2014 Midterm Election Results and Impact Apollo Education Group Political Action Committee November 13, 2014

Senate Results and Impact

Republicans Win Solid Majority in Senate Control of the 113th Senate (2012-2014) Control of the 114th Senate (2014-2016) Democratic Republican Independent Undecided 2 2 Total Seats Democrats: 53 Republicans: 45 Independents: 2 53 45 Total Seats Democrats: 44 Republicans: 53 Independents: 2 Undecided: 2 44 53 Analysis Having won most of this year’s competitive races, Republicans secured at least 53 Senate seats on election night, flipping the Senate from blue to red Additional GOP win in Alaska is still possible If Republicans eventually expand their majority to 54 seats, they will have an easier time passing legislation in the Senate because they will need fewer Democratic defections to overcome filibusters (which require a 60 vote supermajority) Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.

GOP Dominates Competitive Races SD: Mike Rounds (R), despite seeing outside money pour in against him at the last minute after reports of a scandal during his time as governor, won an easy victory over Rick Weiland (D) and former Sen. Larry Pressler (I) GOP Dominates Competitive Races Republican Victories Democratic Victories Undecided MI: Gary Peters (D) maintained Democratic control of retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) NH: Sen. Shaheen (D) held off a national tide against Democrats, holding on to defeat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI CO: Cory Gardner (R) defeated Sen. Mark Udall easily after Udall ran a poor one-note campaign on reproductive health that voters didn’t engage with Recommendations and detected threats VA: Mark Warner (D) hung on by a hair in a surprisingly close race against Ed Gillespie (R) AK: Dan Sullivan (R) and Sen. Mark Begich (D) will need to wait for results to come in from rural areas before their race is decided, which could take days or even weeks NC: Thom Tillis (R) won a slim upset victory over Kay Hagan (D) KY: Sen. McConnell (R) handily defeated Alison Grimes (D) on his way to becoming majority leader KS: Sen. Roberts (R), after facing bad polling numbers earlier this summer, brought in a team of top-tier Republican strategists and won re-election by a wide margin over Greg Orman (I) IA: Joni Ernst (R) handily won election over gaffe-prone Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the race for Sen. Tom Harkin (D)’s seat AR: Tom Cotton (R) easily defeated Sen. Mark Pryor, helping to complete Arkansas’ transformation into a Republican stronghold LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) is an underdog in a December runoff election against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) GA: David Perdue (R) avoided a runoff, blowing out former non-profit CEO Michelle Nunn Source: National Journal Research 2014; Associated Press Election Results, 2014; Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline, October 13, 2014.

Republicans Make Gains Across the Map Senate Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections Democratic Gain Democratic Hold Republican Gain Republican Hold Independent Gain Undecided/Runoff No Election OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI May take until November 18 to count all votes AK Democrats: 44 Republicans: 53 Independents: 2 Undecided: 2 Runoff election will be held on December 6, 2014 Analysis Republicans won most of 2014’s competitive Senate races, taking seats in Colorado, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, and—unexpectedly—North Carolina Republicans also won special elections this year in Oklahoma and South Carolina Louisiana will hold a December 6, 2014 runoff election. Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.

Republicans Sweep Romney States, Win Iowa and Colorado 2012 Presidential Election Results vs. 2014 Senate Results OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC TN KY IN WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD DC GA MI Republican win Democratic win 2014 Senate Result Obama 2012 Victory Romney 2012 Victory 2012 Presidential Election Result Undecided AK HI Republicans picked up (CO, IA) or held (ME) 3 states in Democratic territory Democrats struggled to hold on to most seats, and did not pick up or hold any seats in Republican territory Source: National Journal Research with Josh Kraushaar.

Dems, Republicans Will Take Turns Playing Defense in Midterms Ahead Senate seats in play, by election year Democrats over-exposed Republicans over-exposed Democrats over-exposed Source: Cook Political Report.

House Results and Impact

Republicans Win Record Majority in House Control of the 113th House (2012-2014) Control of the 114th House (2014-2016) Democratic Republican Vacant Undecided* 17 AK Total Seats Democrats: 199 Republicans: 233 Vacancies: 3 199 233 AK Total Seats Democrats: 175 Republicans: 243 Undecided: 17 175 243 Analysis Republicans won a total of at least 243 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928 An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections * Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6 Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center, November 2014.

Republicans Make Significant Gains in House House Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections Democratic Gain Democratic Hold Republican Gain Republican Hold Undecided* AK Democrats: 175 Republicans: 243 Independents: 0 Undecided: 17 Analysis Republicans were expected to keep control of the House, but strong performances in tossup districts and a handful of wins in states that were expected to lean Democratic mean that the new GOP majority is even larger than expected * Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6 Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.

Margins of Majority Control in the House Majority GOP Majority Democrat Quick Takes After 2010, the GOP counseled state legislatures to redraw districting maps with changing demographics in mind This strategy was intended to provide the GOP with an edge in 2012 by helping to protect vulnerable seats and to add to their growing list of seats in Southern states, and was relatively effective; despite a strong Democratic year overall and the national congressional vote slightly favoring Democrats, Republicans still held on to a strong majority The strategy helped to further entrench gains in the Republican wave year of 2014 * *As of 11/5/14, 6 AM, 17 races have not been called and 2 are headed to a December runoff Source: National Journal Research, 2014; Roll Call, Nov. 8, 2012, “Redistricting Helped Limit GOP’s House Losses,” Joshua Miller; National Journal, Nov. 7, 2012, “Republicans Make Strides Towards Southern House Domination,” David Wasserman, “House GOP Won 49% of Votes, 54 Percent of Seats,” Cook Political Report, Dec. 13, 2012

Governing Impact

The 113th Congress On Track to be Least Productive since WWII 1,028 Public Laws The 84th Congress passed more laws than any other post-WWII due to unified Dem control of both chambers 280 Public Laws The 104th Congress reached a then-low due to partisan division following the 1995 government shutdown 163 Public Laws (as of September 2014) The 113th Congress passed only 72 laws in 2013; while productivity has slightly increased in 2014, this Congress is still on track to be the least productive on record Analysis By historical standards, the past two Congresses have been incredibly unproductive; they enacted just over half as many laws in the past four years (446 as of 9/8/14) as their predecessors averaged in two (637) Budget fights have exacerbated unproductivity, as the time spent on resolving impasses detracted from other priorities Even with budget struggles temporarily resolved, the number of bills enacted may remain below historic norms, as Congress now passes more legislation in omnibus form; many bills in the 84th Congress might be included in one today, for example Source: Library of Congress; “Resumé of Congressional Activity,” U.S. Senate, 2013.

The Senate’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat Senate Elections: 2014 and Beyond The Senate’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat Number of Senate seats by State Partisan Voter Index, 1994-2014 Source: Cook Political Report.

The House’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat 2014 House Elections The House’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat Number of House seats by Partisan Voting Index of district Note: “Swing” districts are defined as having an average presidential vote margin over the last two elections within five points of the national average Source: Cook Political Report.

Demographic Profiles of the 113th and 114th Congresses House Senate D R All 40 and Under 7% 9% 8% 0% 1% 10% 4% 2% Women 30% 18% 20% 34% 19% 33% 11% 22% Black 23% Latino 13% 3% 6% Analysis The share of members age 40 and under, as well as the share of women and members who identify as black or Latino all increased in the 114th Congress *Results calculated with Senate races still pending in Louisiana and Alaska, as well as 7 House races; projected winners in pending races not accounted for in this tally Source: Source: National Journal Research

Most Lawmakers In Both Chambers Have Fewer Than Six Years of Experience 12-17 years 6-11 years 0-5 years 18+ years 12-17 years 6-11 years 0-5 years 18+ years 12-17 years 6-11 years 0-5 years 18+ years 12-17 years 6-11 years 0-5 years 18+ years 12-17 years 6-11 years 0-5 years 18+ years 12-17 years Senate is done, finish House 0-5 years 6-11 years Analysis The proportion of junior and senior lawmakers is roughly even in both chambers In the House, Democrats have the smallest share of junior lawmakers (42%), while Republicans have the largest share of junior lawmakers (66%) In the Senate, Republicans have the largest share (57%) of members with 0-5 years of experience Source: National Journal Research, 2014.

Presidential Proposal Has Little Sway In Budget Process Federal Budget Process Procedural path Direction of political influence Presidential Budget House Budget Resolution Senate Budget Resolution Conference Committee Budget Enacted House vote on Conference Report Senate Vote on Conference Report Analysis Congressional, not administrative, action drives the federal budget process forward Since Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) has announced the Senate will not pass a budget resolution for FY 2015, Congress will not go through the full budget process for FY 2015, no matter what actions the House or President take Although the President has no formal role in the budget process—he does not even sign an enacted budget—the Presidential budget submission can be influential in terms of laying out an agenda and putting pressure on lawmakers who disagree with popular proposals Sources: Bill Heniff, “Congressional Budget Resolutions: Historical Information,” Congressional Research Service, February 7, 2014; Sarah Mimms “Murray: Senate Democrats will not do a budget this year,” National Journal, February 28, 2014.

But President’s Budget Can Serve a Broader Agenda Impact of Budget Process Presidential Budget Congressional Budget Process D.C. Policy Agenda National Political Landscape Analysis Although President Obama’s FY 2015 budget request will not become law, it can serve broader goals inside the beltway and on a national scale Sources: Damian Paletta, “Obama to Offer Budget Blueprint,” Wall Street Journal, March 4, 2014.

Presidential Vetoes by Congress, 1980-Present President is Likely to Veto Legislation More Often When Opposition Controls Both Chambers Presidential Vetoes by Congress, 1980-Present President’s Party Controls at Least One Chamber Opposition Controls Both Chambers Average Number of Vetoes When Opposition Controls Both Chambers: 15.8 Average Number of Vetoes When President’s Party Controls at Least One Chamber: 6.2 Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Analysis Since Ronald Reagan came into office, presidents have vetoed more than twice the number of bills during periods of opposition Congressional control than they have when at least one house of Congress is controlled by their own party Sources: Gerhard Peters, “Presidential Vetoes: Washington-Obama,” The American Presidency Project, 2014.

Process of Federal Rulemaking Federal Rulemaking Enables President to Direct the Activities of Federal Agencies Process of Federal Rulemaking Step 1 Agency realizes a rule is necessary, brought about by either a petition, a congressional order, a federal order, a Presidential directive, a lawsuit, or an accident Step 2 The rule is put up for public comment for a period of 60 days Step 3 Agency collects and reviews comments, preparing final draft of regulation Step 4 Agency submits rule to Congress and General Accounting Office, no later than 30 days after the close of public comments Step 5 The rule is published in the Federal Register; regulation enters compliance, interpretation, and review phase Agency can establish “good cause” to skip steps 2 and 3 if rule has a narrow or minor impact or if problem must be addressed imminently. Analysis Rulemaking may be a slower route to circumventing Congress than executive orders, which can be signed into law immediately However, rules are also harder to revoke by future administrations Sources: Federal Register, 2013; ICF Consulting; Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, OMB, 2013.

Key Senate and House Committee Overview

Senate HELP Committee Overview Jurisdiction Committee Members The Senate HELP (Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions) Committee deals with the wide range of issues encompassed by its acronym, including higher ed policy, occupational health and safety, and medical research and development. Major Upcoming Issues Ebola Public concern regarding the virus is pushing the committee to find out if legislative action is needed to support U.S. efforts to combat the disease both domestically and abroad FDA Innovation The committee is trying to legislate around outdated FDA restrictions on specific products and medicines, such as sunscreen, which are preventing U.S. product innovation National Labor Relations Board Appointments The committee will likely confirm nominees for current vacancies on the board before a possible Republican takeover Student Loans The committee will likely take more action on finding legislative solutions to the student loan crisis either before or after the elections Republicans (10) Ranking Member: Lamar Alexander (R-TN)* Mike Enzi (R-WY)* Richard Burr (R-NC) Johnny Isakson (R-GA) Rand Paul (R-KY) Orrin Hatch (R-UT) Pat Roberts (R-KS)* Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) Mark Kirk (R-IL) Tim Scott (R-SC)* Democrats (12) Chairman: Tom Harkin (D-IA)† Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) Patty Murray (D-WA) Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Bob Casey (D-PA) Kay Hagan (D-NC)* Al Franken (D-MN)* Michael Bennet (D-CO) Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Chris Murphy (D-CT) Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) Defeated in 2014 Midterm Election *Up for re-election in 2014 †Retiring after 2014 Sources: National Journal Research, 2014.

House Education and the Workforce Committee Overview Jurisdiction Committee Members The House Education and the Workforce Committee oversees issues relating to employer/employee relations, workplace regulations, and education policy. Major Upcoming Issues Labor Regulatory Agency Reform The committee is holding hearings on the NLRB and EEOC regarding new regulations and guidelines put out by the agencies governing the nature of wages, hours, and joint employer status The committee is also exploring options for increased independent oversight of both agencies Student Privacy The committee is studying potential legislative solutions to address concerns about data mining and student privacy Republicans (23) Democrats (17) Ranking Member: George Miller (D-CA)† Bobby Scott (D-VA) Ruben Hinojosa (D-TX) Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY)† John Tierney (D-MA)† Rush Holt (D-NJ)† Susan Davis (D-CA) Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) Tim Bishop (D-NY) David Loebsack (D-IA) Joe Courtney (D-CT) Marcia Fudge (D-OH) Jared Polis (D-CO) Gregorio Sablan (D-MP) Fredrica Wilson (D-FL) Mark Pocan (D-WI) Mark Takano (D-CA) Chairman: John Kline (R-MN) Thomas Petri (R-CA) Buck McKeon (R-CA)† Joe Wilson (R-SC) Virginia Foxx (R-NC) Tom Price (R-GA) Kenny Marchant (R-TX) Duncan Hunter (R-CA) David Roe (R-TN) Glenn Thompson (R-PA) Tim Walberg (R-MI) Matt Salmon (R-AZ) Brett Guthrie (R-KY) Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) Todd Rotika (R-IN) Larry Bucshon (R-IN) Lou Barletta (R-PA) Joe Heck (R-NV) Mike Kelly (R-PA) Susan Brooks (R-IN) Richard Hudson (R-NC) Luke Messer (R-IN) Bradley Byrne (R-AL) Defeated in 2014 Midterm Election *Tossup Race According to the Cook Political Report †Retiring after 2014 Source: National Journal Research, 2014.

Governors/State Results and Impact

State Elections 2014 No 2014 Elections--4 House Only--4 What’s at stake--2014 --Most legislative seats are up for election this year. -- 6049 -- 82% of Legislative Seats up --46 States No Legislative Elections in LA, MS, NJ & VA No Senate elections in KS, NM, MN & SC --36 Governors Races --20 R and 16 D No 2014 Elections--4 House Only--4 Governor Election--36

State Legislatures 2014 Republican- 27 Democrat- 19 Split- 3 2010 was a the best election for Republicans at the state level in decades and they added to that in 2011 -They gained over 740 seats in 2010 and 2011 picking up 22 chambers Pre-election --26 states where Republicans hold both chambers—highest since 1928 when they held 27. --3 are divided--fewest number of divided legislatures since 1944 Chambers: 57 R chambers to 41 D and shifts to 59 R vs 39 D if you move NY and WA senates NE is actually R control and New York and Washington Senates are coalitions so this is actually better for Republicans than it looks Republican- 27 Democrat- 19 Split- 3 Nonpartisan

Party Control Shifts 2014 --11 Chambers Democrat Gains Republican Gains Colorado Senate Maine Senate Minnesota House Nevada Assembly Nevada Senate New Hampshire House New Mexico House New York Senate Washington Senate West Virginia House West Virginia Senate

State Legislatures 2015 Republican - 30 Democrat - 11 Split - 8 Nonpartisan

Governor Party 2014 Republican - 29 Democrat- 21

Governor Party 2015 Republican - 31 Democrat - 18 Undecided - 1 2014 changes Party switches 2014 Penn R to D Tom Wolf Ark D to R Asa Hutchinson Illinois D to R Rauner Maryland D to R Hogan Mass D to R Baker MD D to R Hogan New govs Raimondo in RI Ricketts in NE AZ-Gov. Doug Ducey Republican - 31 Democrat - 18 Undecided - 1

Attorneys General AG’s followed the Republican wave Republicans AG’s increased from 24 to 27 – key pick-ups in AR, NV and TN All incumbents won and all seats considered Republican were held