Donato Kiniger Passigli Crisis risk management Anticipating Change, Counteracting Fragility Donato Kiniger Passigli Trento, 6 April 2017  

Crisis Risk Management – Strategies and Opportunities Risk Reduction (Prevention/Mitigation/Preparedness( incl. EW) Risk Transfer Residual Risk (Response and Recovery) Stagnant Hum./Dev. Funding Invest in capacities – Strengthening governance – Strengthened resilience People-centered approach Community level – Local sources of resilience

Conceptual linkages – a forward looking script Prevention – to avoid consequences of hazards Preventing hazards Preventing exposure (reducing vulnerability) Resilience – capacity to withstand crisis impact Absorb, react, rebounce of individuals and communities Preparedness – making early plans and preparing response Integral component of crisis management Strategies to strengthen resilience

Conceptual linkages – a forward looking script Prevention – to avoid consequences of hazards Preventing hazards Preventing exposure (reducing vulnerability) Resilience – capacity to withstand crisis impact Absorb, react, rebounce of individuals and communities Preparedness – making early plans and preparing response Integral component of crisis management Strategies to strengthen resilience

Global threats and challenges World in a turmoil – overwhelming human consequences, high toll of disasters/conflicts Complexities, risks and vulnerabilities New threats : Climate change (environmental degradation), erosion of trust in governance + multilateralism + social + cultural disruption (polarisation, populism), rapid urbanization (fragile settings), rising migration + displacement, technological advances (genetical engineering & artificial intelligence), future of work » Interconnected reality

Fragility factors

Humanitarian/development/peace nexus Shared responsibility (beyond state level) Tasks : Preventing and resolving conflicts and crisis Building resilience and sustainable peace One single agenda – peace building and recovery Long term processes – mix of responses, no-linear The confluence of global challenges such as climate change, financial crises, poverty and rising inequality transcend traditional understanding of what is “humanitarian”. “Humanitarian action today means to think in the short, medium and longer term” DKP : ILO-IFRC Partnership Incubator Workshop, Geneva 24 November 2015

Anticipatory moves in hum./Dev. Realm Risk and resilience – 2 sides of the same coin Main policies: Integrate resilience in disaster risk reduction Improve coherence between development and humanitarian responses in fragile and conflict-affected situations Basic humanitarian principles to be observed

Move/shift to prevention Objective: fragile societies to become more resilient and self-sustainable From reaction to anticipation Questions: What to prevent ? (conflicts/violence/disasters) How to do prevention? How to generate a cultural prevention

Common goal of sustainable peace and sustainable development Reduce the scale and costs of humanitarian interventions Consider peace promotion and development go hand-in-hand, invest in both Promote a culture of prevention (cultural paradigm shift: better education, inter-communal dialogue) Make development interventions risk informed (simulations? and not risk insensitive) Integrate preparedness and national/local capacity development mechanisms Better preparedness (associated with decent work, income opportunities and strengthen governance) Sensitivity to local context Greater integration, coherence, multi-layered, multi-level prevention » The 2030 Agenda for sustainable development cannot be achieved without peace and security

Proposed Recommendation Employment and decent work for peace and resilience: Revision of the Employment (Transition from War to Peace) Recommendation, 1944 (No.71) Preamble I. Objectives and scope II. Guiding principles Strategic approaches IV. Employment generation V. Rights, equality and non-discrimination VI. Education, vocational training and guidance VII. Social protection VIII. Labour law, labour administration and labour market information XI. Social dialogue and role of employers’ and workers’ organizations Refugees and returnees XI. Prevention, mitigation and preparedness International cooperation Other provisions Annex

Egypt Weak Democratic Governance External / Internal Armed Groups Currency fluctuations Ineffective labour market regulation Dependence on remittances from diaspora Sudden loss of productive assets Reduction of social protection and safety nets Current account deficits Elite capture and corruption Reduction of trade opportunities Security threats for businesses and workers Lack of freedom of association Limited social dialogue opportunities Infrastructure damages Unenforced labour standards Socio-Political Crisis Disruption of value chains High levels of un- and under employment Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills Erosion of social capital Destruction of enterprises and workplaces Depletion of private and public capital stock Land grabbing Socio-Economic Inequalities and Marginalization Household debt Forced labour (Wage) discrimination Child Labour Egypt External / Internal Armed Groups Catastrophic Events Health Epidemic Global Trade / Financial Crisis Loss of investor and consumer confidence Closure o business Poverty Loss of skilled labour Exploitation of workers Half to long term development strategies Weak foreign investment Lost productivity and worker absenteeism Unreliable labour market data Migratory Flows / Population Movements - Sudden influx of skilled labour

Lebanon External / Internal Armed Groups Catastrophic Events Health Epidemic Global Trade / Financial Crisis Loss of investor and confidence Current account deficits Dependence on remittances from diaspora Weak Foreign investment Constrained access to markets Sudden loss of productive assets Reduction of trade opportunities Weak Democratic Governance Unenforced labour standards Ineffective labour market regulation Unreliable labour market data Elite capture and corruption Socio-Political Crisis Loss of skilled labour Limited social dialogue opportunities Half to long-term development strategies Socio-Economic Inequalities and Marginalization Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills High levels of un- and under employment Child labour Poverty Erosion of social capital (Wage) discrimination Closure of business Migratory Flows / Population Movements Sudden inflow of unskilled labour Household debt Infrastructure damages

Yemen External / Internal Armed Groups Catastrophic Events Halt to long-term development strategies Land grabbing Destruction of enterprises and workplaces Security threats for businesses and workers Catastrophic Events Constrained access to markets Infrastructure damages Erosion of social capital Sudden loss of productive assets Depletion of private and public capital stock Health Epidemic Reduction of social protection and safety nets Global Trade / Financial Crisis Reduced aggregate demand Closure of businesses Higher operating costs Disruption of value chains Weak foreign investment Dependence on remittances from diaspora Current account deficits Reduction of trade opportunities Weak Democratic Governance Ineffective labour market regulation Unenforced labour standards Unreliable labour market data Limited social dialogue opportunities Lack of freedom of association Loss of investor and consumer confidence Socio-Political Crisis Household debt Elite capture and corruption Poverty Child labour High level of un- and under employment Socio-Economic Inequalities and Marginalization (Wage) discrimination Forced displacement of workers Forced labour Exploitation of workers Unequal opportunities to acquire education and skills Migratory Flows / Population Movements Sudden influx of unskilled labour Lost productivity and worker absenteeism Loss of skilled labour