Regional Patterns and Trends in Canadian Mortality, 1921-2000 Robert Bourbeau1 and Kirill Andreev2 Département de démographie, Université de Montréal , Montréal, Québec and Centre Interuniversitaire d’Études Démographiques (CIED) Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario Presentation for the first HMD Symposium , Rostock (Germany), June 18-19, 2004 MPI for Demographic Research /CEDA University of California Berkeley The authors would like to thank Mélissa Beaudry-Godin, Pascale Prud’homme and Laurie Paquette, graduate students at the Département de démographie, for their valuable assistance

Outline of Presentation CHMD / BDLC (Canadian Human Mortality Database or Base de données sur la longévité canadienne) Trends in Canadian mortality, 1921-2000 Regional mortality differences in Canada, 1921-2000 Sex differentials Provincial deviations from Canadian levels Provincial trends by age groups compared to Canadian trends

Canadian Mortality Database (CHMD) Available now www.bdlc.umontreal.ca Based on Human Mortality Database www.mortality.org

Main Features of Canadian mortality during the 20-th Century Life expectancy at birth, 1921-2000 Canada Provinces Increase in life expectancy at birth by 21 years for males and 24 years for females Difference between male and female life expectancy increased from 2 years in 1921 to 7.3 years in 1976 and then began to decrease, to reach 5.2 years in 2000. Narrowing of the gap between provinces : From 13 to 1.6 years for males From 11.6 to 0.9 years for females

British Columbia Quebec

Saskatchewan Quebec

DATA Age : 0, 1-4, 5-9, …, 90-99, 100+ Year : 1921 to 2000 Sex: Male, Female, Total Regions: Provinces (10) + 2 Territories Number of deaths Exposures

METHODS: Intensity regression models First Model: Age + Sex*Year Age factor: age specific schedule for standard death rates in a specific year (1921) Sex*Year factor: deviation from this schedule for subsequent years (1922 to 2000)

Quebec Ontario

1.11 0.39 0.26

Trends in death rates relative to the age-specific schedule of female mortality in 1921, Age 0-99 Quebec Canada 1.11 1.13 0.34 0.39 0.26 0.21

0.2 0.91 0.08

Trends in death rates relative to the age-specific schedule of female mortality in 1921, Age 20-29 Quebec Alberta 0.21 0.17 0.85 0.8 0.10 0.06 Ontario British Columbia 1.14 1.04 0,28 0.18 0.08 0,12 Source: CHMD

Trends in canadian death rates relative to the age-specific schedule of female mortality in 1921, Age 50-59 1,06 0,48 . 0,3

Trends in death rates relative to the age-specific schedule of female mortality in 1921, Age 50-59 1,10 1,15 0,46 0,5 0,35 0,27 1,15 1,08 0,46 0,46 0,3 0,3 Source: CHMD

METHODS: Intensity regression models Second Model: Age + Province Applied separately to age groups, sex and year Province factor: relative deviation of provincial death rates from Canadian levels by age groups

Log of relative deviation of death rates in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia as compared with Canada, age group 20-29, 1921-2000 Females Males Log deviation Log deviation 2000 2000 Source:CHMD

Log of relative deviation of death rates in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia as compared with Canada, age group 50-59, 1921-2000 Females Males Log deviation Log deviation 2000 2000 Source:CHMD

METHODS: Intensity regression models Third Model: Age + Year *Province Age factor: age specific schedule for Canadian death rates in 1921 Year * Province factor: deviation from this schedule for subsequent years (1922 to 2000) .

Trends in death rates relative to age-specific schedule of canadian mortality in 1921, Age 20-29 Females Males Log deviation Log deviation 2000 2000 Source:CHMD

Trends in death rates relative to age-specific schedule of canadian mortality in 1921, Age 50-59 Females Males Log deviation Log deviation 2000 2000 Source:CHMD

CONCLUSION CHMD: A unique opportunity for regional mortality analysis in Canada. Sex differentials Age-specific profiles Provincial differentials