The changing path to adulthood for girls in sub-Saharan Africa over the last 20 years Jane Mariara, Andy McKay, Andy Newell and Cinzia Rienzo Presented by: Andy McKay, University of Sussex a.mckay@sussex.ac.uk

Introduction Youth employment a world wide challenge, especially pressing in sub-Saharan Africa Educational attendance has increased significantly over recent decades Though questions about quality Despite this most young people end up working in household activities or informal wage work School to work transition a key challenge

Introduction (2) Issues likely to be especially pressing for young girls May be less educated May have less access to better jobs But issue of potential early marriage and childbirth another important element of school to work transition for young women

Introduction (3) This paper part of a project studying school to work transition for young women in six sub-Saharan African countries Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda Funded by IDRC Canada, as part of their research programme on Growth Opportunities for Women Studies in each country; here a cross country study

The issues Fundamental two way causality between age of leaving school and work Three way when considering childbirth (or marriage) in the case of girls Some studies have tried to tackle this, using duration modelling based on an exogenous intervention Heath and Mobarek 2015: garments in Bangladesh or good quality data, including on exclusion restrictions: Marchetta and Sahn, 2016, Senegal

The issues (2) Here we seek to do a comparative study between our six countries Focus on differences between countries, females and males, and changes over time Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys: available on multiple waves in all countries A necessarily non-causal analysis Seek to do more causal studies at country level as part of project

Demographic and Health Survey data Same core questionnaire (mostly) in each country and over time Enables comparability, unlike household surveys Surveys focus on young women of childbearing age, their households and some young men of similar ages Good source on fertility, marriage etc. Plus general information on educational attainment, and some information on work

Demographic and Health Survey data (2) Focus early and late survey in each country, and on 15-29 year olds Two educational outcomes for 15-20 year olds Having some secondary education Literacy test: ability to read full sentence And two work outcomes for 21-29 year olds Having a white collar job (generally best job) Working in agriculture (own/wage; open to all)

Demographic and Health Survey data (3) And consider a range of correlates Individual: age, marital status Household: size, presence of children, gender of head, household wealth (an index) Location (as a control)

Basic characteristics of young girls(mostly) Majority of 15/16 year olds in school everywhere except Burkina; but the majority of 18 year olds only in Kenya Many girls married by 18, majority by 20 in 4 countries Husbands significantly older on average Married women almost never still in school Literacy rates low, female < male, but both increasing over time; but almost universal for those (few) in white collar jobs

Basic characteristics of young girls (mostly)

Gender and time differences Pool male and female data for early and late surveys for each country and regress outcomes on gender dummy, dummy for later year, interaction (D in D), age and geographic controls

Results for education Literacy increases over time everywhere Men more literate in base year everywhere, but gap eliminated by final year in 4 cases Similar results for secondary education

Results for work k Very few young people have white collar jobs and little increase over time More men have WC jobs in base (except Kenya) but gap not generally eliminated (except Tanzania) by final year More men work in agriculture in base; gender differential eliminated by later year in 2 and reduced in 2 others

Looking at correlates of outcomes Looked at correlates of four outcomes, as function of wealth, household composition, marital status, plus age and geographic controls Selected results presented here but reasonably representative Household wealth a very strong +ve correlate of all educational and work outcomes But sometimes this is parental household, sometimes new household

Correlates of outcomes (2) Worse educational outcomes and less good jobs for married women – not men Though often positive wealth-marriage impact for women Worse outcomes for women -- not men -- when children in household Usually worse educational and work outcomes for women only in mae headed households Wealth has a bigger positive effect for married women

Some tentative conclusions Improvements over time in most outcomes; reduced gender gaps in education only Very few white collar jobs: female or male Wealth definitely matters – esp. married women Marriage, children and having a male head have a much bigger limiting impact on women than men: education and work Early marriage of women and leaving school early go together: need to understand reasons for this

Thank you very much!

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