The Amazing Race By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. On Behalf of NAIOP – MD/DC Chapter By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. December 9, 2009

Biggest Loser

Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2010* Source: International Monetary Fund *2009-2010 data are projections

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas, 2009 Source: International Monetary Fund

Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2008 % Change 3 London SE FTSE 100 -31.3% 1 NYSE Group DJI A -33.8% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -34.2% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -35.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -39.6% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -40.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -40.2% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 -41.5% 5 Euronext CAC 40 -42.6% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -47.9% 10 Borsa Italiana MIBTel -48.5% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -65.4% Source: Yahoo! Finance

Top 12 Stock Exchanges Sep. 30, 2008-Nov. 30, 2009 Growth Rank Exchange Index Growth 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 47.0% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 21.1% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB 12.4% 3 London SE FTSE 100 5.9% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General 3.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 2.5% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -2.6% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -3.5% 1 NYSE Group DJI A -4.7% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -5.9% 5 Euronext CAC 40 -8.7% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 -17.0%

American Idle

Recession Watch as of May 2009 Source: Moody’s Economy

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2009Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Recession Watch as of November 2009 Source: Moody’s Economy

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through November 2009 11/09: -11k Between November 2008 and November 2009, the U.S. lost 4.8 million jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, ADP January 2001 through November 2009 Source: ADP

National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups November 2008 v National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups November 2008 v. November 2009 Absolute Change -4,759k All Told Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) October 2008 v. October 2009 Absolute Change MD Total: -51.2K; -2.0% US Total: -5,504K; -4.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2008 v. October 2009 Absolute Change Baltimore Total: -28.9K; -2.2% MD Total: -51.2K; -2.0% US Total: -5,504K; -4.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2008 v. October 2009 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: -25.7K; -1.1% US Total: -5,504K; -4.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) October 2009 Rank State Rate 1 NORTH DAKOTA 4.2 17 MINNESOTA 7.6 35 INDIANA 9.8 2 NEBRASKA 4.9 19 NEW MEXICO 7.9 MISSISSIPPI 3 SOUTH DAKOTA 5.0 20 MAINE 8.2 37 GEORGIA 10.2 4 MONTANA 6.4 21 TEXAS 8.3 38 OHIO 10.5 5 UTAH 6.5 22 WISCONSIN 8.4 TENNESSEE VERMONT 23 WEST VIRGINIA 8.5 40 ALABAMA 10.9 7 VIRGINIA 6.6 24 DELAWARE 8.7 41 ILLINOIS 11.0 8 IOWA 6.7 25 CONNECTICUT 8.8 NORTH CAROLINA 9 KANSAS 6.8 PENNSYLVANIA 43 FLORIDA 11.2 NEW HAMPSHIRE 27 ALASKA 8.9 KENTUCKY 11 COLORADO 6.9 MASSACHUSETTS 45 OREGON 11.3 12 OKLAHOMA 7.1 29 IDAHO 9.0 46 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 11.9 13 HAWAII 7.2 NEW YORK 47 SOUTH CAROLINA 12.1 14 MARYLAND 7.3 31 ARIZONA 9.3 48 CALIFORNIA 12.5 15 LOUISIANA 7.4 MISSOURI 49 RHODE ISLAND 12.9 WYOMING WASHINGTON 50 NEVADA 13.0 ARKANSAS 34 NEW JERSEY 9.7 51 MICHIGAN 15.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: October 09’ =10.2%

MD County Unemployment Rates October 2009 Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Montgomery County 5.4 13 Prince George's County 7.4 2 Howard County 5.5 14 Kent County 7.7 3 Saint Mary’s County 5.9 15 Baltimore County 7.8 4 Calvert County 6.0 16 Allegany County 7.9 5 Charles County 6.1 17 Wicomico County 8.3 6 Frederick County 6.2 18 Cecil County 8.8 7 Carroll County 6.5 19 Caroline County 9.1 8 Anne Arundel County 6.7 20 Somerset County 9.6 Queen Anne’s County Washington County 10 Garrett County 7.0 22 Worcester County 10.0 Talbot County 23 Baltimore City 10.8 12 Harford County 7.2 24 Dorchester County 11.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Baltimore/Washington Metros Unemployment Rate January 1999-October 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Baltimore/Washington Metros Employment January 1999-October 2009 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros(NSA) October 2009 Rank MSA UR 1 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC, VA, MD, WV 6.2 11 St. Louis, MO-IL 9.8 2 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 7.1 12 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI 10.3 3 Baltimore-Towson, MD 7.7 13 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 10.4 4 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH 7.9 14 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 10.5 5 Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, TX 8.3 15 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 10.6 6 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 8.5 16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 8.7 17 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 11.7 8 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 8.8 18 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 11.9 9 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 19 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 14.6 10 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 9.1 20 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 16.7 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Stimulus Money Disbursed Per Square Mile, Top 10 States and Balt Stimulus Money Disbursed Per Square Mile, Top 10 States and Balt./Wash Corridor State: As of Nov. 17th Money per miles2 1.D.C. $2,792,048,590 $40,855,262 2.New Jersey 3,897,974,754 446,949 3.Rhode Island 674,700,491 436,685 4.Baltimore-Washington Corridor 707,377,184 428,973 5.Massachusetts 3,881,943,986 367,797 6.Connecticut 1,704,413,930 307,471 7.Maryland 3,178,239,416 256,172 8.Delaware 544,809,215 218,863 9.New York 10,593,282,081 194,173 10.South Carolina 3,822,471,173 119,377 Source: Recovery.gov

Trading Spaces

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through October 2009 Source: Freddie Mac

U.S. Existing Home Sales September 2001 through October 2009 Source: Economy.com

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through October2009 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999 through October 2009 Source: Economy.com

Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction October 2008 vs Active Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction October 2008 vs. October 2009 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Oct. 2008: 49,601 Oct. 2009: 42,521

Active Housing Inventory by Suburban MD October 2008 vs. October 2009 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Oct. 2008: 49,601 Oct. 2009: 42,521

Source: National Association of Realtors Current Hot Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3 Boston, MA: -7.0% New York, NY: -14.1% Philly, PA: -5.6% Baltimore, MD: -6.5% Washington, DC: -2.5% Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3

Source: National Association of Realtors Worst Performing Metro Housing Markets (150) Annual Existing Single-Family Home Price Appreciation 2008Q3 vs. 2009Q3 Source: National Association of Realtors U.S.: -11.2% in 2009Q3

Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates, Prime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency for … 2009 Q2: 6.41% 2009 Q3: 6.84% Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 0.7 percent of Fixed Rate prime loans and 3.4 percent of all adjustable rate prime loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter.

Mortgage Banker’s Association Delinquency Rates Subprime Mortgage Loans 2005Q2 through 2009Q3 National Mortgage Delinquency for … 2009 Q2: 25.35% 2009 Q3: 26.42% Source: Economy.com The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure.  The percentage of fixed rate subprime loans in the foreclosure process was 2.6 percent while those with adjustable rates were 4.9 percent.

Commercial Real Estate Loans January 2001 through October 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Board

Metropolitan Office Vacancy Rates 3rd Quarter 2009 Source: CB Richard Ellis

Local Office Vacancy Rates 3rd Quarter 2009 Source: CB Richard Ellis

Fear Factor

Conference Board Consumer Expectations Index October 2001 through November 2009 Source: Conference Board

U.S. Retail & Food Services Sales January 2001 through October 2009 Source: Dismal.com

U. S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store October 2008 vs U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store October 2008 vs. October 2009 Source: Economy.com

U.S. Personal Savings Rate January 2002 through October 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Energy Information Administration

Overview of where the $787 billion is going Source: Recovery.gov

U.S. Federal Budget Deficit 1995-2010* Source: Congressional Budget Office *2009-2010 data are projections

America’s Next Top Model Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus; We’ve seen the worst of it from a broader economic perspective; Too soon to tell if inflation will be problematic; U.S. dollar may be the economic element to watch; BRAC; Washington/Baltimore region will continue to outperform and the degree of outperformance will probably surprise you; Next year represents a year of moderate improvement; & 2011????

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