Data Book Review & Discussion Biometric & Spectral Analysis 2004/2005 Forest Watch Data Book Review & Discussion Biometric & Spectral Analysis

Figure 1: New FW Teachers Trained 2003 = 20 2004 = 31 2005 = 20 2005 New Forest Watch Schools By State: NH =11 MA = 5 CT = 2 ME =1

Distribution of Active Forest Watch Teachers & Schools Total = 236 Teachers Total = 179 Schools

A Bad Ozone Day for New England Ozone Summary 2004 NEW AQI 8-hour Average Peak Concentration                       0-50 ppb 51-100 ppb 101-150 ppb 151-200 ppb 201-300 ppb OLD AQI A Bad Ozone Day for New England July 22 2004 1-hour Average Peak Concentration                       0-60 ppb Good 61-79 ppb 80-99 ppb Moderate 100-110 ppb 111-124 ppb Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups 125+ ppb Unhealthy On June 15 2005 the EPA revoked the old 1 hr standard for the new 8-hr standard. One aspect of this policy in transition is a change in the AQI (Air Quality Index), the system used by the EPA for displaying health risks associated with varying levels of ground-level ozone. This years OZONE summary uses only data representing the 8hr ozone standard where in past years both standards were displayed in most figures and discussions.

Figure 27: Trend in 8-Hour Ozone Levels, 1982-2003, Averaged across EPA Regions Based on Annual 4th Maximum 8-Hour Average Figure 26: Areas in the US which have been designated as non attainment areas to the new 8-hr ozone standard as designated by the EPA Officially on June 15, 2005. Areas which have seen the greatest reductions in ozone levels are same areas that are still out of compliance to the new standard State, tribal and local governments must submit SIP’s (State Implementation Plans) To the EPA by 2007, documenting how they will meet compliance by 2010.

Figure 28: Number of ozone 8-hr exceedances, compared to the number of days with temperatures greater than 90ºF, as measured at Bradley Airport outside Hartford, CT.

Figure 30: Graph of the Number of Exceedence Days by State in Region 1:New England from1983-2003 based on the 8-hr standard. Source : http://www.epa.gov/region01/airquality/standard.html

Averaged 4 highest 8 hour ozone concentrations & The number of 8hr exceedances for 2004. Similar to 2003, the 2004 summer was another year of good air quality and low ozone exceedance days With few exceptions, urban and coastal monitoring sites were the only areas that experienced ozone levels high enough to exceed the 8-hr standard in 2004.

since Forest Watch began. 2003 and 2004 are our highest REIP values. Figure 4: REIP vs. Ozone from six NH schools from 1991-2004. In 2004, mean monthly max ozone increased some while REIP remained elevated and although monthly max increased, exceedances were lower in region 1 for 2004 than in 2003. In 2004, high REIP values corresponded to low ozone values as they have in most years since Forest Watch began. 2003 and 2004 are our highest REIP values. Spearman’s coefficient of correlation: (1998 = -0.81) (2002 = -0.39) (2003 = -0.51) (2004 = -0.53) Probability: 1998 = <0.05 2000 = <0.20 2004 = <0.05

REIP vs. OZONE, (All NH Schools vs. Original Schools) Figure 6: Number of trees used in analysis of REIP vs. ozone for the original six schools (Figure 4) & number of trees for REIP vs. ozone for all NH schools (Figure 8).

Figure 8: REIP vs. Ozone – All New Hampshire Schools. Results are very similar between All NH schools and the original schools vs. REIP. Slight differences are seen in many years, however no differences exceed 2nm 2 nanometers is the resolving power of the VIRIS, signifying that the differences seen Are not statistically significant.

Both studies show a steady rise in REIP values between 1991 & 2004 Figure 7: REIP values for the original six schools compared to all NH Schools from 1991-2004. Both studies show a steady rise in REIP values between 1991 & 2004 Overlapping error bars show us again that the differences between the two datasets are not significant Smaller error bars in the larger all NH Schools dataset give us confidence that the results from this study accurately reflect the chlorophyll levels from year to year

2004 White Pine REIP Distribution

Long Term Analysis of Selected Student Collected Biometric Data Photos by: Louise James Students from Sewell-Anderson School Lynn MA. Spring 2005

Drought Years 1991, 1995, 1997, 2001 (1993, 2002 summers) (1999, Spring and Summer) Wet Years 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003,2004 Figure 12. Figure 13 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/nt.html

Figure 14: Average Yearly Needle Retention 1992-2004.

Figure 15: Average Annual Needle & Fascicle Length 1992-2004. Average needle length is always slightly shorter than average fascicle length. Including the fascicle and measuring the longest needle should give us the results we see above, showing us that students are making careful measurements! Low precipitation in 1992 (spring) & 1997 (annual) correlate well with reduced needle length. Increased length in 1995 and 2001 does not correlate with the dry conditions. A steady decrease in needle length is seen from 1998 -2002. This trend could be the result of a series of mini droughts (1999, 2001 & 2002). Needle length may be on the rise if precipitation levels continue to be above average as they were in 2003 and 2004.

general precipitation trends for the northeast region Water content data & general precipitation trends for the northeast region correlate well for some years 1995,1997,1999,2000, 2003 …and not so well for others 1992, 1996 Figure 16: Percent needle water content 1992-2004 Relationships might be even Stronger if we factor in spring vs. fall sample dates and use more specific precipitation data and conduct this analysis on a state to state basis.

A Closer look at water content data comparing two different methods with state specific spring precipitation Outliers are present in both data sets With outliers removed the relationship between spring preipitation and needle water content is nearly perfect. Gilmanton rs = +0.83 Mabel I Wilson rs = +0.95 Figure 17: Percent needle water content for Gilmanton Middle School1996-2004 Figure 18: Percent needle water content Mabel I Wilson Elementary School 1996-2004

Figure 21: Mean Percent Needle Damage Length 1996-2003. Figure 22: Average Percent Needle Damage calculated by Forest Watch students and UNH researchers.

Figure 20: Percentage of both symptoms (chlorotic mottle & Tip Necrosis) vs. REIP, 1996-2004