Andrew Siroka, BS, Ninez A Ponce, PhD, Knut Lönnroth, MD

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Association between spending on social protection and tuberculosis burden: a global analysis Andrew Siroka, BS, Ninez A Ponce, PhD, Knut Lönnroth, MD The Lancet Infectious Diseases Volume 16, Issue 4, Pages 473-479 (April 2016) DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00401-6 Copyright © 2016 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Levels of social-protection spending as a percentage of national gross domestic product Levels of social protection exclude health spending. The latest year of available data was used for each country. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016 16, 473-479DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00401-6) Copyright © 2016 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Bivariate association between social protection and tuberculosis prevalence, incidence, and mortality Colours represent World Bank income group and the size of the circle for each country is set to the square root of 2013 case notifications of tuberculosis. Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, France, USA, and Indonesia are labelled to emphasise variations. The latest year of available data was used for each country. GDP=gross domestic product. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016 16, 473-479DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00401-6) Copyright © 2016 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Estimated effect of an increase of one percentage point of GDP in social protection spending on tuberculosis prevalence, incidence, and mortality at different levels Estimates are changes after an increase in social protection spending of 1% of GDP (95% CI bands); n=664 country–years. Models adjusted for GDP per person, levels of health expenditure, adult HIV prevalence, percentage foreign-born, population density, tuberculosis treatment success, and country-level fixed GDP effects. GDP=gross domestic product. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 2016 16, 473-479DOI: (10.1016/S1473-3099(15)00401-6) Copyright © 2016 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Terms and Conditions