Towards Thailand’s National Foresight Program on Biotechnology (a small step for Thailand…) Dr. Nares Damrongchai Policy Researcher National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology

Why there is the need for biotechnology foresight? Has been the country’s strategic technology for a long time. It is thought to be suitable for Thailand. Rapidly growing technology, especially with the enter into global post-genomic era. Lots of opportunities and risks, many uncertainties. Has potentially high socioeconomic impact. Thailand needs a national policy to manage its limited resources to meet its goal.

(lots of uncertainties) What is the goal? Biggest Goal (lots of uncertainties) To reach ‘bioeconomy’ stage within the year 2020 More than 50% of the national income are from biotechnology-related products or services. Clear national policy on biotechnology within the year 2005 Lay strategy on post-genomics and gene technology research in 2003. Big Goal (take time to achieve) Smaller Goal (faster to achieve?)

How to reach the goal? If only we can see the future opportunities, risks, and implications of the application of gene technology (from post-genomics research). Foresight emerges as a tool: draw on experiences of other existing foresight projects, especially national foresights e.g. Japan and Korea Build capacity in technology foresight.

How to build capacity in foresight. Advocacy of concept and methodology to win support from decision-making level, management level, and all other stakeholders. Set up a pilot national foresight program under BIOTEC’s Biotechnology Policy Study Program and APEC Technology Foresight Center. Seek international cooperation. (Japan’s Technology Foresight Center)

Clarification and Refinement of the Issue Biotechnology in Thailand Genomics & Post-genomics Gene&DNA Cell Protein Organism Ecosystem from research to market Industrial Market Agriculture Medicine Industry Environment Consumer’s Market competitiveness

The Core Issue What can be the implications, including: possible products possible services other possible opportunities possible risks of post-genomics research for Thailand in the year 2010?

Executive Board (BIOTEC and TRF) Technical Advisory Committee Why post-genomics? Supportive structure of the Thailand Post-Genomics Program (tentative) International Advisory Board Advisory Board/ Steering Committee Executive Board (BIOTEC and TRF) Program Manager Technical Advisory Committee Medical Rice Shrimp

Development of strategy and plan for implementation Series of Activities 2 3 1 4 Development of plan Design of detailed management plan Selection of tools simulation 5 National Post-genomics Foresight 2010 (implemented 2002-2003) 6 Development of strategy and plan for implementation Industrial analysis Economic assessment Market intelligence National Post-genomics Research Strategy (completed 2003) 7 Biodiversity Cellular/tissue engineering Brain/neuro science National Research Policy on Biotech (partially by 2004) 8 Technology transfer Business development Common intrastructure HRD Legal measures Trade policy National Policy on Biotech (partially by 2005) 9

Who are the users? Primary users Secondary users Tertiary users People who really must know what it mean Primary users researchers research manager technology manager Secondary users policy makers administrators regulators producers, manufacturers People who should know what it mean (to some extent) People who have no idea what it all mean Tertiary users consumers the general public

Participants Thai/foreign researchers in Thailand Thai researchers overseas Foreign researchers overseas Entrepreneurs Other stakeholders

Experience with Foresight Tools Delphi used in Thailand Agricultural Foresight (1998-2000) scenario planning (2000) experts think of scenario of Thailand in 2010 free-form future analysis (2001) researchers think of their ‘champion product’ in 2010 group expert opinion (2001) a mixture of experts in many fields to think of the shape of biotechnology in 2020

Expected achievements Program completed by 2003 Formulation of some policy recommendations Continuation into future foresight programs