42 20 10 79 21 88 Indirect energy-related impact (KT CO2) 37 5 2 13 86 165 Energy generation-related impact (KT CO2) 2,988

Summertime Tourism Combination of higher average heat, greater frequency of extreme heat, and more air pollution will make the District less attractive for tourists in the summer Smart surface solutions can help avoid potential tourism losses Net present value of this avoided loss over the 40-year analysis period would be $3.1 billion in visitor spending and $335 million in District tax revenue. Image Source: http://data.globalchange.gov/generic/20392d37-44b3-4c2f-8c16-b1423b45f164

Table of Contents Background Solutions and Benefits Key Assumptions Results Conclusions Appendix

Conclusions Broad deployment of smart surfaces solutions would cost-effectively reduce health and energy costs city-wide while increasing employment, resilience, and livability NPV of city-wide adoption of these solutions is $2.05 billion The payback times for these solutions vary a great deal Cool roofs offer very fast payback, while several other solutions offer the largest net benefit We expect additional non-quantified benefits to the District and its residents are large and outweigh non-quantified costs

Conclusions (cont.) Downwind cooling in the District is likely to be large, including cooling impact in eastern and northeastern parts of the city Summer winds in the District often blow from the south or southwest  urban cooling in Arlington and Alexandria could lead to significant cooling in the District District-wide smart surface deployment could prevent an approximately $3.1 billion reduction in tourism spending in the District over 40 years, including $335 million in District tax revenue Combined NPV of over $5 billion Downwind cooling and tourism show that smart surfaces could have an even larger benefit in the District than estimated in the report  need for coordinated adoption of smart surfaces in the broader region.

Sustainable DC Plan Goals Sustainable DC Plan action category Smart surface solutions impacts Jobs & Economy Create 2,403 well-paying direct green jobs to District residents over 40 years Provide an entry point into the emerging green workforce Health & Wellness Improve air quality and public health (18% of benefits are from health), creating a healthier environment for District residents and visitors Equity & Diversity Improve livability, particularly in low income areas that tend have less green cover and have less efficient buildings Climate & Environment By full implementation, emissions reductions equivalent to 5.5% of 2013 emissions, assuming constant emissions through the 40-year analysis Enhance resilience to climate change by reducing city temperature through UHI mitigation Built Environment Improve sustainability performance of new and existing buildings; Create higher quality of life through improved design Energy When fully implemented, reduce electricity purchases from the grid by 8.5% and slightly increase natural gas purchases by 0.9% relative to 2013 consumption Counter the rise in energy consumption due to rising temperatures from climate change Nature Expand tree canopy and other green landscapes to create a District-wide ecosystem Water Reduce stormwater runoff to protect local water bodies; Reduce potable water use