2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE HARVEY AUG. 17, 24-?? Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: August 25, 2017 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/disasters/BADisasterSupercourse.htm PPT original - http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/55011-56001/55571.ppt

EACH YEAR, 15-30 STORMS OCCUR; SOME CAUSING DISASTERS

THE 2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON

2017: THE FIRST SIX NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS ARLENE – JUNE 9; DIED QUICKLY BRET – JUNE 13; RAIN CINDY – JUNE 19-23; LOTS OF RAIN DON – July 17, DIED IN ATLANTIC EMILY – July 17, DIED IN CARIBBEN FRANKLIN—August 6; a RAINMAKER in NW Caribbean and Yucatan

2017: ADDITIONAL NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS GERT – AUG 13; DIED IN ATLANTIC HARVEY – AUG. 17, Reformed Aug 23; A HUGE RAINMAKER IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AFTER AUG, 25-26 LANDFALL AS CAT 3 HURRICANE IRMA – JOSE –

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY: AUGUST 17, 24--? HARVEY MAY BECOME THE STORM OF 2017 (AND POSSIBLY THE DECADE) AFTER LANDFALL IN TEXAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT (AUG. 25) OR SATURDAY (AUG. 26) MORNING!

CONTINUOUS TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

NOTE: HARVEY MAY MAKE LANDFALL TWICE: ONCE IN TEXAS AND ONCE IN LOUISIANA

HURRICANE HARVEY POISED TO HIT TEXAS FORMING FIRST ON AUGUST 17, DISSIPATING, THEN REFORMING AGAIN ON AUGUST 23, HARVEY BECAME A HURRICANE ON AUG. 24 AND COULD REACH CAT 3 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN TEXAS.

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST: AUGUST 24

HURRICANE HARVEY COULD CAUSE A 12 FOOT SURGE HARVEY MAY CAUSE A DANGEROUS 12 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COAST.

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST: AUGUST 24

HURRICANE HARVEY WILL BE A HUGE RAIN MAKER HARVEY IS EXPETED TO STALL AFTER LANDFALL AND GENERATE UP TO 40-60 CM (16-24 inches) OF RAIN IN HOUSTON AND OTHER LOCALES. EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS LIKELY, POSSIBLY LEAVING SOME COMMUNITIES UNDER WATER FOR DAYS

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST: AUGUST 24

FORECAST OF HARVEY’S IMPACTS INTO AUGUST 30th

OTHER LOCATIONS WILL ALSO RECEIVE RAIN

PREPARATION

BOARDING WINDOWS TO PROTECT AGAINST WIND

GASSING UP FOR EVACUATION

MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY EVACUATION

PREPARTION

FOOD AND WATER: SHELVES ARE NOW BARE

THE NEXT STORM IS ALREADY ON DECK

ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK HAZARDS EXPOSURE RISK VULNERABILITY LOCATION

HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A SEVERE WINDSTORM Entire communities; People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A WINDSTORM INTERACT WITH UNPREPARED COMMUNITIES

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)] DEBRIS STORM SURGE/FLOODS HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE CAUSES OF DAMAGE WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS HURRICANES STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN “DISASTER LABORATORIES” SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., windstorms, floods,…) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . . When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure can be LOST.

THE REASONS ARE . . . The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . . The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . . The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

THE REASONS ARE . . . The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE WINDSTORM HAZARDS PEOPLE & BLDGS. VULNERABILITY LOCATION WINDSTORM RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK RISK GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

TECHNOLOGIES FOR MONITORING, FORECASTING, WARNING, AND DISASTER SCENARIOS ARE VITAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND-STORMS PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY SEVERE WIND-STORM HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WIND-STORMS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL WINDSTORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION IS IMPORTANT

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION PROTECTION TECHNIQIE DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE LAND USE CONTROL COMMUNITY PROTECTION TECHNIQIE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS

STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE TEMPORARY SHELTER INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE) TECHNIQIE SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES FACILITATE RECOVERY