The impact of FRS response times on fire, RTC and Special service loss of life: statistical evidence Greenstreet Berman Ltd, Michael Wright www.greenstreet.co.uk Michael.Wright@greenstreet.co.uk T: 020-3102-2117 Research, evaluation, consultancy Used IRS data 2009-2011, commissioned by DCLG to get an update on profile of people dieing in fires using IRS data Answer questions – why need data - who is most at risk Briefly discuss data sources

2012 DCLG funded research IRS data (2009-2011) allows analysis of response times re: Fires Special services RTCs 2nd and 3rd response time Serious injuries vs response times https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/2012-updates-to-the-fire-service-emergency-cover-toolkit-special-service-and-fire-fatality-rate-response-time-relationships

Dwelling fire casualties (1 minute time bands)

Dwelling Fire response time fatality rates (IRS data, 27219 casualties) 5.9% 7.8% = 1 in 12 if in 21 to 25 minutes 19% = 1 in 5 if over 25 minutes So 10 mins seems important exponential

Dwelling fire serious injuries

Other building fire casualties, 3220 casualties

Fire damage (hotels) A linear relationship

Deaths in selected special services attended by English FRSs

Trends in selected FRS special services - England

RTC extrications – 27680 casualties

Medical – co and first responding

“Raw” chest pain response data Relationship less clear with more time categories due to few cases with longer responses times

Co and first responding – does the FRS response time matter? Response times impact survival Chest pain Breathing difficulties Probably – fewer cases Medical other Unconscious No response time impact on survival Lift patient Choking Collapse Shock

Rescue from water

Other transport incidents

Suicide attempts

Do the 2nd appliance response times matter? Fires Able to now plot times for 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th appliance This shows % who die where 2nd appliance is same/slower Need to plot national data for many years for pattern to appear - 19000 casualties Need a good spread of times to see the relationship Similar result if plot 3rd appliance times

Do response times matter? Do the 2nd appliance response times matter? Do response times matter? Many FRS setting response time standards at 10 minutes, some set at 5 mins for high risk areas. Rise from 2.3% (1 in 43) to 3.4% (1 in 30) if 2 in 5 vs 1 in 5 and 1 in 6 to 10 If 2 in 11 to 15 then 5% (1 in 20) die – double chance of death cf to 2 in 5. If 2 in 21 to 25 then 12% die – 5 times more likely to die Consistent with research into smoke toxicology and flash over

RTCs – 2nd response times

Response time trends

Conclusions Strong statistical evidence of FRS response times impacting loss of life in fire, RTCs and some other special services 2nd appliance response times matter for some types of incidents Response times also related to risk of serious injuries for some types of incidents.

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