Global Landcover and Disturbance Analysis NRSM 532 BIOS 534

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Presentation transcript:

Global Landcover and Disturbance Analysis NRSM 532 BIOS 534 April 17, 2017 City Lights from night time images (Chris Elvidge NOAA)

-Biogeochemistry -Genetic bank -Water -Air DYNAMIC GLOBAL LAND TRANSITIONS LANDUSE [Human control] LANDCOVER [Biophysically controlled] Human Systems Ecological Systems HUMAN DECISION MAKING political/economic choices -Institutions Culture Technology Population Economic -Biogeochemistry -Genetic bank -Water -Air Economic Problems -poverty -unequal wealth -war -globalization Ecological Problems pollution diseases food/fibre/fuel shortages overcrowding Ecosystem goods & services clean air/water waste recycling food/fibre/fuel recreation

10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

The world’s forests: take your pick > 60% IGBP Closed forest >10% FAO Official definition > 40% - Forestry definition 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

Cartoon of Bush 1st 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

Uncertainties concerning forest monitoring Different definitions and protocols between and within countries. Very varying national capabilities to monitor forests and land cover. Remote sensing data are often unavailable Costs Satellite acquisition strategies Internationally published results yield uncertain results. No current commitment for many key products and services. 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

Global land cover classification (8 km resolution) Key: 1: Evergreen Needleleaf Forests 2:Evergreen Broadleaf Forests 3: Deciduous Needleleaf Forests 4: Deciduous Broadleaf Forests 5: Mixed Forests 6: Woodlands 7: Wooded Grasslands/Shrubs 8: Closed Bushlands or Shrublands 9: Open Shrublands 10: Grasses 11: Croplands 12: Bare 13: Mosses and Lichens 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

MODIS 500 meter continuous field result for the lower 48 United States Comparing results with USFS forest area estimates by state Percent tree cover threshold at which continuous field area estimate matches USFS estimate. Note much lower threshold used in south west 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

MODIS Phenology Logic

10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

MOD12Q2: Global Vegetation Phenology From Mark Friedl, Boston Univ. First global products for vegetation phenology based on MODIS EVI data released for 2001-2004 Identifies key transition dates in growing season Onset EVI increase Onset EVI maximum Available globally 2001-2004 Legend provides julian date for Onset EVI decrease Onset EVI minimum

Landcover Change

The difference between potential” and “actual” landcover and the role of humans 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

23 March 2001, p. 2294. 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

New York Times June 11, 1992 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

British Colombia, Canada: The bright blue patches are areas of mostly bare ground left after logging. While clearcuts in the 1992 image have likely been replanted, the limited red return from these patches in the 1999 image demonstrate how slowly forest regenerates in these environments. This 1169 Km2 region lost 92 Km2 of forest (10%) from 1992-1999. August 15, 1992 September 12, 1999 Land Cover Classification 4,5,3 (RGB) 049-022 Landsat TM 4,5,3 (RGB) 049-022 Landsat ETM+ 13.1 Km2 Forest Lost/Year 10% Percent Forest Lost 92 Km2 Forest Cover Lost 1992 - 1999 Research Partners 10/08/2002 UNBC Seminar

Landsat Disturbance History Example: Virginia 1985-88 1988-91 1991-95 1995-99 1999-01 Undisturbed Forest Clearing Epoch

Global Forest Cover Change 2000 - 2012 Hansen, M. et al. Science 2013

GLOBAL Generalized Disturbance Index Mildrexler et al 2006 Mildrexler et al 2006

Comparison of Land Surface Temperatures from Aqua MODIS Sahara Desert vs central African Tropical Forest Mildrexler, Zhou, Running. AGU Eos 87:461, 2006

Aqua MODIS Maximum Annual Land Surface Temperature (2003-2009) Mildrexler, Zhou, Running. AGU Eos 87:461, 2006

Comparison of Land Surface Temperatures from Aqua MODIS Irrigated Poplar vs arid Sagebrush, central Oregon Mildrexler, Zhou, Running. AGU Eos 87:461, 2006

Disturbance Impact on Land Biophysics

MODIS Fire Detection YD 211-220, 2006

Time Lag in Biospheric Responses to Changing Climate 700 360 CO2 Concentration (ppm) Relative Change 2100 2150 2000 Year CO2 Land Temperature Phenology, NPP Disturbance Biome Shifts