QUALITATIVE RISK ASSESSMET CENTER FOR COMPUTATIONAL EPIDEMIOLOGY BIOINFORMATICS AND RISK ASSESSMENT TUSKEGEE UNIVERSITY

Contents What is Risk Analysis? Concept of Regionalization 11 Risk Factors Conclusion

What is Risk Analysis ? A detailed analysis or examination, performed to understand the nature of unwanted, negative consequences or hazards to human life, health, property, or the environment. Risk Analysis Association

Risk Analysis Components Assessment Risk Management Risk Communication Qualitative Quantitative

Risk Assessment Qualitative risk assessment: The magnitude of the consequences is expressed in qualitative terms. Quantitative risk assessment: Sets parameters and calculates the outputs of the risk assessment numerically.

The Concept of Regionalization An individual country, countries, regions or zones within a country can be considered, for purposes of trade. It has enhanced world trade. Minimizes a lot of trade barriers, which are political in nature most of the time.

1- Epidemiological methods for data collection and analysis: Epidemiological Problem-Oriented Approach (EPOA). 2- Qualitative Risk Assessment Methodology: The guidelines for qualitative risk assessment required by the USDA/APHIS

The Epidemiological Problem Oriented Approach Problem Identification (Descriptive) Triad HOST ENVIRONMENT AGENT THERAPEUTICS Health maintenance & promotion PREVENTION CONTROL Management Triad Diagnostic Procedure Linkage

Six essential factors for the transmission of an infectious agent Source/reservoir Mode of escape from source Mode of transmission Mode of entry into host Susceptible host

Qualitative Risk Assessment Guidelines According to USDA guidelines there are 11 risk factors to be considered for qualitative risk assessments. This is stated in the Regionalization Final Rule (62CFR 56000-56026, Docket No. 94-106-9. Importation of Animals and Animal Products)

Risk Factor 1. The authority, organization, and infrastructure of the veterinary services in the region

The type and extent of the disease surveillance in the region Risk Factor 2. The type and extent of the disease surveillance in the region Passive surveillance Targeted active surveillance and monitoring

Diagnostic laboratory capabilities Risk Factor 3. Diagnostic laboratory capabilities provincial and federal laboratories reference laboratory for the histopathological diagnosis

Risk Factor 4. Disease status: if the disease exists in the region, at what prevalence?

Risk Factor 5. The extent of an active disease control program (emergency response)

Risk Factor 6. The vaccination status of the region; When was the last vaccination? What is the extent of vaccination if it is currently used, What vaccine is being used?

Risk Factor 7. Disease status of the adjacent regions

Risk Factor 8. The degree to which the region is separated from the other higher risk regions

The extent of control over the movement of animals and animal products Risk Factor 9. The extent of control over the movement of animals and animal products Quarantine at points of entry. Inspection offices at the borders, in the field and at slaughter houses. Each animal must have accompanying documents showing it’s origin and health status. (Traceback)

Risk Factor 10. Livestock demographics and marketing practices in the region

Risk Factor 11. Policies and infrastructures for animal disease control in the region

Based on all of the 11 risk factors the region under consideration can be characterized to pause a negligible, very low, low, medium or high risk in qualitative terms.

HOWEVER, The final decision to permit imports from a region will not be based solely on the characterization or status of the region but rather on a quantitative risk assessment addressing the risks of the specific commodity proposed for export from the region.