Global Warming Basics & Local Climate Change Impacts Alan Journet & Kathy Conway Southern Oregon Climate Action Now http://socan.info alan@socan.info kathy@socan.info socanhotline@gmail.com Hand out Group Sign Up sheet. Students put their names by one of the letters. Teacher – help with time checks

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2015 cf 1951-1980 1.80 1.46 1.08 0.72 ⁰F 0.36 [1 minute] When we examine global temperatures, you can see that most of the warming has happened from about 1970 to present. The questions we’re exploring today is “What’s causing this trend?” -0.36 -0.72 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif

Basics of Global Warming Transformed to Infra-red = heat. Then what? Remainder escapes into space Basics of Global Warming Some infra-red is absorbed by atmospheric gases Incoming Visible light [7 minutes for 4 slides in this series] Ask group what is happening in this slide. Call on person (letter), then color for information. Then another person to add. WARNING: Not drawn to scale

Basics of Global Warming Transformed to Infra-red = heat. Then what? Remainder escapes into space Basics of Global Warming Some infra-red is absorbed by atmospheric gases Incoming Visible light Same as last slide but with animation to make sure that they got all the points. WARNING: Not drawn to scale

Less escapes into space Surface - Lower Atmosphere Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentration If atmospheric gas density increases, more heat is retained by this ‘thermal blanket’ Ask them to identify what is happening here. Call on students as previously. Warming Surface - Lower Atmosphere

Less escapes into space Surface - Lower Atmosphere Increasing Greenhouse Gas Concentration If atmospheric gas density increases, more heat is retained by this ‘thermal blanket’ Same slide with animation Warming Surface - Lower Atmosphere

What are the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)? [2-3 minutes for this one, Main Greenhouse Gases and Main sources of GHG] Get student responses – call on students as before.

The Main Greenhouse Gases Methane 100 year GWP = 34 20 GWP = 86 Longevity ≈ decade Longevity ≈ centuries Carbon dioxide 100 year GWP = 1 CFC / HCFC 100 year GWP > 5,000 Nitrous oxide Longevity ≈ 250 years Longevity ≈ 10 Days GWP=Global Warming Potential. Represents the relative warming impact on a pound for pound basis of GHG compared to CO2 that is designated as 1. 100 year GWP = 298 Water Dihydrogen monoxide Longevity ≈ century

What are the Sources of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)? [2-3 minutes for this one, Main Greenhouse Gases and Main sources of GHG] Get student responses – call on students as before.

Main Sources of Greenhouse Gases COAL OIL / GASOLINE NATURAL GAS Students identify possible sources before showing. Point out that coal is mainly CO2, Oil/Gasoline results in CO2, but Natural gas results in Methane as well as CO2. Methane Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide

Local Climate Trends and Projections Each group will get one factor or consequence The group will discuss their information and answer the questions One person will be called upon to explain to the class what their information shows Questions? Hand out information [5 minutes for group to prepare and 7 minutes to report] Group can use the bottom of the sheet with their names for notes. Everyone needs to be prepared to share. I will call on people to provide explanations. Teacher: Help with management – stay on task, circulate and help students with their information.

Question to Answer for this group What are the temperature trends and projections?

Factor 1: Jackson County Temperature Minimum Increase of about 7.8⁰F from 2005 Increase to 2005 about 1.4⁰F from 1950 – 2005 average Increase of about 3.4⁰F from 2005 Maximum Increase of about 8.1⁰F from 2005 Increase to 2005 about 1.5⁰F from 1950 – 2005 average Increase of about 3.5⁰F from 2005 Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend 1-Black - up slightly 2-Red – up a lot 3-Blue – Up, but not as much as red 1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to the Jackson County Temperature? 2- What is the projected temperature increase if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)? 3 - What is the projected temperature increase if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)? https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nccv/viewer.asp

Question to Answer for this group What are the precipitation trends and projections?

Factor 2: Jackson County Precipitation Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend 1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to Jackson County Precipitation? 2- What is the projected precipitation trend if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)? 3 - What is the projected precipitation trend if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)? 1-Black - up and down 2-Red – up and down with a couple of higher spikes 3-Blue – up and down https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nccv/viewer.asp

Question to Answer for this group What is the snow pack trend and projection?

Factor 3: Jackson County Snowpack – as Snow Water Equivalent Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend 1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to Jackson County Snowpack? 2- What is the projected snowpack trend if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)? 3 - What is the projected snowpack trend if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)? 1-Black - up and down with slight down 2-Red – down quite a bit 3-Blue – Down, but not as much as red https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nccv/viewer.asp

Question to Answer for this group What are the consequences of the projections in soil moisture?

Consequence 1: Jackson County Soil Moisture Black = historic data; Red and Blue = Projections (Red represents continued accelerating fossil fuel use and Greenhouse Gas emissions; Blue represents some reduction in the Red emissions trend 1-Black - up and down 2-Red – Down – especially by 2100 3-Blue – Down from black, but not as much as red 1- Historically (1950 – 2005) what has happened to Jackson County Soil Moisture? 2- What is the projected soil moisture trend if we continue accelerated fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions (red line)? 3 - What is the projected soil moisture trend if we don’t accelerate fossil fuel emissions as much (blue line)? 4 – What are the likely consequences of this trend? https://www2.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nccv/viewer.asp

Question to Answer for this group What are the trends and projections in western wildfires?

Consequence 2 Western Wildfires http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Consequence 2 Western Wildfires What has happened to the number of large wildfires in the western U.S. during the last 30 years? Increased from about 140 to 250. What has happened to the length of the wildfire season in the western U.S. during the last 40 years? Increased from 5 months to more than 7 months What is the projected trend in acreage burned during the coming century? Depends on where you are, but up to 650% increase in acres per year. Southern Oregon – around 400%. What are the suggested explanations for these past and projected trends? Temperatures are rising, this results in snow pack melting earlier. Higher temperatures and less snow pack result in more and larger fires. What has happened to the number of large wildfires in the western U.S. during the last 30 years? What has happened to the length of the wildfire season in the western U.S. during the last 40 years? What is the projected trend in acreage burned during the coming century? http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

SUMMARY Global warming is driven by incoming solar radiation (visible wavelengths) This transforms to heat radiation at Earth’s surface and radiates out The outward radiating heat is trapped by greenhouse gases (GHGs) Human activity is increasing the concentration of these GHGs in the atmosphere – hence global warming Regional impacts are: Increasing temperature Variable but constant precipitations Reducing snowpack Reducing soil moisture Increased wildfire risk [2 minutes]