Monitoring and evaluating the National Adaptation Programme Infrastructure theme: Design and location of new infrastructure Resilience of infrastructure services Infrastructure interdependencies Last updated: 20 June 2017

Introduction This slidepack: Serves as a technical annex to Chapter 5: Infrastructure in the ASC’s second statutory report to Parliament on the National Adaptation Programme, available at www.theccc.org.uk/publications Provides the latest trend information on indicators of exposure, vulnerability, action and realised impacts that informed the ASC’s assessment. Will be updated periodically as new data becomes available. Highlights indicators that would be useful but where the necessary datasets have not yet been identified. Follows the structure of the infrastructure chapter in the ASC’s progress report, which is based on the ‘adaptation priorities’ the ASC identified for infrastructure. This annex sets out the underlying data by adaptation priority.

Infrastructure adaptation priorities Design and location of new infrastructure Resilience of infrastructure services Energy Public water supply Ports and airports Road and rail Digital and ICT Infrastructure interdependencies

1. Indicators for design and location of new infrastructure Measure Trend Implication Change in RAG score since 2015? Number of NSIP applications a)approved contrary to EA objection b) not carrying out a satisfactory FRA c) not satisfactorily applying the sequential test. No granted project from the list of register of applications was approved with outstanding objections from the EA. Of the 48 approved, 45 contained details of a Flood Risk Assessment (FRA), majority of which the EA was satisfied with the method, scope and findings. N.A. Number of NSIPs approved with EA conditions Additional EA requirements which specifically on flood risk were identified in 12 of the 48 approved applications. The requirements from the EA vary considerably. N.A

NSIP applications – progress Number of NSIP applications a)approved contrary to EA objection b) not carrying out a satisfactory FRA c) not satisfactorily applying the sequential test. No granted project from the list of register of applications was approved with outstanding objections from the EA. Of the 48 approved, 45 contained details of a Flood Risk Assessment (FRA), majority of which the EA was satisfied with the method, scope and findings. As of January 2017 there were 75 projects listed on the ‘register of applications’ going back to August 2010. Of these 48 were in England and have been granted. ADAS reviewed the Examining Authority’s Recommendation Reports of these. No granted project was approved with outstanding objections from the EA. 45 of 48 contained an FRA, majority of which the EA was satisfied with the method, scope and findings. The sequential test was provided in 33 of 45 applications. Details of exception tests were provided in 19 of the 45 applications. In certain cases, suitable information was not available in the Examining Authority’s Recommendation report. Source: ADAS (2017) for the ASC. Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England. Notes: The Sequential test ensures that a sequential approach is followed to steer the location of a new development to areas with the lowest probability of flooding. A planning authority should demonstrate, through evidence, that it has considered a range of options in the site allocation process, using the Strategic Flood risk Assessment to apply the sequential test. If the sequential test demonstrates that there is no reasonably alternative site for a project in Flood Zones 1 or 2, a Project can be located in flood zone 3 subject to an Exception Test.

NSIP applications with EA conditions - progress Number of NSIPs approved with EA conditions. Additional EA requirements which specifically on flood risk were identified in 12 of the 48 approved applications. The requirements from the EA vary considerably [examples from spreadsheet when we have it]. A consent by a Minister for a NSIP will take the form of a Development Consent Order 9DCO) which includes a range of other separate consents. The EA determine any conditions to attach to the DCO – however most EA consents are not part of the DCO and are decide separately. Additional requirements which specifically on flood risk were identified in 12 of the 48 granted applications. The EA requirements vary considerably. Source: ADAS (2017) for the ASC. Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England.

2. Indicators for energy generation, transmission and distribution Measure Trend Implication Change in RAG score since 2015? Number of major electricity substations located in areas at high river/coastal flooding with site-level protection measures implemented and number of customers at reduced risk – previously no. of customers reliant on major electricity substations in areas of very high/high flood risk… ↓ Likely to mean less chance of electricity supply disruptions due to flooding of major substations. N.A. Amount of actual and planned investment in resilience measures by electricity transmission and distribution companies ↑ Planned investment is continuing since we reviewed the programme in 2014. Since 2010 £73million has been invested with a further £100 million planned to 2023. IN6. Total abstraction of water (surface, groundwater, estuarine and sea) for energy ↔ The overall trend in abstraction for electricity supply from 2000-2015 shows a decreasing trend, however abstraction rose in 2015. Number of customer minutes lost due to severe weather Unable to assess trend as data was not available year on year.

Major substations and customers protected in areas at flood risk with protection measures - progress Number of customers reliant on major electricity substations in areas of very high/high flood risk ↓ Likely to mean less chance of electricity supply disruptions due to flooding of major substations. Progress with the implementation of flood protection measures generally appears to be on track with nearly 25% of customers reliant on major substations located in areas susceptible to river and coastal flooding having already benefitted from protection and most of the remainder (62%) further on course to have measures implemented by 2020. Ofgem estimate that the percentage of GB supplied by a substation with a flood risk profile of 1-in-100 year has reduced from 59% in 2010 to 41% in 2015 and are anticipated to reduce further to 37% by 2020 (Ofgem, 2016). Source: ASC (2014) Managing climate risks to well-being and the economy: ASC progress report 2014, using data from the Distribution Network Operators’ submissions to Ofgem Notes: The number of customers benefitting from planned flood mitigation measures delivered by 2020 includes measures taken for those substations currently located in areas of medium likelihood, but that are projected to be in areas of high likelihood by the 2020s.

Actual and planned investment - action Amount of actual and planned investment in resilience measures by electricity transmission and distribution companies. ↑ Planned investment is continuing since we reviewed the programme in 2014. Since 2010 £73 million has been invested with a further £100 million planned to 2023. A total investment of £173 million in substation flood protection and resilience measures was agreed by the regulator between 2010 and 2023 (ENA, 2015). By 2015 £73m has been spent. National Grid has also allocated £153 million to network resilience, flooding and physical security. Investment has been initially targeted towards assets at highest risk. Protection for all at-risk sites is planned by 2021. Approximately £3 million has been invested in interim mobile flood defence and supporting equipment. Source: ENA (2015) Climate change adaptation reporting power second round. National Grid (2016) Second round adaptation response: National Grid Electricity Transmission UK.

Total abstraction of water - progress Total abstraction of water (surface, groundwater, estuarine and sea) for energy ↓ The overall trend in abstraction for electricity supply from 2000-2015 shows a decreasing trend. The overall trend in abstraction for electricity supply from 2000-2015 shows a decreasing trend. Over the period investigated, abstraction rose to a high of 3,499M m3 in 2001, before falling to 1,085M m3 in 2006 and 2007 before returning to 2, 478M m3 in 2015. Owing to a lack of a detailed breakdown by use category (e.g. hydroelectric) for all years the drivers behind these fluctuations cannot be accurately identified. Source: DEFRA ENV15 – Water abstraction tables (last updated February 2017). See: ADAS (2017) for the ASC. Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England.

3. Indicators for public water supply Measure Trend Implication Change in RAG score since 2015? Amount of investment in resilience measures by water companies ↔ Overall trend in investment is increasing, although there was less spent in 2014/15 than 2013/14. N.A. Leakage (Ml per year) ↓ Water companies have made progress in reducing leaks, and leakage is down about a third from its 1994-5 high.

Actual and planned investment - action The dataset for the seven year period (2008-09 to 2014-15) shows that a total of £371.6 million has been invested in resilience, ranging from between £35.7 million in 2008-09 to £88.4 million in 2013-14. The total amount invested by each water company in the seven year period varies considerably, from £0 up to £166.1 million. Severn Trent, Anglian and Wessex account for 77% of all spend on resilience, with total spend from these companies (in the time series) of £166.1 million, 60.2 million and 59.3 million respectively. Thames, Yorkshire and Bristol accounted for a further 18% combined of total investment on resilience. Amount of actual and planned investment in resilience measures by water companies ↔ Overall trend in investment is increasing, although there was less spent in 2014/15 than 2013/14. Source: Ofwat (2017), see ADAS (2017) for the ASC. Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England.

Leakage (MI per year) - progress Leakage is affected by weather, especially in the cols winters, and so may rise or fall from one year to the next. The overall trend in leakage in England and Wales over the past 11 years has been downward. The reduction has been driven by the leakage reduction targets set by OFWAT, for each water company. Leakage is down about a third from its 1994/95 high, to 3,084 megalitres per day. However, there has only been a small fall in leakage (0.1% per year on average) since 2012/13 compared to a 10% fall in 2011/12. Leakage (Ml per year) ↓ Water companies have made progress in reducing leaks, and leakage is down about a third from its 1994-5 high. Source: Ofwat (2017), see ADAS (2017) for the ASC. Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England.

4. Indicators for road and rail Measure Trend Implication Change in RAG score since 2015? Amount of actual and planned investment in road network maintenance ↑ In 2015/16, £4.5 billion was spent on the maintenance of roads in England. Of this, £1 billion was spent on trunk motorways and ‘A’ roads and £3.6 billion on LA managed roads. In total between 2015 and 2021 the Government confirmed it would be providing £6 billion to help improve local roads. N.A Annual length of delays to a) rail d) strategic road network caused by severe weather ↔ Incidents and delay times fluctuate each year ranging from ~ 5,000 in 2008/9 to 150,000 in 2012/13. However, the time series is too short to determine if the number of incidents has been increasing or decreasing over time due to e.g. climate change. Condition of roads in England Condition of some major roads has improved (Motorways, Principal A Roads) since 2007/08. No significant change in some other road types (Trunk A Roads, Non-Principal B + C Roads). Non-principal roads improving. Unclassified roads deteriorated but starting to improve. Orange to green. Most roads type conditions are improving.

Actual and planned investment road maintenance - action Amount of actual and planned investment in road network maintenance In 2015/16, £4.5 billion was spent on the maintenance of roads in England. Of this, £1 billion was spent on trunk motorways and ‘A’ roads and £3.6 billion on LA managed roads. In total between 2015 and 2021 the Government confirmed it would be providing £6 billion to help improve local roads. In the Autumn Statement 2014 the government confirmed it would be providing £6 billion between 2015 and 2021 to help improve local roads. The first £75 million from the new competitive Challenge Fund grant was subsequently made available in 2015/16. An additional £179 million was later granted to those authorities with roads most damaged by storms Desmond and Eva. In the Autumn Statement 2016 Chancellor allocated an extra £150 million to improve transport flood resilience. Source: DfT (2017) Road conditions in England: 2016, taken from DCLG and Highways England Note: Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Annual number and length of delays - progress The prominent cause of these incidents varies year to year, with for example delays in 2012/13 and 2013/14 largely dominated by flooding, whilst delays in 2008/9 and 2010/11 were largely dominated by snow and ice, and delays in 2007/8 and 2011/12 largely dominated by strong winds. Relative to the time series available, the years of 2012 - 2014 exhibited particularly high number of incidents, with more than double the number of closures to that of each year between 2007 and 2011. Since then there have been less delays. However, the time series is too short to determine if the number of incidents has been increasing or decreasing over time due to e.g. climate change. Annual length of delays to strategic road network caused by severe weather ↔ Incidents and delay times fluctuate each year ranging from ~ 5,000 minutes in 2009/10 to 150,000 in 2012/13. However, the time series is too short to determine if the number of incidents has been increasing or decreasing over time due to e.g. climate change. Source: Highways England (2017), see ADAS (2017) for the ASC. Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England.

Annual number and length of delays - progress Annual length of delays to rail network caused by severe weather ↔ Incidents and delay times fluctuate each year ranging from ~ 500,000 minutes in 2011/12 to 2,400,00 in 2013/14. However, the time series is too short to determine if the number of incidents has been increasing or decreasing over time due to e.g. climate change. The prominent weather type that caused delays varies from year to year. In 2008- 2020 delays were prominently caused by snow. In 2007/8 and 2021/13 delays were prominently caused by flooding and in 2013/14 by wind. Relative to the time series available, 2013/2014 a exhibited particularly high number of incidents. Since then delays have been less compared to majority of other years. However, the time series is too short to determine if the number of incidents has been increasing or decreasing over time due to e.g. climate change. Source: Network Rail (20170, and ADAS (2017) for the ASC. Research to provide updated indicators of climate change risk and adaptation action in England.

Condition of roads in England - progress The chart shows the change in the percentage of the different road networks in England that should be considered for maintenance for each year compared to 2007/08 - the earliest year in the data table. Conditions since 2013/14 have not changed for trunk motorways. Trunk ‘A’ roads have improved in the past two years. The trunk ‘A’ road figure was 4 per cent in 2015/16, lower than 5 percent in 2007/08. The trunk motorway figure was 3 per cent, 3 percentage points lower than the 6 per cent that should have been considered for maintenance in 2007/08. Principal A roads have improved with 3 per cent considered for maintenance in 2015/16 compared to 5 per cent in 2007/8. Non-principal B and C roads are only continuing to improve since a 201-2012 high. Now 6 per cent are considered for maintenance. Data collected via different methods showed that 17 per cent of the unclassified road network should have been considered for maintenance in 2015/16, 2 percentage points higher than in 2007/08 but one per cent lower than 2014/15. Condition of roads in England ↑ Condition of some major roads has improved (Motorways, Principal A Roads) since 2007/08. No significant change in some other road types (Trunk A Roads, Non-Principal B + C Roads). Non-principal roads improving. Unclassified roads deteriorated but starting to improve. Source: DfT (2017) Road Conditions in England 2016.

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