BSR Risk Management Capability Assessment Methodology FROM GAPS TO CAPS Dr. Björn Karlsson Associate Professor, University of Iceland Director General, Iceland Construction Authority

Content of presentation Background Risk Assessment versus Capability Assessment Earlier project: EUSBSR 14.3, six scenarios defined Work carried out in Task C Aim of Task C Documentation of Task C Risk Management Capability Methodology, BSR Main conclusions, Task C

Risk assessment and capability assessment

National Risk Assessment (NRA) All EU countries must hand in NRA A comparative review of disaster risks in society (example: Norway) All-hazards approach Based on best available knowledge and expert`s judgements Transparent process, public document

Norwegian National Risk Assessment Matrix Influenza Pandemic Extreme Weather (Storm) Offshore Accident Terrorist Attack Nuclear Accident TransportAccident Industrial Accident Accident at Sea Limited Military Assault Cyber Attack Space Weather Forest Fire Rock Slide Inland Flooding Volcano Eruption Energy Shortage Consequence Likelihood FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Earlier Project, EUSBSR 14.3 Six Scenarios, Baltic Sea Region The following 6 scenarios were defined and described in detail in earlier project: Extreme weather/storm Flooding Forest fire Pandemic flu Accident at Sea Nuclear accident These scenarios can all have cross-border dimensions of risks.

Content of presentation Background Risk Assessment versus Capability Assessment Earlier project: EUSBSR 14.3, six scenarios defined Work carried out in Task C Aim of Task C Documentation of Task C Risk Management Capability Methodology, BSR Main conclusions, Task C

Aim of Task C Develop a first approach methodology for risk management capability assessment for BSR To be introduced in the Baltic Sea Region and further developed in near future This will contribute to the ongoing process of method development for risk management capability assessment at EU level. FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Task C report: Table of Contents Introduction Existing capability assessment approaches in the EU/BSR Results from a questionnaire on civil protection management systems in the BSR Discussion on the EU guidelines on risk management capability A methodology for risk and capability assessment Conclusions, recommendations and lessons learned Appendix A: The BSR methodology for risk and capability assessments, a first approach Appendix B: Possible future opportunities for risk and capability assessments in the BSR Appendix C: Answers to questionnaire 1 from participants Appendix D: Evaluation of EU Guideline questions

Capability Assessment Method for BSR FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Element 1: Planning 1.1 Arrange start-up meeting 1.2 Identify need for information gathering 1.3 Examine need for consulting support Examine need for external participation 1.4 1.5 Plan for reporting Planning is essential - especially since external participation is crucial FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Element 2: The general event 2.1 Define the general event 2.2 Identify factors that can lead to the event ocurring 2.3 Discuss the likelihood of the general event 2.4 Identify overall ability to prevent and respond to the general event There are issues that are relevant only to the ”general event”. FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Element 3: Develop a scenario 3.1 Determine "worst credible scenario" 3.2 Determine the start and end time 3.3 Choose variables and variable values 3.4 Summarize the scenario narrative After describing the general event develop a scenario. FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Element 4: Influence on vital societal functions 4.2 Identify how the maintenance of essential services is affected 4.1 Identify how vital societal functions become involved in responding to the scenario Element 4 is the basis for analyzing consequences and capability FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Vital societal functions

Element 5: Assess consequences 5.1 Assess the consequences for society's protection values 5.2 Conduct a sensitivity analysis 5.3 Conduct an uncertainty analysis How will protection values be affected? 1.Human life and health 2.Society´s functionality 3.Economy and the environment 4.Democracy, rule of law and human rights 5.National sovereignty FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Element 6: Assess vulnerabilities and lack of capability 6.1 Assess whether the goals can be reached and the protection values and functions can be maintained 6.2 Assess capability to prevent 6.3 Assess vulnerabilities 6.4 Assess capability to respond 6.5 Assess which vulnerabilities need to be reduced and which capabilities need to be developed Time to wrap up! Everything done so far was aimed at forming the basis for this element! FROM GAPS TO CAPS

FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Capability Assessment Method for BSR FROM GAPS TO CAPS

Content of presentation Background Risk Assessment versus Capability Assessment Earlier project: EUSBSR 14.3, six scenarios defined Work carried out in Task C Aim of Task C Documentation of Task C Risk Management Capability Methodology, BSR Main conclusions, 1-6

Main conclusions 1-2 The existing capability assessment approaches in the EU/BSR (5 Nordic countries, 3 Baltic countries, Poland, Germany, UK and the Netherlands) have been investigated, discussed and reported on within the current project, resulting in a number of lessons learned by the project partners. A number of questionnaires were formulated and answered by the project partners where issues on capability assessments were further investigated. The results are documented in Appendix C (the state of risk and capability assessments in the BSR) and Appendix D (Evaluation of the EU guidelines). In this light, cross-border issues could be discussed and opportunities for improvements investigated and documented (see Chapters 3 and 4).

Main conclusions 3-4 Through several Seminars and Workshops the project group found that the Swedish approach to risk and capability assessments was most suitable for adoption and further development as a harmonized methodology for the Baltic Sea Region. Based on this, a methodology for scenario analysis, risk and capability assessment was documented and described (see Chapter 5 and Appendix A). The method was tested, using the Extreme weather/storm scenario from the 14.3 project in a series of Workshops held at a project meeting in Hamburg in June 2016. All project partners agree that this method should be introduced and developed further within the BSR.

Main conclusion 5-6 Work was carried out on possible future developments, opportunities and challenges for risk and capability assessments in the BSR (Appendix B). The results presented will provide a solid base for future work aimed at harmonizing risk- and capability assessment work within the BSR. A major achievement is the acceptance and promotion of a new proposed methodology for risk and capability assessments in the BSR, which is fully in line with the objective of “strengthening capacity to respond and to recover from major emergencies and accidents: better risk assessment and crisis management“ in Policy Area Secure in the EUSBSR. All project partners agree that this methodology should be introduced within the partner countries and should serve as a basis for further development work in the field.

THANK YOU! FROM GAPS TO CAPS