Journalism 614: Public Opinion and Policy Making

Changes in Global Warming Opinion

Changes in Global Warming Opinion

Same-Sex Marriage Opinion

Same-Sex Marriage Opinion by Party ID

Public Opinion on Immigration Policy

Public Opinion on Immigration by Party

Opinion and Policy What influence do these indicators of public opinion have on public policy? Are our elites responsive to public opinion? Do special interests have a greater influence over policy making than public opinion? Under what conditions do governments act in accordance with mass opinion?

Policy Responsiveness “Open interplay of opinion and policy is the distinguishing mark of popular rule” - H. Lasswell A normative view of democracy Concerns the way things should be Conversely, “Democratic government only amounts to a hoax, a ritual whose performance serves only to delude the people and thereby to convert them into willing subjects of the powers that be -- V.O. Key

Various Possibilities Public opinion constrains public policy Public opinion exerts strong influence to direct or redirect government policy Public opinion ignored in policy making, while special interest and corporate voices are heard Public opinion is molded by elites into alignment with preferred policies

Opinion as Policy Influence Domestic Policy Civil Rights Act - Calls for desegregation Roe v. Wade - Growing support for abortion Capital Punishment - Legalized, again but… Foreign policy Vietnam War - Public Call for Withdrawal China in UN - Public Opposition Eroded War in Iraq - Declining Support for Troops

Opinion Ignored, Sometimes Reduce Foreign Aid Cut Back on Space Program Support School Prayer Support More Stringent Gun Control Often the influence of strong lobbying groups Often in response to international threats

Responsiveness Heightened When… Elected officials more responsive near elections - often through party influence Elected officials who view themselves as “delegates” — not “politicos” — respond Elected officials respond to interest groups that reflect the views of public groups Aggregate and articulate: Democratic pluralism Elected officials respond to dominant elites

Evidence of Responsiveness Monroe - studied 500 cases of consistency or inconsistency between government policy and majority public opinion Consistent 55% between 1980-1993 Decline from 63% during the 1960-79 period Foreign policy decisions tended to be among the most consistent – 67% in both periods In cases of inconsistency, public wanted change but government stayed with the status quo

Examining Response to Change Page and Shapiro - Do changes in opinion produce changes in policy? Policy congruent with opinion 66% of time The larger the shift in the opinion the more responsive government was to opinion

Examining Issue Salience Burstein - Issue salience enhances the impact of elite responsiveness to opinion The impact of opinion remains strong even when the activities of political organizations and elites are taken into account Responsiveness appears not to have changed significantly over time

Localized Responsiveness Vietnam and Troop Withdrawals Defense Spending Respond to aggregated national opinion Roll Call Voting - Community Focused Miller and Stokes find that elected officials are responsive to the opinions of constituents Greater for highly salient issues - e.g., Race

Ideological Responsiveness Respond to ideological climate — public mood — not specific policy preferences The notion of “public sentiment” Sense of support for an ideology Used as basis for range of policies Long-term responsiveness of ideological mood to public policy change Stimson, MacKuen, & Erikson

Portrait of Responsiveness? Do we have democratic decision-making through the influence of mass opinion? If policies don’t reflect view of majority or growing minority, who do they support? Is the government responsive or do they move opinion in advance of policy change? How is opinion manufactured to support certain perspectives?