Strategic Policy Council May 25, 2016

Welcome and Remarks Jennifer Grove Chairman

Today’s Agenda The Goal – Executive Committee Meeting Briefing Measuring Florida’s Progress Performance Funding Model Update Market Intelligence Portal Update

The Goal Michelle Dennard Vice President, Policy

Measuring Florida’s Progress Adrienne Johnston Chief, Bureau of Labor Market Statistics Department of Economic Opportunity

Florida’s Talent Dashboard Strategic Policy Council Meeting May 25, 2016

Florida’s Talent Dashboard Vision Florida will be the global leader for talent Goal Increase the prosperity of workers and employers; reduce welfare dependency; increase economic self-sufficiency; meet employer needs; and enhance worker productivity and business competitiveness.

Increase Worker Prosperity Measure Real Wage of Florida Workers Interpretation Real wages adjust for inflation. An increase in real wages tells us that workers have more purchasing power Does not address Real wages can be driven by price or wage changes

Increase Employer Prosperity Measure Percent of Florida businesses that are expanding employment Interpretation Business environment is conducive to producing more goods or services, thus requiring more employees Does not address The scale of expansion or indication of future growth

Reduce Welfare Dependency Measure Welfare receipts as a percent of personal income Interpretation Personal income is comprised of salaries, wages, bonuses, investment earnings, and welfare Decreasing welfare receipts as a percent of personal income indicates that personal income is increasingly driving by earnings Does not address The distribution of welfare or indicate declines in personal income

Increase Economic Self-Sufficiency Measure Percentage industries paying above a given threshold (i.e. Poverty level, public benefits requirement) Interpretation More industries paying average salaries higher than a specified threshold indicates more workers are earning a self-sufficient wage Does not address Number of workers who qualify for public benefits or wage distributions

Meet Employer Needs Measure Supply – Demand Ratio Interpretation The ability of Florida’s industry to employ the number of workers looking for work Ratio of 1 means there are exactly enough workers to fill open jobs Does not address How workers align to job openings based on training, skills or occupation

Increase Worker Productivity Measure Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Interpretation GDP is an overall measure of economic productivity Increases in this measure can, at least in part, be attributed to increases in worker productivity Does not address Population and non-labor related influences on GDP

Enhance Business Competitiveness Measure Industries that employ more workers than the national average (location quotient above 1) Interpretation The relative strength of employment Florida’s industries to the nation Larger values indicate greater diversification Does not address Other measures used to compare industries to the nation

Next Steps Refine metrics based on feedback Develop secondary metrics to address issues identified Develop interactive tool to display dashboard Continue to refine based on feedback

Performance Funding Model Update Aaron Schmerbeck, Ph.D. Chief Economist

Introduction Updates to the PFM to take effect July 1, 2016. Updates to metrics Data sources Common Measures Gateway Web-based performance reporting Minimum threshold negotiation Performance Snapshot: Business Engagement We expect performance dollars for FY 2015-16 to be awarded in January 2017.

Long-Horizon Metrics Average Earnings Earnings per Dollar Spent Earnings from the two quarters after exit. Earnings per Dollar Spent Total earned during the two quarters after exit divided by total formula funds spent. Customer Satisfaction How satisfied were businesses that received business engagement surveys?

Updates to Short-Horizon Metrics Time to Earnings FY 2015-16: “How long did it take people to find a job?” FY 2016-17: “How long have people been without a job?” Business Engagement Performance targets that account for response rates.

Data Sources Participant Data Demographic Data FY 2015-16: Quarterly ETA tables FY 2016-17: Nightly data extracts from EFM Demographic Data FY2016-17: Moody’s Analytics county-level forecasts and proprietary economic indicators.

Common Measures Gateway If DEO deems a local board to be out of compliance (having missed its goal on the same metric two years in a row), that board will not be eligible for incentive funds through the PFM in accordance with existing policy. The PFM is a supplement to, not a substitute for, Common Measures.

Web-Based Performance Reporting Existing system focused on Common Measures. We are developing a similar system focused on the PFM (development ongoing, July webinar) Performance: How the PFM works – additional credit, metrics, TIE model (clickable). See past performance. Strategic: Analyze PFM relevant data (case-level drill down). Make data-driven decisions. Policy: Analyze system-wide performance. Set data- driven policy.

Minimum Threshold Negotiation Boards will receive targets for FY 2016-17 in the June PFM monthly update and webinar. Boards may decrease some minimum thresholds at the expense of increasing others.

Business Engagement (As of May 12, 2016) Top Performance Scores CareerSource Okaloosa Walton 112% CareerSource Escarosa 101% CareerSource Research Coast 99% CareerSource Brevard 98% Top Response Rates (scores above 40) CareerSource Heartland 85% CareerSource Okaloosa Walton 70% CareerSource Gulf Coast 42% CareerSource Pasco Hernando 40%

Webinar Schedule June: Performance Target Statistical Model July: Web-Based Performance Reporting August: Long-Horizon Metrics

Market Intelligence Portal Update: Research Coast Skills Gap Assessment Aaron Schmerbeck, Ph.D. Chief Economist

Standard Occupational Classification to Classification of Instructional Program: Nursing - LPN

Research Coast Supply and Demand Analysis: Nursing - LPN

Research Coast Supply Institutions: Nursing - LPN

Research Coast Jobs: Nursing - LPN

Thank You!