Western Regional Technical Projects 2011 through 2013 October 31, 2011

Regional Technical Projects Regional Haze Technical Report Biogenic Emissions Oil & Gas Emissions WestJumpAQMS FLF/3-State Project Fire’s contribution to ozone

Regional Haze Progress Reports IMPROVE Report Contains tracking metrics and calculation methodology Case studies of 2000-04 vs. 2005-09 averages Appendix G reports worst and best days by Class I area http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve/Publications/Reports/2011/2011.htm

Biogenic Emissions Inventory Project Develop consistent Western biogenics emissions inventory: Better land use and land cover information Updated algorithms and factors More highly-resolved input data Will produce new MEGAN biogenics model 2008 biogenic emissions files for air quality modeling Project start June 2011, complete January 2012 Task 1 Plant functional type fractional (PFTf) coverage data based on 30 meter Landsat satellite data, Emission factors based on recent emission measurements in the Western U.S. and elsewhere and on improved U.S. species composition data, and Leaf Area Index based on revised satellite measurements for a specific year with higher (8-day) temporal resolution. Task 2 Assess the results by comparing against MEGAN v2.04 and SMOKE-BEIS 3.14 with standard configurations and input data

Western Oil & Gas Basins in Phase III Project

WestJump Modeling Overview Model, Episode, and Domain selection Impact Assessment Domains (IAD) one-way analysis Detailed Source Apportionment Domains (DSAD) two-way analysis Meteorological Modeling Emissions Photochemical Modeling 2008 Base Case Model Performance Evaluation IAD and DSAD Source Apportionment Website and Reporting

2008 Emissions for WestJump State-reported data Regional data for key western source categories International data – Mexico, Canada, Pacific marine shipping, Asia and rest of the world Emissions Component Configuration Details Model Code SMOKE Version 2.7 http://www.smoke-model.org/index.cfm Oil and Gas Emissions WRAP Phase III plus Permian Basin update WestJumpAQMS study 2008 updates to WRAP Phase III O&G emissions. Area Source Emissions 2008 NEI Version 1.5 Western state updates, then SMOKE processing of http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/net/2008inventory.html On-Road Mobile Sources MOVES2010a County specific emissions run for representative days during the modeling episode. Point Sources 2008 hourly day-specific for CEM sources, 2008 NEI Version 1.5 for other Use 2008 day-specific hourly CEM for actual and processed CEM for Typical 2008 emissions from major stationary sources with CEMS Off-Road Mobile Sources Based on EPA NONROAD model Wind Blown Dust WRAP Wind Blown Dust WRAP WBD Model with 2008 WRF meteorology Ammonia Emissions Tentatively CMU Ammonia Model Evaluate various options including NEI, State, WRAP and CMU ammonia models and latest results from NPS ROMANS Biogenic Sources MEGAN Enhanced version of MEGAN from WRAP study http://www.wrapair2.org/pdf/WGA_Task1_TechnicalAnalysisReport_ImprovedBiogenicEmissionInventories.pdf Fires FINN placeholder and then 2008 DEASCO3 fire inventory Fire Inventory from NCAR (FINN) used as placeholder until 2008 DEASCO3 fire inventory is available: http://www.wrapair2.org/pdf/JSFP_DEASCO3_TechnicalProposal_November19_2010.pdf Temporal Adjustments Seasonal, day, hour Based on latest collected information Chemical Speciation CB6 Chemical Speciation Updated rate constants, kinetics and reactions Gridding Spatial Surrogates based on landuse  Develop new spatial surrogates using 2010 census data Growth and Controls  TBD  Future attainment year(s) to be determined Quality Assurance QA Tools in SMOKE; PAVE, VERDI plots; Summary reports  

36-km CONUS, 12-km WESTUS and 4-km IMWD processing domains for meteorological and emission inputs to Photochemical Models

Example: Four Corners 4-km IAD includes San Juan Basin (one-way analysis)

Example: Proposed Uinta-Piceance Basins 4-km DSAD domain (two-way analysis)

WestJump Timeline Phase I: Review of Model Design and 2008 Emissions and Meteorological Modeling (June through December 2011) Phase II: Model Improvements & 2008 Base Case Modeling (December 2011 through March 2012) Phase III: Source Apportionment & Future Analysis Issues (March through July 2012)

Federal Leadership Forum / 3-State Study NPS, USFS, BLM, EPA, and state air agencies (CO, UT, and WY) Support planning for the air quality impacts of energy development Ozone focus Additional rural monitoring stations WGA staff to coordinate project CIRA/CSU to construct a Data Warehouse to support future air quality modeling and other analyses Possible extension for additional Data Warehouse development work “Acceleration Phase” Adds emissions and met modeling and analysis to the project during 2011-2013.

Assessment of Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone Turns complex technical analyses of historic events into web-accessible tables, charts, and maps Describe how fires contribute to ambient ozone concentrations Emission inventory development for wildland and agricultural fires in 2002 and 2008 Photochemical grid modeling with source apportionmentto better assess fire’s contribution to ozone

Assessment of Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone Develop online tool for FLMs to access results Collaborative review and analysis by NPS and USFS air program staff Documentation and summary reports of methods and results Starts October 2011, complete March 2013